S4E20 - Dealership Profitability & Disruption: What’s Ahead in 2026

Heather, it's not quite the wind studio, but that doesn't mean it's any less impactful

at conversation.

No, and it's really because of guests like Steve Greenfield.

If you don't know, it would be hard to know anyone in the automotive industry that is not

aware of Steve Greenfield.

But in case you're not, he is the author of two books, The Future of Mobility, The Future

of Automotive Retail.

He is the founder of Automotive Ventures.

Anything related to technology, innovation, consumer behavior, OEMs, investments, he is

tracking it all.

We had the opportunity to talk to him today, and he gave us some really sound advice when

you think about all of the factors that are impacting in dynamic business that we're in

with Automotive.

What do you agree?

Oh, most definitely.

Affordability, really looking at the economic outlook going out two, three, five years, what

opportunities there are for dealers in the different departments.

It was a very exciting discussion.

And he's got a thing for cats.

He has a little bit of a thing for cats, and we learned a little bit more about that.

That's right.

We're going to find out about that in a lot more.

We hope you enjoy it.

Let's take a walk around with Steve Greenfield.

Welcome to the Walk Around podcast, and Steve Greenfield is with us.

Steve, there's so many terms we could say about your knowledge, prognosticator, soothsayer.

What do you consider yourself primarily in the auto business?

Well, I'm an investor.

My day job is investing.

I mean, thanks for having me on today.

I do get to have a lot of conversations like this one about the future and what things

are going to hold.

But I think part of our investment thesis is be able to look around corners, anticipate

what things are going to happen and what things aren't going to happen, and then invest appropriately.

No, I'm very appreciative of being here today and looking forward to with you looking into

the future and having a little bit of a peek into the future.

Yeah, that's primarily what we're interested in, and Heather and I were really excited when

you agreed to join us.

We thought we would jump right in on an issue that all of us are talking about in the industry,

and that is affordability, for sure.

Of course, we are seeing that tighten.

We are seeing monthly payments near the 1,000 monthly amount, which is just mind-boggling.

I've been in what consumers financing their vehicles for 84 months has become in the new

year.

Yeah, and fewer and fewer cars are priced, new cars are priced under $30,000.

So what's your outlook on affordability?

Where do you see this heading in the next year, year plus, and what's your advice to

dealers about it?

Yeah, and great question.

The one thing I would add to that data point is that the default rate on deep subprime

continues to ratchet up every month.

So while prime customers, the default rate doesn't seem troublesome, we are seeing this

increase in default rate for the deep subprime customers, and some are anticipating the repo

rate as a result is going to go up, and we're going to see more of these repos coming back

to the auctions.

But there's a bit of a self-inflicted wound.

I think that during COVID, when we had supply chain glitches, the automaker sort of said,

well, if we're going to have to be limited with the cars we're going to build, we're

going to have microchips where we can get more profit margin, and we've seen this pretty

dramatic step up in an average price.

The Cox Automotive reports that just last month, the average vehicle transaction price

for new vehicles was over $50,000 for the first time.

And we've left this big gap to your point, like a sub-30,000 car, which a few years ago

was kind of a sweet spot, and now even on the used car side, it's hard to find cars

of high quality and low mileage with $30,000 or less sticker price.

So I think it is challenging.

The other thing that isn't talked about a lot is that we continue to see cars coming

back three, four years after COVID that were sold far above MSRP, where consumers are

shocked at just how dramatically underwater they are.

I have all this negative equity that when they buy a new car, they've got to roll into

the new car.

So it is a challenging environment right now, especially for deep subprime.

I think we do have this kind of what they're saying, like a K-shaped economy right now.

Those with prime credit, no worries, things are good, spending is great, credit's good,

credit's flowing, et cetera.

But I think for those folks that are more subprime, it is a challenging environment right now,

with prices being higher, default rates being up, et cetera.

So I think for those dealers out there, it's really a challenge.

You've got to sort of stratify and segment your customers differently.

I think those prime customers, probably you're selling to them in the same way, with the subprime

customers, it's just a dramatic different experience for them.

And you're going to, I think, increasingly have a hard time getting some of these people

financed.

Yeah.

Steve, one of the things you mentioned as we're talking about affordability and the

prime consumers are continuing to be able to take on these payments is you mentioned

the chip shortage.

