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01:07
Hi everyone, and welcome to the September 26th,
01:10
2025 episode of the Automotive News Canada podcast.
01:14
I'm your host, Greg Lason,
01:15
the digital and mobile editor at Automotive News Canada,
01:19
coming to you from just outside Windsor, Ontario,
01:21
the automotive capital of Canada.
01:25
I speak with Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association
01:28
CEO, Brian Kingston.
01:30
He represents the interests of the Detroit three in Canada
01:33
and he's here to talk electric vehicle sales mandates,
01:36
EV incentives, trade and tariffs and more.
01:40
But first, a look at some of the top Canadian
01:42
automotive stories of the week.
01:44
The United States in July collected
01:46
about 380 million US dollars in auto tariffs.
01:49
That's a steep increase from the previous three months.
01:52
US customs had been allowing automakers
01:54
to claim exemptions for most vehicles
01:56
and parts under the United States,
01:58
Mexico, Canada agreement.
02:00
Anderson Economic Group says that practice
02:02
likely ended in July, says Anderson CEO Patrick Anderson.
02:07
We can expect that these costs will become embedded
02:09
into the prices consumers are paying
02:11
in the very near future.
02:13
In retail news, Canada's dealership community
02:16
lost another mogul this week.
02:18
Vincenzo Vip Palladino died September 23rd
02:24
He was a fixture of the Ontario auto retail industry
02:27
for more than 60 years.
02:29
Palladino in 1960 opened the first of three
02:32
used vehicle dealerships in Sudbury
02:34
that would become known collectively as Vips Car Land.
02:38
Today, the group has seven franchise stores
02:41
in three Ontario cities.
02:43
And finally, a Vancouver Porsche dealership
02:46
has filed suit after 13 vehicles were damaged
02:51
Porsche of Vancouver and its owner
02:53
Delari Group of Companies, a legend BC Supreme Court
02:57
that the vehicles were damaged when a tent
02:59
and its concrete anchor blocks were swept up by the wind
03:02
and landed on the vehicles.
03:04
The suit alleges the tent was being used
03:06
by a nearby film crew.
03:08
The plaintiffs claim Kelly's film services,
03:12
bright light pictures and lighthouse pictures
03:14
were negligent in securing the tent
03:17
and failing to check the weather forecast.
03:19
None of the claims has been proven in court.
03:22
And that's a look at some of the top Canadian
03:24
automotive stories of the week
03:26
coming up by Speak with Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers
03:29
Association CEO Brian Kingston.
03:35
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04:02
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04:05
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04:28
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04:30
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04:32
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04:36
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04:39
Welcome back to the Automotive News Canada Podcast.
04:41
I'm your host, Greg Lason,
04:43
and I'm now joined by Canadian Vehicle
04:46
Manufacturers Association CEO, Brian Kingston.
04:50
Brian, thanks for joining me on the podcast this week.
04:53
Hey, thanks for having me on. I appreciate it.
04:55
Yeah, it's great to have you.
04:56
There is a ton to talk about
04:58
in the Canadian automotive industry.
05:00
You know, let's just start with electric vehicles.
05:03
The federal government has paused
05:05
its zero emission vehicle sales mandate,
05:08
and it's undertaking a 60-day review of that legislation.
05:12
What are your thoughts on this early?
05:14
Well, first of all, this was the right move.
05:17
We've been asking for the government to repeal the mandate
05:20
because of the damage it's doing to the automotive industry.
05:23
They have recognized that this is not working.
05:27
The pause is encouraging, but it's not enough.
05:30
This mandate has to go.
05:32
There is no other path forward.
05:34
We just saw the sales data for July
05:37
that is six months in a row of declines of EV sales,
05:41
sitting at 7.7 percent,
05:43
getting to 20 percent in 2026 and 60 percent in 2030
05:47
is not going to happen.
05:49
The demand is not there,
05:51
and as a result, manufacturers are having to restrict
05:53
gas-powered vehicle sales and purchase credits
05:55
from companies like Tesla.
05:57
It makes no sense. It has to go,
05:59
so it's a good first step,
06:00
but there's a lot more work to do here.
06:02
You mentioned damage.
06:03
Can you explain that in layman's terms?
