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Our 2026 Belgian GP predictions

Our 2026 Belgian GP predictions

P1 with Matt and Tommy Jul 15, 2026 44 min
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About this episode

The P1 crew run through their 2026 Belgian GP predictions, mixing race-weekend picks with F1 rumor watch. They start with FIA scrutiny around Red Bull’s “Macarena wing” and rear-wing reliability, then debate driver-swap chatter and why Max Verstappen to McLaren seems unlikely. Weather and wet aero take center stage at Spa, with rain-linked rear-wing expectations and pole picks for Leclerc or Russell. They also dig into refuelling debates, Audi’s 2030 ambitions, and what could make Spa a “banger.”

Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Term

Macarena wing

"So the first one is that the FIA is now speaking to Red Bull and Ferrari about the Macarena wing."

The “Macarena wing” is a nickname for a particular rear-wing aerodynamic concept used in F1 discussions, likely referring to a distinctive shape or movement/behavior that drew attention. The key point here is that the FIA is reportedly speaking to teams about whether it’s compliant and safe.

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FIA

"So the first one is that the FIA is now speaking to Red Bull and Ferrari about the Macarena wing."

FIA is the organization that makes and enforces the rules for Formula 1. If there’s a rules question—like whether a car part is legal—the FIA is usually involved.

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Brand

Ferrari

"So the first one is that the FIA is now speaking to Red Bull and Ferrari about the Macarena wing."

Ferrari is a famous Formula 1 team. In this discussion, they’re mentioned because the FIA is reportedly talking with them about a wing design.

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Red Bull

"Oh, yeah, it's it's finally sort of rearing its ugly head potentially, especially in the Red Bull camp, because of the fact Max has had two rear wing related incidents"

Red Bull is a Formula 1 racing team. Here, they’re being talked about because of a possible issue or investigation related to a car wing.

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Topic

rear wing changes and reliability concerns

"…moved to a more conventional wing for this upcoming Grand Prix weekend. How much time that will lose them? … where you're worried about a rear wing failure again."

They talk about changing the car’s rear wing setup and whether it will make the car slower. They also mention why reliability matters—because a wing problem can be dangerous.

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rear wing failure

"…you don't want to be going to a track like Spa, where it's a very dangerous circuit, where you're worried about a rear wing failure again."

The rear wing is the big aero part on the back of an F1 car. If it fails, the car can lose grip and become harder to control, because that wing helps push the car down onto the track.

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Topic

Piastri-Verstappen swap rumor

"…the Oscar Piatri and Max for Stappen swap became quite the forefront in Formula One chatter. … Mark Webber… has said that essentially the swap is complete fiction."

They’re talking about a rumor that Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen could swap teams or roles. They also discuss how a single tweet can trigger a lot of speculation.

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Oscar Piatri

"…there was this… the Oscar Piatri and Max for Stappen swap became quite the forefront in Formula One chatter."

Oscar Piastri is an F1 driver. The hosts are talking about rumors that involve him and Max Verstappen, and whether that rumor is real or just talk.

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Mark Webber

"And it turns out that Mark Webber, of course, Oscar Piatri's manager has said that essentially the swap is complete fiction."

Mark Webber is a former Formula 1 driver who now works with teams/drivers behind the scenes. They mention him because he’s denying the rumor about a driver swap.

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Carlos Sainz

"You know, we always think that- [442.1s] Carlos Sainz at Ferrari, right? [443.3s] Exactly."

Carlos Sainz is a Formula 1 race driver. The hosts mention him to illustrate how teams can back a driver—until they decide they need a change.

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refuelling

"But there's been further discussions around this V8 era, [461.3s] 2031, maybe 2030 if they get agreement, and essentially the idea of refuelling, bringing that back as well, because they would want to keep the lighter Formula One car as a thing."

Refuelling means adding fuel to the car while the race is happening, usually during a pit stop. The hosts are talking about whether Formula 1 might allow it again in future rule changes.

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hybrid engines

"They want to make them lighter and lighter, of course, because we know we've gone in the [475.0s] wrong direction with these hybrid engines and how heavy they are and how boat-like they were..."

Hybrid engines use both fuel and electricity to power the car. The hosts are saying that in Formula 1, hybrids have added weight, which changes how the car drives and how teams manage fuel.

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smaller fuel tank

"especially last year, where essentially the only way in which to keep that weight down, [482.0s] to keep the car's nimble, would be to have a smaller fuel tank and therefore have refuelling [486.8s] in races."