And lately we've been hearing in the news coming up that we may see some similar supply chain

opportunities that we saw in 2022 coming out of COVID.

Can you talk a little bit about what you know and what you've heard about the pending challenges

we may see in the microchips?

Yeah.

It just shows you the fragility and the interconnectedness of the supply chain.

When you have a chip maker over in Holland, they're potentially going through bankruptcy

and their absence could really, really disrupt new car vehicle supply here in the US.

It's kind of like chaos theory when you've got a butterfly's wing and halfway across

the world there's a hurricane as a result of that or something.

But I think that the beauty of the American economy is we've dialed in the supply chain

so tightly that everything, you know, Amazon or whatever is just in time delivery and we've

got local stock of these things, et cetera.

But as we saw during COVID with microchips, it doesn't take much of a disruption in the

supply chain.

So I think that this is just one example.

I don't suspect this is going to amount to too much in the short term, but just another

example that we've dialed in this supply chain so tightly that any disruption whatsoever

is a challenge.

And the implications are that, you know, the automakers for a multitude of reasons are

under pressure.

They're under pressure for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is just the supply chain.

And they're going to share the pain with tier one suppliers, those suppliers that supply

them the products they assemble together into vehicles.

And the automakers operated a pretty thin margin, but the tier one suppliers really

operate a thin margin.

So, you know, any disruptions of these tier one suppliers, as we've heard about in Europe,

could threaten bankruptcy.

And again, just shows you the fragility of the supply chain overall and hard to anticipate

how this will play out.

But I suspect that there will continue to be disruptions because we've dialed this thing

in so tightly.

How do you feel or what would be your advice, Steve, to dealers regarding affordability?

Yeah.

So I like to tell dealers like, you know, worry about the things that you can control,

the things that are beyond your control, you can't really help, right?

So your automakers, for example, are going to build certain cars.

Steve, I need to take that advice in my own life situation.

We all share it.

Yeah, yeah.

We're continuing.

We often wake up at 3 a.m. about the things we can't control anyway, but I think that

the dealers can't control.

They can't control what cars their manufacturers are building and whether or not consumers

are going to like those cars.

They can't control much about what front end gross profit they're going to be able to generate

off the sale of new cars.

What they can control, they can control which used cars they stock on their lot.

They can control how much they focus on F&I in terms of attach rate and back end profitability

on the car deal.

They can control how well they're absorbing market share for fixed operations, parts and

service in the local market.

They can control how well they're nurturing their customer database to make sure that

all three of us buy our next car from the dealer and they drive loyalty and make sure

we come back and service our car at the dealership.

So I do think that dealers just increasingly need to focus on the areas of the dealership

that they can control and specifically those areas like F&I and fixed operations that

drive the most profit and then spend an undue amount of attention to those things that

will drive profit and create the economic health, the buffer for their business, especially

in these times of uncertainty.

Don't worry too much about the things you just can't control.

It's getting me thinking about the term I've heard many times in the financial world.

Control the controllables and your business will thrive.

So one of the other pieces that you've mentioned early in our conversations and it's a slight

pivot in what we're talking about is disruption.

And as we know, we have seen, we are seeing disruption in the DMS space and the retail

technology space, the tech yons of the world, the pine wood, et cetera.

And so, you know, we'd really like to know what your thoughts are on the DMS space, Steve,

and the new entrance that I mentioned, tech yon and pie wood and what should dealers be

looking for before making a change, whether it's a DMS technology or any type of investment

that could impact the customer experience.

What should dealers be thinking about?

Well, yeah, taking a step back, I would say, you know, competition is one of the things

the attributes that makes America great, right?

Competition makes the incumbents smarter, forces them to be faster, more agile, et cetera.

And then clearly, competition is good for the end customer, in this case, the dealer

who has more choice.

So I do think, well, it would be nice to have, you know, a rigid fixed market share amongst

a couple of players.

Competition makes the whole pool much smarter, more aggressive, and everyone benefits.

You know, I think the dealers have more choice now, right?

So they do have the upstarts, the tech yons and the pine woods and others who are smaller,

but growing quite fast, are on a probably a more agile software base, don't have the

legacy technology debt that some of the big players have, therefore they can innovate

faster, et cetera.

But the flip side is, you know, at a dealership, there's this notion of change management,

especially with a DMS.