06:05
How is this hurting the automotive industry
06:07
if there is an electric vehicle sales mandate in Canada?
06:10
The way it works is that companies have to
06:13
achieve this arbitrary sales ratio
06:16
that the government has established.
06:20
What will happen is,
06:22
if sales don't reach the level
06:24
that has been established
06:27
for a particular model of years,
06:29
20 percent in 2026 and then on to 60 in 2030,
06:32
they have to comply
06:34
through either restricting gas sales in Canada.
06:38
That means that if a dealer wants a certain amount
06:41
of gas-powered vehicles
06:42
because that's what their local market demands,
06:44
they can't receive them
06:46
because the company has to meet that sales ratio.
06:49
The other compliance avenue is to buy credits
06:52
from an automaker that has surplus credits.
06:55
The main one, of course, is Tesla.
06:57
We're estimating that in excess of $3 billion
07:01
will be spent on credits from Tesla
07:04
to comply with this regulation.
07:06
Completely illogical,
07:08
we have an automotive manufacturing industry
07:11
here in Canada employing Canadians
07:13
and this policy is requiring these companies
07:15
to spend money on a company
07:17
that has very little footprint
07:19
in the Canadian economy.
07:20
That's what the mandate does.
07:21
It's very damaging.
07:23
If the objective is reducing emissions,
07:26
we have existing regulations in place to do that.
07:29
Let's focus on the barriers to adoption.
07:32
Let's not mandate the technology.
07:34
We know what you and the automakers
07:36
that you represent want to see happen.
07:38
What do you think actually happens?
07:41
Do we still see a mandate of some sort
07:44
with lower percentages
07:46
and longer-term goals
07:48
rather than 100% by 2035?
07:51
Do we see 80% by 2050?
07:54
Do you have a sense of where this is going?
07:57
One way or another this mandate will be repealed.
08:00
If it doesn't happen in the next 60 days,
08:03
it will happen at a later date.
08:05
It's a policy that doesn't work
08:07
and it is extremely duplicative.
08:09
We have existing regulations.
08:11
I don't see a world in which this remains
08:13
in place over the long term.
08:15
The question is the timeline.
08:17
I think the government recognizes
08:19
the industry is under a great deal of pressure.
08:21
We have US tariffs.
08:22
We have the whole situation with China.
08:24
You cannot put self-inflicted damage
08:27
into this industry at this time.
08:29
I think we'll get to the right place.
08:31
Hopefully, it's at the end of the 60-day period.
08:34
If not, I will be repealed at some point.
08:37
There's another piece to the electric vehicle market
08:41
in Canada when it comes to the government.
08:43
That is the incentives
08:45
for zero-emissions vehicle rebate program
08:47
that offered up to $5,000
08:49
on the purchase of qualifying electric vehicles.
08:52
What's happening to that program?
08:54
It's been paused since the beginning of the year.
08:57
The federal government has said
08:59
it will come back in some way, shape, or form.
09:01
What is your sense there?
09:03
Does this work hand-in-hand with the sales mandate
09:06
or is this something separate?
09:08
What do you expect to see from that program moving forward?
09:11
It's still uncertain.
09:13
Part of the reason we've seen this disruption
09:16
in the EV market is because
09:18
we had the provincial governments,
09:20
BC, and Quebec withdraw their incentives.
09:22
Then, of course, the federal government
09:24
got rid of the ISEP program
09:26
virtually overnight.
09:27
Then, to make matters worse,
09:29
we had ministers continuing to say
09:31
that the program is going to come back.
09:33
If you're a Canadian
09:35
considering buying an EV
09:37
and you're hearing those messages,
09:39
you're seeing those articles and incentives
09:41
going to come back, but you don't know when,
09:43
what happens is those buyers sit on their hands.
09:45
They wait for a federal incentive.
09:49
to potentially come back this year
09:51
just based on what the government said
09:53
during the election campaign.
09:55
We also hear the Prime Minister talking
09:57
about an austerity budget.
09:59
Record deficits being run
10:01
in Ottawa, major spending
10:03
commitments on defense.