A smaller fuel tank means the car starts with less fuel. The hosts are saying that helps keep the car lighter, especially when you can’t refuel during the race.

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outlawed back in 2009

"So, that's something that, of course, was outlawed back in 2009 because of safety concerns [493.2s] and things like that."

The hosts are talking about a rule change around 2009 that made refuelling during races illegal. They say it was done for safety reasons.

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pit stops

"But I also do have fond memories, not of, of course, the fires and [500.4s] things that refuelling gave, but the sort of added level and layer of strategy that refuelling [507.4s] always brought to races, the question marks we had after qualifying as well..."

Pit stops are the times when a race car pulls into the pit lane to get serviced. The hosts are saying refuelling would make those stops more important for strategy.

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Schumacher

"the question marks we had after qualifying as well, how much fuel, [519.1s] Schumacher holding, it turns out Schumacher was on pole and had a full fuel tank..."

“Schumacher” is Michael Schumacher, one of the most famous Formula 1 drivers ever. The hosts use him as an example of how refuelling made race strategy and fuel plans more complicated.

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Ross

"And yeah, I do agree that there were some races, you know, the ones that spring to mind and Michael Schumacher and Ross [556.8s]..."

The transcript mentions “Ross,” but it doesn’t include enough information to know which Ross the host means. So we can’t confidently identify the person from this snippet alone.

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DRS

"And so the other side to that coin is that people would just... You just wait for people to pit and all the overtaking would turn the pit lane, which is why they've brought a lot of these things in. Recent years, obviously DRS now with the boost and stuff."

DRS is a Formula 1 system that briefly helps cars go faster by reducing air resistance. It’s mainly used to make it easier to pass other cars, especially on long straight sections.

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V8

"The V8 thing? Yes, definitely. I would like to see that. I do completely back the whole era of simpler engines."

V8 means an engine with eight cylinders arranged in a V shape. The host is basically saying they’d like Formula 1 to go back to simpler, more classic-sounding engines.

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Concept

minimum pit stop time

"I think they'd explore even to a level of like a minimum pit stop time if refuelling was to come back."

A minimum pit stop time is a rule that sets a lower limit on how fast teams can finish a pit stop. It would help prevent refuelling from becoming too dominant and would also add a safety buffer.

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Place

Bahrain

"Now, other discussions that are happening is that Bahrain is trying to get back onto the Formula One calendar potentially in the first weekend of October."

Bahrain is where one of the Formula 1 races is held. The host is talking about whether it might be scheduled again and whether it would be safe to race there.

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Place

Saudi Arabia

"I really thought if any of those two cancelled races were going to come back, I feel like Saudi Arabia would be the place that would not take no for an answer and throw money at it and say no, we absolutely have to a race..."

Saudi Arabia is a country that has hosted Formula 1 races. The host is guessing it would be the one most willing to fight to keep or restore a race on the calendar.

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season opener

"It's money versus money, right? Bahrain also throws an insane amount of money because they are the season opener. So they both have significant cash, but I think it's more about one finding a slot in the calendar, but two and more importantly, whether they can actually go racing without any concern for safety."

The “season opener” is the very first race of the year. The idea here is that the first race is especially important, so it can come with bigger money and attention.

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V8 era

"Yeah. I mean, what we've just discussed as well about, oh, you know, if all the teams agree, then they can bring this V8 era to 2030. And it's like Audi have said they're going"

In Formula 1, the engine rules change over time. “V8 era” means the period when the cars are built around V8-style engine regulations, before the sport switches to a new rules package.

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promotional tires

"Of course, they will have promotional tires. They've got an extra practice, the FP0 they've done."

Promotional tires are special tire sets provided for a limited purpose—often for a track debut, media run, or early session—rather than the tires intended for the main race weekend. Because they can differ in compound and behavior, they can limit how much teams learn for race conditions.

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FP0

"They've got an extra practice, the FP0 they've done. They've had FP0 on tires that, of course, won't be the tires that they'll be running during that weekend."

FP0 is an extra practice session before the main practice sessions in an F1 weekend. Teams use it to collect data and get the car ready, sometimes on different tires than you’ll see later.

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limited mileage

"And it will be limited mileage, it's promotional, whatever you want to call it."

Limited mileage means teams can only run those special tires for a limited number of laps. So they don’t get as much real-world testing as they would in normal practice.

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grip

"FP1, we're going to hear every single non-stop team radio is going, I've got no grip. This circuit is crazy."

Grip is how well the tires can hold the road. If there’s “no grip,” the car can’t turn or brake confidently and feels slippery.