You know, I may have employees that have used that same DMS for 20 or 30 years and trying

to get them to change is very, very painful at times, right?

So that creates more stickiness with the legacy players overall, even if there are features

that some of these new players have that these legacy players don't have.

So I think any dealer that is wanting to evaluate a technology shift from what I understand

from dealers, a lot of it is the change management.

It might be, hey, we're really enamored with this new interface or our employees look at

it and say, wow, this would unlock our ability to do a lot of things that we're not doing

now for the benefit of the consumer.

But then you run headlong into, but now we've got 300 employees and they all need to be

trained and they're all used to doing things.

But we're all this way, right?

We're all sort of cognitively lazy.

We get into our ruts.

We like doing things the way that we do them.

Change often is perceived to be a threat.

So there is a bit of, you know, they say it's technology, people and process.

And I think in many cases, it's not just a new technology.

You really need to think about how many of our processes we need to change.

And as an impact of the impact on our employees, because at the end of the day, our

employees are the ones that are really doing the work to generate revenue and

profitability and provide that customer experience.

And you want to be able to bring the employees along with you on the journey as

you make these kind of dramatic technology decisions.

I'm curious, Steve, on the topic of technology decisions, you know,

you mentioned earlier, you're an investor.

That's your business.

That's where you're spending a lot of your time.

So when you think about automotive technology, where is that trend going?

What are you seeing in the market?

What are what are dealers or what should dealers be curious about based on what

you're seeing and where technology is evolving?

Yeah, it's a great question.

And you can't look at any news outlet today without seeing something about AI.

You know, across all industries, something like 63 percent of all venture capital

money is being invested into AI companies now.

So it's definitely hot.

Some some say it's too hot and too frothy when you see these five hundred

billion dollar valuations for startups like Open AI that didn't exist two or

three years ago, but that's another topic free for another day.

But I do think that now taking that and applying it to dealers overall,

you know, dealers, I think, are already starting to get a little numb to the

number of vendors that are pitching AI enabled AI powered solutions overall.

And I think that that's only going to get worse.

You know, we're going to be walking into NADA here in a month or two in Las Vegas.

And, you know, every booth is going to have some mention of AI,

some new feature that's powered by AI, et cetera.

But I think on the flip side of it,

your dealer should be very excited, very excited.

And they're there by my calculations,

a dealer's cost structure is about 60 percent human capital.

So about 60 percent of their cost structure every month is human capital.

And even, you know, light AI that helps all of your employees become more productive

should naturally move all your metrics in the right direction.

For example, you know, the average dealer

salesperson sells 10 cars per month.

I've got to imagine that with AI we're going to unlock productivity gains.

For example, in selling cars where that salesperson that uses

10 cars a month may start selling 12 or may start selling 15.

I'm curious, how do you see AI impacting that ability to make a car

sales process more efficient today?

And it just to tag on that, all three of us know we've been at an average

of eight to 10 cars since probably the early 1980s.

And I keep sharing this about AI impacting car sales.

And here we are 2025.

We're still selling an average of eight to 10 cars.

So if I'm a dealer and I'm listening or a salesperson or sales manager listening

to this, how do you identify out of these tools and technologies that we see?

What's going to move that needle to cars per month on average for salespeople?

Yeah, I agree.

And I'm a bit of a donor too.

So I hear you, Apple, you're

like, what have you had a magic?

I know I was hoping that deals was like, OK, make sure you're tuning in right now.

This is going to be our headlight.

I do give these things a lot of thought.

So listen, this is how I would characterize it.

If you and I went out and we found the most productive, the 10 most productive

salespeople in the country, I got to assume that they sell consistently 30,

40, maybe 50 cars a month or something and look at what they do.

I've got to imagine it's something like this.

I've never sold a car, but I'm assuming it's something like this.

They really focus on being very attentive to their customers.

So when they look at a customer, they're like, I'm not going to sell this person

one car, but over their lifetime, I'm going to sell them five cars.

I'm going to sell their spouses cars or kids cars or neighbors cars, etc.

And they build up that network.

Well, how do they do that?

They probably are very attentive to the customer.

So every year I get a reminder like, hey, congratulations, Steve, on your birthday.

I hope you still are enjoying that Toyota.

You know, on kids' birthdays, they probably get a handwritten card that goes

out to those folks, etc.

