Market trends and the impact of tariffs on vehicle pricing are the focal points of this episode. Analysts Jessica Caldwell from Edmunds and Stephanie Valdez Streaty from Cox Automotive discuss the implications of the end of federal EV incentives and the challenges EV makers face in increasing market share by 2030. They explore consumer behavior regarding trade-ins and the hesitancy in pricing announcements for the 2026 model year, highlighting how tariffs are subtly influencing costs without drastic price hikes. The conversation provides valuable insights into the evolving automotive landscape.
Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox Automotive’s director of industry insights, talks about what electric vehicle makers will need to accomplish to hit 25 percent of the light-vehicle market by the end of the decade. Plus, Edmunds Head of Insights Jessica Caldwell weighs in on how tariffs are affecting 2026 model year vehicle pricing so far.
"about how tariffs are affecting model year 2013."
Tariffs are extra taxes on things that come from other countries. They can make cars more expensive and affect how many are sold.
Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods, which can affect the pricing and availability of vehicles in a market. They can lead to higher costs for manufacturers and consumers.
"about how tariffs are affecting model year 2013."
The model year is the year a car is made and sold. It helps people know how new the car is and what features it might have.
The model year refers to the year a vehicle is manufactured and released for sale. It is important for consumers as it can affect the vehicle's features, technology, and resale value.
"about what the end of the federal EV incentives this past week will likely mean for the market going forward."
EV incentives are discounts or tax breaks given by the government to help people buy electric cars. They make electric cars cheaper and encourage more people to use them.
EV incentives are financial benefits provided by governments to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles. These can include tax credits, rebates, or grants aimed at reducing the overall cost of EVs for consumers.
"You think about the Model Y and Model 3 and how impactful those were. I wish Tesla would have come out as an affordable EV."
The Tesla Model 3 is a smaller electric car from Tesla that is more affordable than their other models. It's popular because it can go far on a single charge and is fun to drive.
The Tesla Model 3 is a compact electric sedan that has become one of the best-selling electric vehicles worldwide. It is known for its affordability compared to other Tesla models and offers impressive range and performance.
"...changes in vehicle contenting, trim levels, and then potentially what we've been talking about for quite a long time..."
Trim levels are different versions of a car model that offer various features. For example, a higher trim level might have better technology or more comfortable seats.
Trim levels refer to the different versions of a car model that come with varying features and options. Higher trim levels usually include more luxury features and technology.
"...But it seems like from, at least from the MSRP's changes that we are seeing, they're not necessarily going up massively for 2026..."
MSRP is the price that the car maker suggests you should pay for a new car. It's like a starting point for how much a car should cost.
MSRP stands for Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, which is the price that the manufacturer recommends for the vehicle. It serves as a guideline for dealerships and consumers during the buying process.
"...the trend that also we've talked about too is that we're seeing older trade-ins come in so people have been on the sidelines..."
A vehicle trade-in is when you give your old car to a dealership to help pay for a new one. It can change how much used cars cost and how many are available.
Vehicle trade-ins occur when a consumer offers their old car to a dealership as part of the payment for a new or used vehicle. This process can affect the pricing and availability of used cars in the market.
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This podcast is brought to you by proton dealership IT experts in dealership cyber security and IT management. Interested in a free cyber security compliance or IT consultation? Visit protontex.com. That's PRO-T-O-N-T-E-C-H-S.com. Hey, it's Staley Drive, executive producer Jake Nier here in Detroit. On today's bonus episode of the show, Edmunds head of insights Jessica Caldwell talks about how tariffs are affecting model year 2013.
It's a $26 vehicle pricing so far. But first on Thursday's show, we brought you part of our own Lawrence Isle of interview with Cox Automotive's director of industry insights, Stephanie Valdez-Streeti, about what the end of the federal EV incentives this past week will likely mean for the market going forward. If you missed that, make sure to go back to Thursday's episode and check it out. In this part of the conversation, they talk about what EV makers need to do on the product side of things
in the end of the decade. To go from 9% today to 25% in 2030, I mean, is that like a straight line or who knows? Yeah, I think it who knows. It's going to depend on what products are launched, it was there's a change in administration. It was a lot of different things that could happen in first structure if that continues to grow and resonate.
You think about the Model Y and Model 3 and how impactful those were. I wish Tesla would have come out as an affordable EV. That would have done really well for the industry, but I think there are a lot of dependencies to get into that 24% by 2030. Because that's close, it's around the corner, right?
Do you think 2026 will still be around 9%? Yeah, we're thinking 99%. Yeah, I think with 2026, the same around around 9% or 2%.
Okay, so we'll have like the first quarter may not be great, but like the second, third, fourth, the automakers who offer their own incentives, new models will come out. I mean, the automakers got to keep things rolling. I mean, at least at a 9% level, no?
They do. That's a thing they've had made so much investments. We've already seen like what GMF4 are doing with the, you know, extending the 7500 for least vehicles.
And we saw Hyundai with their IONIC, they're going to offer 7500 off on the 25 models, they're reducing the price of the 2026 models. So I think they're going to have to figure out how to navigate this period.