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track limits police

"And I'm wondering if the Ferrari guys were able to take the same track limits lines as I saw. One of the chicanes in it is absolutely insane."

Track limits are the rules about where you’re allowed to drive on the track. The “lines” are the boundaries, and if you go past them, your lap can be penalized or disallowed.

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Chicanes

"One of the chicanes in it is absolutely insane. Just straight line it."

Chicanes are a set of tight turns that force cars to slow down. They make the track harder to drive fast because you have to brake and turn precisely.

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Person

Olly Bearman

"My good surprise, I will hit you with it. I've gone for Olly Bearman. [1026.8s] How dare you utter my boy's name? How dare you?"

Olly Bearman is an F1 driver. The hosts think he could be a surprise at the Belgian Grand Prix if he avoids trouble and has a clean weekend.

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points

"I've not been in the points for a while, of course. Seems like racing balls, [1046.2s] are just the goats when it comes to locking in those kind of final positions in the points now."

In F1, “points” are the scores you earn for finishing in certain positions. Getting points helps a driver and team in the season championship race.

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qualifying

"And Olly, we know he's a great driver, [1059.0s] and if he just has a clean weekend, doesn't get yeeted by someone maybe at turn one, or [1065.4s] manages to do something better in qualifying,"

Qualifying is when drivers try to set their best lap times to decide where they start the race. Starting in a better spot can make the race easier.

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Max Verstappen

"I've already changed it a couple of times, but I'm going to lock in Max Verstappen. [1099.8s] Everyone's writing him off."

Max Verstappen is a famous Formula 1 driver. Here, the hosts are saying he could still win despite problems with his team’s car.

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pit lane

"He wanted to start [1129.0s] from the pit lane. It was that bad."

The pit lane is the area where F1 cars pull in for service during the race. Starting from the pit lane usually means the driver has to begin the race from there because of a penalty or problem.

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Franco Collapinta

"Okay. So I don't know who to pick for a good surprise. So who do you think is going to do really well at the Belgian Grand Prix? ... It's Collapinta. Collapinta is going to have a bad race."

Franco Collapinta is a Formula 1 driver. In this bit, they’re joking that he might have a bad race—possibly involving a crash.

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Pierre Gasly

"That's just happened. Why do you think Max has happened to me and do really well? He's my favorite Formula One driver. Is your favorite Formula One driver? Yeah. Even more than Pierre Gasly?"

Pierre Gasly is another Formula 1 driver. They just bring him up to compare who someone likes more.

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Esteban Gutierrez

"But okay. So Esteban Gutierrez joined the group. I don't know. Wow. Where did he come from?"

Esteban Gutiérrez is a Formula 1 driver. They mention him briefly as a name in their discussion, without really explaining why.

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pole position

"Interesting. Let's now go to pole position. [1460.3s] Pole position. I've gone for Charles Leclerc."

Pole position means the driver starts first at the front of the race. It’s earned by being fastest in qualifying, and it usually helps because you’re not stuck in traffic at the start.

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Charles Leclerc

"Pole position. I've gone for Charles Leclerc. [1472.5s] Yeah, I have. I've gone for Charles Leclerc for pole position. ... [1521.8s] Question mark over Ferrari, how good they're going to be at this track?"

Charles Leclerc is a Formula 1 driver who races for Ferrari. In this segment, they’re predicting he could get pole position, especially if the weather turns wet.

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wet

"If Charles Leclerc gets [1479.9s] pole in the wet in a Ferrari, we're winning the championship. [1484.6s] I don't believe the weather forecast."

“Wet” refers to race conditions on a rain-soaked track, which dramatically changes grip and braking distances. In wet conditions, setup and tire choice matter more, and drivers can be more cautious or aggressive depending on how the car behaves.

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Car

Ferrari

"If Charles Leclerc gets [1479.9s] pole in the wet in a Ferrari, we're winning the championship. ... [1521.8s] Question mark over Ferrari, how good they're going to be at this track?"

Ferrari is one of the main Formula 1 teams. When they say “in a Ferrari,” they mean the race car that Charles Leclerc drives for that team.

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Place

Spa

"Yeah, yeah. I've gone for Charles Leclerc. I was looking back at Spa and qualifying in particular. [1503.1s] He's had some really good results here..."

Spa is a famous Formula 1 race track in Belgium. It’s known for tricky corners and weather changes, so the outcome can be hard to predict.

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straight mode

"Question mark over Ferrari, how good they're going to be at this track? I saw that they're [1525.9s] actually having five straight modes around this circuit, which is quite insane. [1531.9s] You saw the Ferrari, I think?"