And they're probably very attentive to their customers.

So, you know, their customers, I'm never going to buy from anyone else.

I love dealing with Steve.

He's such a great salesperson.

He knows me, he knows my kids' names.

He knows their birthdays.

He knows that their favorite sports are and he sends me things, etc.

All of that is scalable and AI should be able to help with that.

Like, who, who will he better to track birthdays and, you know, anniversaries

and kids' names, etc. than AI?

Imagine this, imagine, you know, I walk into a dealership and up on the salesperson's

screen goes, hey, we just use facial recognition to recognize Steve just walked in.

As a reminder, his spouse's name is X. His kids' names are Y.

And by the way, he's got two golden retrievers right now.

And he loves those things to death.

And their names are Mary and Jane or something.

And all of that should be able to be done real time with AI.

So you could have this, this very

powerful, successful salesperson that has a photographic memory or you could have

AI that augments, you know, the average salesperson and brings them up.

It's kind of like the rising tide, rising all boats.

Like the average salesperson now should be as effective as the most effective

salesperson on earth, just because AI is sitting

persistently on every single device they're using and just reminding them,

like nurturing them, giving them an easy button they can press to make them much

more effective, even for brand new employees.

So I do think that AI has this promise.

We'll see if it is able to fulfill that promise.

But we may see this huge breakthrough with productivity, no matter which role it is

at the dealership, we could describe back office automations and accounting

automations and fixed operations automations.

And how do we drive more throughput per technician when they're under a car

using augmented glasses to help diagnose problems?

I mean, I do think we're on the cusp of maybe some big breakthroughs that are

really going to drive productivity.

And by the way, you know, when a dealer's employees are more productive,

they're able to do more work and that means more revenue per head.

And that means more profit overall at the end of the year.

So I think dealers should be embracing this new frontier.

And we'll see how this all plays out.

Steve, I knew you were making up that bio about yourself because you don't have

golden retrievers. I heard you're a cat person at heart.

I am. I'm embarrassed to tell you how many cat or cat house we share.

Best bet? Is it six? Is it eight?

Over or under six?

I'm going to take the all your.

It's the it's over six.

How many are we talking, Steve?

It is over six. I can't tell you, Brian.

We don't want to reveal it. OK.

All right, OK.

It's dramatically over six.

You're madly over.

Why are you talking 12?

Are we in double digits or, you know, cats kind of cats can kind of,

you know, they live on their own.

They have their own like, do you really know how many you have at a certain time?

Are they in and out of the house?

Yes, it's a part time job.

No, I've taken since covid to rescuing cats and

at some point I'll scale it into an actual nonprofit.

But for the time being, yes, I'm getting a lot of experience rescuing cats from the street.

That's awesome. Oh, my gosh.

Well, you know, on the topic a little bit of AI in the future,

we wanted to ask your future outlook.

You know, you have published a book on the future of automotive and looking out

into 2050, which is always fun and interesting to hear

expert takes on what does the automotive industry look like?

From where you are today, based on when you made those predictions about 2050,

are any of them feeling more likely, less likely?

Have you have you gone back and thought about

some of those things that you're predicting for 2050 and what have has there been a change or a affirmation?

A little bit of all of the above in that book, I'm almost embarrassed.

That was, you know, three years ago, four years ago.

You know, I was pretty declarative that, you know, a level five autonomy was never going to happen.

And it's amazing.

I don't know if both of you have been in a waymo yet.

I haven't, but we've had some colleagues that just came back from the Salesforce conference

and they are incredibly amazed at the progression with Waymo because

in the early stages of Waymo, you know, it wasn't as smooth.

There was there was friction in the in the driving experience.

But now their comparison is it's made incredible strides.

Yeah, I mean, if you get a chance, whether you're in Arizona, San Francisco,

it's popping up in a number of cities hits here in Atlanta, Austin, Texas, Austin, Texas.

That's right. Yeah. So I mean, you'll start to see a wave of new cities being announced.

I think every quarter, which is great.

You know, this isn't going to replace for for mainstream America.

This isn't going to replace, you know, having a car in the driveway.

But in dense urban areas, you could foresee, you know, this being a substitute as

the cost per mile comes down dramatically, this being a substitute for maybe owning a

second car, right? Or definitely for business travel.