10:05
Our estimates are that an ISEP program
10:07
that would put enough
10:09
stimulus into the market
10:11
to get to the mandated government targets
10:13
would cost at least
10:15
$900 million in one
10:19
I'm not convinced they're going to bring it back
10:21
because I don't know if they have
10:23
the capacity to do so,
10:25
so we're going to have to work with what we have,
10:27
the existing market demand,
10:29
and we're really insisting with government
10:31
that let's focus and work together on charging infrastructure.
10:33
We know that's an ongoing challenge.
10:35
Let's get that right.
10:37
We'll get more Canadians and EVs.
10:39
Okay, so there's no sales mandate.
10:41
There might not be incentives.
10:43
What is the future for electrification?
10:47
I know I'm putting you on the spot,
10:49
but it is the question
10:51
outside in that they only exist
10:53
because there are incentives
10:55
and they're only sold because they're forced to sell them.
10:59
the future for automotive?
11:05
Electrification is happening.
11:07
The only question mark is on what timeline.
11:11
forecasts about how quickly
11:13
this transition would take place
11:15
were very, very optimistic,
11:17
and now we're seeing that it's just not
11:19
occurring at the pace that was anticipated.
11:21
The industry has put
11:23
massive investments into this technology,
11:25
and I can tell you,
11:27
someone who's driving an EV for the past two years,
11:29
it is a fantastic technology.
11:31
When people make the move,
11:33
they make the switch,
11:35
they don't go back.
11:37
So this is the future,
11:39
but we've got to get the preconditions right,
11:41
and the main component there
11:43
is making sure that people can charge their vehicle
11:47
I can tell you that from experience.
11:49
If we get that right,
11:51
you will see more and more people in EVs.
11:53
I think the one other factor here
11:55
that's really important to note is that
11:57
the government set this target of 100%
12:01
That doesn't make sense in Canada.
12:03
There are certain use cases
12:05
where this technology simply
12:09
Maybe that will change in time as battery technology
12:11
advances, but if you live
12:13
in a remote community that's
12:15
electricity grid is off a diesel
12:17
generator, if you do a lot of towing
12:19
in a rural community, you name the example,
12:21
maybe an EV isn't going to work for you
12:23
right away. So I think we also have to realize
12:25
that, but we're going to get to very high levels
12:27
of electrification. The question is
12:31
It's safe to say that
12:33
investments in electrification in Canada,
12:35
and you represent the Detroit
12:37
3, and so obviously I'm talking about
12:39
what's happening in Windsor, for example,
12:41
where there is a battery plant
12:43
that is fully constructed and
12:45
making batteries to some extent
12:47
and an assembly plant there that
12:49
does make electric vehicles to some extent.
12:53
would you say? They're not
12:55
going to shut those down or
12:57
turn them or convert them into
12:59
something else. It's just going to take longer
13:01
before we see them at capacity.
13:03
Is that the best assessment? Exactly.
13:05
It's just going to take longer.
13:07
All you have to do is look around
13:09
the world at what's happening in other markets.
13:11
This is the future electrification
13:13
is happening. There are some unique conditions
13:15
in North America that I think make it
13:17
challenging to move as quickly to full
13:19
electric, namely driving distances
13:21
and weather conditions.
13:23
But we're going to get there.
13:25
That is absolutely going to happen.
13:27
In Canada, as you and I have discussed
13:29
on a number of occasions, Canada is
13:31
perfectly placed as the U.S.
13:33
is engaged in this effort
13:35
to decouple its economy
13:37
from China, from the Chinese
13:39
EV supply chain, which
13:41
China has significant control of
13:43
the global battery supply chain.
13:45
Canada is the only jurisdiction
13:47
in the whole western hemisphere that has
13:49
all of these minerals. So the opportunity
13:51
remains significant. Again, the question
13:53
is how quickly can we move
13:55
and actually make that transition happen.
13:57
You talked about North America. You talked
13:59
about the global economy, the global
14:01
marketplace. We have to talk
14:03
about the trade front.
14:05
Canada, the United States and Mexico,
14:07
all started or said they plan to start
14:09
public consultations on the renegotiation
14:11
of the United States-Mexico-Canada
14:13
agreement or USMCA.
14:15
In the layman's terms, what does that
14:17
mean for the deal right now
14:19
and for auto right now? I know
14:21
it's consultations, but kind
14:23
of explain to me what this
14:27
Well, this agreement is all about
14:29
one thing and that is
14:33
certainty in the automotive industry and
14:35
the broader Canadian economy because we
14:37
are so highly integrated
14:39
with the United States.