And then I guess also looking broadly, just, you know, be able to compete globally, you know, China already has a huge head start on the US. And so, you know, what's our, how are we going to compete in that market?
Yeah, it's funny. Ford has some interesting EVs in Europe. They don't bring to us. Yeah, I know. I just, and I thought Toyota, like just in China is the BZ3. I think they're just launching, which is doing well. Like it's your right. So I think very well.
Yeah, so I think we're seeing that. And just it's, I think it's just, you know, in the US market, as you know, we've had like this care and stick thing. And now that's gone. And so the market's going to have to really figure out how to move forward with ever product, more affordable product and educating consumers on why EVs have a good option for them.
Get them behind the wheel.
Our own Lonnie Eiliff spoke with Cox Automotive Director of Industry Insights, Stephanie Valdes Streetie coming up. We'll hear from Edmunds head of insights, Jessica Caldwell about another issue challenging vehicle affordability for the 2026 model year. President Trump's trade war.
That's next on this bonus episode of daily drive.
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Automotive news shift podcast brings you the latest on automotive technology trends and transformation. I'm Hannah Lutz.
And I'm Molly Boygon. We're the new co-host of shift. And we're excited to bring you new conversations with experts and industry insiders like this one with Larry Dominique, president of LD Management Consulting.
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Cut shift available every Sunday wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome back. Last month at Automotive News Congress, our own Lindsey Van Hully spoke with experts about what they expect to see for the US-like vehicle market the rest of this year and going forward.
In this part of the conversation, Edmunds head of insights Jessica Caldwell talks about how tariffs are affecting prices and the effects of automaker uncertainty on those decisions.
We also hear a bit in this clip from Emily Kolinsky Morris, Chief Economist at Ford.
I think that we'll see the cost passed in a few ways. I mean, so far right now for a 2026 model year.
The one thing we have noticed is there haven't been announced as much. Usually you see generally a high rate of them pricing be announced by this point of the year. I'd say it's over 50% right now. It's probably closer to 30%.
So that means there may be some hesitancy to release that pricing. So you could see a little bit of change in that regard.
The other thing though, we have seen is an increase in destination prices. In 2025 model year, the average destination was over $1,500, which I don't know, to me that seems pretty high.
That's another way, I think, that you could see some cost increases and then also changes in vehicle contenting, trim levels, and then potentially
what we've been talking about for quite a long time is the diminishing of promotion. So it feels like those are ways in which consumer can really see the effects of the tariffs without necessarily seeing that massive blanket increase in cost that we people keep talking about that we have not yet to see.
But it seems like from, at least from the MSRP's changes that we are seeing, they're not necessarily going up massively for 2026. And even for 2025, there was a lot of thought that for those model year vehicles that we've sold in the past few months that those would see increases.
But I think when we looked just a few weeks ago at the aggregate of all MSRP's in August versus March after the tariffs were announced, the difference was less than 1%, it was like 0.8%.
So it wasn't as if everyone went out and changed their prices right away. And the ones that actually did go up were for obvious reasons like every fresh or a trim level or engine change.
You talked about the 2026 model year. Do you see 2026 calendar year? Does some of this begin to impact consumers then maybe in the year ahead? Is it one of those things that it's sort of hard to tell?
Things might settle out maybe there'll be a little bit more certainty that comes.
I mean I think that consumers are definitely looking to see what's going on and obviously the fact that that prices have not skyrocketed which they were afraid that they were definitely helps.
I mean the trend that also we've talked about too is that we're seeing older trade-ins come in so people have been on the sidelines and they're trading in their vehicle.
And I think what's interesting about that is just that you would see a 9-year-old vehicle and assume maybe you want to buy a used car or something that's old.
But these are people that probably, I've told this to dealers, are probably not necessarily the typical 9-10-year-old trader and customer that would buy a used vehicle.
Maybe buying something actually quite expensive because they've been quite conservative about what they're doing but they've got to a point where repair bills or mileage is just too high at that point.
So taking that opportunity especially at the service department to convert that customer is an opportunity.
But it's definitely the sort of the trend that we've been seeing.
We saw that during cash for clunkers too and I think people don't say that word.
Didn't mean to give you PTSD there but people don't appreciate I think how many buyers are out there that are upper income, buy vehicle and hold it until it falls apart.
Financially responsible.
Absolutely.
I mean we had a lot of really high-fight-go-score buyers coming in during that period.
I won't mention it again.
With super old cars and super high-fight-go-scores and paying cash, literally cash for...
Yeah, it's just that I think that chart that you generally see of the average age of a trade-in versus what they buy new were used is always just skewed one way and all of a sudden it's starting to look slightly different.
But when you look at the income levels now that definitely supports that.
The amount of used buyers that have very high income is pretty changed a lot.
Jessica Caldwell is head of insights for Edmonds and Emily Kalinsky Morris is chief economist for Ford.
They spoke with reporter Lindsey Van Holley at Automotive News Congress in Detroit.
Thanks for listening to this bonus episode of Daily Drive.
We'll be back on Monday with a brand new full episode of the show.
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