You look at, you know, Uber drivers today like, well, these Uber drivers may not need

to exist in five or 10 years and they may need to get repurposed and reskilled

as some other labor force.

But so the autonomous thing is interesting.

I'm not threatened that it's going to replace car ownership and like everyone's

going to go to autonomous ride, hailing and no one's going to own a car.

But I do think if you're in a dense urban area and the cost per mile does come

down dramatically, you might say, look, I don't need to own the extra car or, you

know, I'm going to substitute rather than driving downtown and worrying about

finding a parking spot and paying $20 an hour.

I'm just going to hop in one of these autonomous vehicles powered by Waymo or

whomever and it may start to substitute a significant proportion of the miles

driven per year. And I think that's good.

I think I think this is a good thing.

We should welcome it.

The opportunity here is that someone's going to need to service these cars.

So every day they're going to need to get charged.

They're going to need to get clean because people are going to leave french fries

in the back seat.

I'm on the other face.

Or are you okay?

And I think dealers are kind of ideally positioned in their local markets to

potentially have a new business line where, you know, now I'm servicing.

You know, I'm doing fluid changes.

I'm servicing, changing tires, et cetera.

But also I'm detrashing these cars.

I'm cleaning the exterior of the cars and charging them up overnight.

That could be a nice profitable new revenue stream.

For example, one of the benefits of as we move more towards autonomy.

So autonomy is one that I was a doubter, but now I'm a believer having sat in some

of these Waymo's. It's like it's really unbelievable technology.

And it's like it's a little space age to get your head around it overall.

But it's amazing.

I think that, you know, dealers have a very resilient business model.

I articulated that in the book and I think that's shown through COVID now.

It's shown through after COVID that they're going to have to move the shells

around on the playing board a little bit.

Like we said, don't worry too much about whether you're under pressure in certain

departments because they have plenty of levers to pull, very, very profitable

levers to pull across different departments in the dealership.

So I suspect that the franchise dealer model will continue to be profitable

and it'll be durable.

And we saw so many automakers during COVID that wanted to potentially sell

directly, looking at more of a Tesla like model and almost all of them have backed

off now. Yes, we still hear Scout, which is owned by Volkswagen, launching their

new vehicle and their intent is to sell directly.

We have this Afila car, which is the joint venture between Honda and Sony.

They intend to sell directly as well.

But I think even those brands will eventually realize that going through

the franchise dealer model is just the most effective way to sell and service

cars in their local communities.

So I think the dealers can rest assured that their business model is

defensible, very profitable, not as profitable maybe as it was in the peak

of COVID in 2022, but continues to be a very profitable, attractive business model

that's defensible and durable for the long term.

So I don't think that there's any scenario that when we look at 10 or 20

years that dealers don't exist.

And as you outlined in your book, Future of Automotive Retail,

have the reliance on the fixed operations area of your dealership.

And I think that's why it's so critically important to take care of that

customer experience, because they are going to rely more and more on that dealer

to continue to service and take care of their vehicle.

It was a great book and I enjoyed reading it.

You want to move on to the breast beds?

Let's do it.

So, Steve, Rick, we're going to close out our segment with you with a little

game that we like to play called Bed-It or Forgeza.

And typically, Steve, and hopefully at NADA in 2026, we can catch you.

We're in our serious XM booth at the WAN Hotel.

We will be back doing live interviews and be able to indulge Mark's gambling habit.

But for now, to mention it, sorry.

But for now, we'll do Bed-It or Forgeza.

Here we go. Bed-It or Forgeza.

So you mentioned profitability, which was actually

one of the things that we had on our list here.

So here it is.

By 2030, average dealership net profit margins will drop below pre-pandemic levels.

Bed-It or Forgeza.

Forgeza.

Forget it. Tell us why.

I mean, Glenn Mercer, who if you haven't talked to you is just a great industry

expert, you know, has this chart going back 50 years to showing the average

dealer profit margin and how stable it's been.

And I do think there are some unique opportunities to unlock additional

profitability, especially in fixed operations.

For example, as the cars get more sensors on them or able to diagnose when a

critical component needs to be serviced or is going to fail.

And on the dash, the car recommends going to a service bay to get that work done.

They're not going to recommend independent repair shops.

They're going to recommend the franchise dealer, probably where you bought it from.