“Straight modes” are different settings the team can use to change how the car delivers power on the long straight sections. The goal is to get the best speed without wasting performance too quickly.

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George Russell

"Oh, I love how it's different. Okay, I'm going to lock in George Russell. George Russell pole position. Oh, wow. Okay. Was that your different? Yes. Yeah, yeah. Oh, wow. Okay. Yeah, it was between the two Mercedes drivers."

George Russell is a Formula 1 race driver. Here, the hosts are talking about whether he can qualify on pole and perform well in Belgium, especially if it rains.

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safety car

"But I almost as what phenomenal race from Matt just happened to take the win behind the safety car. Yeah, perfect."

The safety car comes out when something is unsafe on the track. It slows everyone down, and that can completely change the race—especially when the race restarts.

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podium

"Third place for the race. I am locking in Max Verstappen. He's going to get that podium that he deserved at Silverstone."

In Formula 1, the podium is the top-three finish: first, second, and third. When the host predicts a driver will “get that podium,” they mean a top-three race result.

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Lewis Hamilton

"so I've gone for P3. P3, I have gone for Lewis Hamilton. Ferrari on the podium again."

Lewis Hamilton is one of Formula 1’s most famous and successful drivers. The host thinks Hamilton will finish third in this prediction.

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Kimmy Antonelli

"I'm going for Kimmy Antonelli. He's going to get that win similar to Max Verstam."

Kimmy Antonelli is a Formula 1 driver. The hosts are talking about whether he’ll win the Belgian Grand Prix and whether his luck might hold up.

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Max Verstam

"He's going to get that win similar to Max Verstam. He's going to get the win that he definitely did deserve at the British Grand Prix."

Max Verstappen is a very successful Formula 1 driver. The hosts are using him as an example of someone who can win when things go right.

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hot lap

"So therefore, Kimmy Antonelli first place. And yes, we had a hot lap with him. Go and check out on social if you haven't seen it already."

A hot lap is one fast lap where the driver pushes as hard as possible. They’re saying they got to see Antonelli’s speed in that kind of run.

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DNF

"Wait, so you think DNF? Potentially, or just... If it's a DNF and George wins, it's level on points in the judges."

DNF means the driver didn’t finish the race. The hosts are wondering if Antonelli might have to retire, which would change who wins and how the points shake out.

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Topic

Belgian GP predictions

"Certainly not luck. They're both doing an amazing job. I mean, it hasn't happened since Miami... Now, this one is bizarre that I can even lock this one in and call it because the patron prediction has to be crazy."

They’re talking about who they think will do well in the Belgian Grand Prix. It’s basically a predictions segment about race results and points.

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Brand

Alpine

"[2572.2s] She's learning. Oh, my God. We're in so much trouble. [2576.4s] No, Alpine. I was convinced that it's really Colopinto,"

Alpine is a Formula 1 racing team. When they say “Alpine,” they’re talking about that team and who drives for it.

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Mercedes

"[2634.0s] Because you know... Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm like, good night. Just remember, [2637.7s] Mercedes have the best car this season. We're going to be recording a video tomorrow, Grace."

Mercedes is one of the big Formula 1 teams. They’re saying Mercedes is currently the strongest team/car this season.

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Place

Silverstone

"[2660.8s] There you go. If you're wondering what the swimming pool references are, we were at the [2663.8s] pop-up hotel at Silverstone, and they had a mini swimming pool by the side of the racetrack."

Silverstone is a major race track in the UK where Formula 1 events happen. They’re talking about a funny moment they had there.

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Alonso

"[2677.4s] by the way. So she's a fake Max fan. Yeah, she is. I just want to out her for that. [2680.3s] Oh, she saw the like a race, and then was like, right, I've seen the mate of the day. [2683.9s] I've seen Alonso win. I'm out. Right, there we go."

Alonso is a well-known Formula 1 driver. They’re joking that the child has heard about him winning and now repeats it.

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Topic

Belgian Grand Prix

"to the predictions for the Belgian Grand Prix. We'll, of course, be live as always for Saturday and Sunday across YouTube and Twitch."

The Belgian Grand Prix is a major Formula 1 race in Belgium, usually at the Spa track. It’s a big test for the teams and drivers.

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regulations

"Final thoughts. The big test. Can Spa deliver as a banger with these regulations? This is the big test."

“Regulations” are the rules that Formula 1 teams must follow for that season. They affect how the cars are designed and how races are run.

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