And I think as a result, you're going to drive tremendous loyalty back to dealerships.

So they're going to actually have increased loyalty of their local vehicles

and operations in the future, driving more revenue and profitably through fixed

stops as an example.

So I think that the the automakers will figure out ways to ensure the dealer

channel continues to make really good, healthy profits.

Dealers will be very intuitive and creative in terms of working with their vendors.

And I actually think that the dealer, the dealer profit margins will be

sustainably healthy into the future.

Well, with those sustainably healthy profit margins, that it are forget it.

Dealership valuations will continue to rise over the next 12 to 18 months,

even with margin pressure, that it are forget it.

I'm going to bet I'm going to forget that one.

I think that I don't think there's anything

on this little cliff we're going to drive off of, but I only see a lot of

indications that multiples are going to increase.

So you think we're going to be in a period of stability or then not

one to two years when we think about valuations.

Exactly. Right.

I think it's going to be primarily driven on the attractiveness of the vehicles

of their OEMs are producing.

For example, Nissan's gotten beat up recently because the products are producing

just like there isn't a lot of consumer demand.

If they turn around and start creating hot product, you're going to see a bump up

in valuations for that brand.

So I think some of the individual brands will move around.

But overall, I wouldn't suspect we're going to see any spikes or any dramatic declines.

So, Steve, on this next one, you touched on a little bit in your

your thoughts on 2050, but

direct to consumer brand launches will fail to meaningfully displace the franchise

dealer model at it or forget it.

I'm all in on that one.

I mean, that's exactly I couldn't have articulated that better.

Listen, the scout thing isn't going to work.

This feel of thing isn't going to work.

So I know that the dealers are pushing back pretty hard against those initiatives

from their automakers.

But look, I mean, other than Tesla, who's got significant volume?

Loosen hardly sells any cars, Rivian's been challenged, etc.

It's awfully hard to build a new consumer brand and build consumer awareness

for a brand new vehicle.

They're much better off using the dealer network.

Dealers can sell cars if they can do anything they can sell cars.

So I think that you'll let them try.

But I think that these consumer direct channels are almost inevitably going to fail.

Yeah, Steve, I'm curious your thoughts on VYD.

If that makes it to the American market and you're a dealer, are you lining up

for that franchise or are you not 100 percent?

I would want to be the first VYD dealer in my local market.

If you haven't been in these cars, they're amazing.

The price point is quite reasonable.

The quality, the fit and finish, the quality is amazing.

You talk to drivers, like as you travel around the world, you talk to people who

have these cars, they're like, these are great, great cars, great quality.

The value for the price that you're paying is astronomical.

And, you know, if VYD, if President Trump, for example,

negotiates something with China where some of these brands come in,

I do think dealers should be very open-minded about being first in line

because it's a bad day if your competitor across the street gets the VYD franchise

and you don't.

I'm thinking about when dealers were approached with Hyundai and Kia,

the ones that got in early.

Look at them today.

That's right.

Unlike those brands, I mean, the first iteration of Hyundai's and Kia's in America

were horrible, the quality was horrible.

They were not ready for, you know, the American market,

whereas the VYDs are like really, really good quality cars.

So I agree with you.

I think that you won't have that 10 years while they figure out the quality issues.

You will have a hot product priced right right out of the gate.

Steve, one last bet it or forget it.

Dealers in the US will be selling VYD within five years.

Bet it or forget it?

Bet it.

All right, you heard it here.

Steve, we can't thank you enough.

Where can people find you?

Heather, we mentioned the book, The Future of Automotive Retail.

I'm assuming you can get that on Amazon or anywhere you buy books.

And your latest book, Future of Mobility,

which came out this year as well.

AutomotiveVentures.com.

Is that right?

LinkedIn, you are an amazing industry insider and we can't thank you enough

for sharing your thoughts with us today.

This was a real pleasure and I appreciate both of you for everything you do

for the industry and for having me on today.

So anytime you like me, I've come back.

Just just just give me.

We sure will.

Thank you.

Thank you, Steve.

Thank you.

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S4E20 - Dealership Profitability & Disruption: What’s Ahead in 2026

About this episode

MSRP

negative equity

autonomous vehicles

Waymo

autonomy

Volkswagen

Afila

franchise dealer model

fixed operations

sensors

service bay

Kia

Hyundai

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