14:41
There is no other option. Well, I
14:43
appreciate efforts to diversify to other
14:45
markets. If we do not have
14:47
a stable certain relationship
14:49
with the US, the Canadian economy is
14:51
in big trouble. So as we start
14:53
into this review of the agreement
14:55
the objective needs to be
14:57
to address any issues that any
14:59
of the parties have and to reaffirm
15:01
that we're going to keep
15:03
Kuzma agreement in place.
15:05
That gives companies the certainty
15:07
to continue with investments
15:09
in Canada, the US and Mexico because
15:11
we know the rules of the game. The challenge
15:13
we're facing right now is tariff
15:15
policy emanating out of the United States
15:17
is changing rapidly and sometimes
15:19
almost daily. Really hard
15:21
for a business like automotive that has
15:23
a long-term planning horizon.
15:25
So that's what the goal needs to be here. Let's
15:27
get through this, address these issues
15:29
and continue to work together in
15:31
the North American integrated economy.
15:33
So in the short term though
15:35
there are still US and Canadian
15:37
tariffs on autos, it's on critical
15:39
metals such as steel,
15:41
aluminum, things that are needed in the auto
15:43
industry. What happens in the short
15:45
term as these consultations start
15:47
and these tariffs remain in place
15:49
where do we go from here
15:51
quarter by quarter? What do you see playing
15:53
out until there is a new USMCA?
15:55
Well, first of all the costs
15:57
are mounting. So the longer we do not
15:59
get to some sort of agreement
16:01
understanding with the Americans on the
16:03
auto tariffs and steel and aluminum
16:05
you're going to see the costs mounting
16:07
for auto manufacturers. I mean through the
16:09
first two quarters of this year
16:11
auto companies have posted
16:13
12 billion US dollars in
16:15
tariff hits. I mean this is
16:17
unsustainable. It does not
16:19
make for a competitive industry.
16:21
So we have to get to some sort
16:23
of understanding with the US
16:27
this whole review process of the
16:29
Kusma is underway. That would be the objective
16:31
can we secure some sort of agreement
16:33
we've heard the Prime Minister talk about
16:35
these smaller agreements negotiated with
16:37
the US. That should be the objective
16:39
let's get these tariffs removed and then
16:41
we can focus on some of the more
16:43
systematic elements of the trade
16:45
agreement that we have in place. But that should be
16:47
the objective if not the costs
16:49
incurred are just going to continue
16:51
to mount and that ultimately means prices
16:53
are going up and we have a less competitive
16:55
industry. This next
16:57
question could have fell on EVs it could
16:59
have fell in tariffs it's geopolitical
17:01
it's divided the country
17:07
auto industry believes that
17:09
removing tariffs on Chinese
17:11
made EVs and it's a hundred
17:13
percent tariff in fact I think it's a hundred
17:15
six point five percent when everything is
17:17
calculated. Why removing
17:19
that tariff is a bad
17:21
idea and what it could potentially
17:23
do to the North American auto industry.
17:25
Well there's two reasons
17:29
China is not playing fair
17:31
we can compete with any
17:33
other manufacturer any other jurisdiction
17:35
if the playing field
17:37
is level. But if you look
17:39
at what China has done through their
17:41
industrial policy state directed
17:43
investments and subsidies into their
17:45
automotive industry have exceeded
17:47
two hundred thirty billion US dollars
17:49
from two thousand nine to twenty twenty
17:51
three that's probably a low ball
17:53
the estimates are likely
17:55
even higher when you look at the support
17:57
that has gone into the sector and now
17:59
what we're seeing is massive over
18:01
capacity in the Chinese market
18:03
and then these vehicles are dumped into
18:05
other markets around the world they flood
18:07
the market they take market share and
18:09
ultimately displace the domestic industry
18:11
so just to give you an example of what
18:13
happened in Mexico this year
18:15
one of every three new cars sold
18:17
in Mexico will be built in China
18:19
that's up for just four percent market
18:21
share in twenty twenty if you don't
18:23
get on top of this early
18:25
and keep those vehicles out they will
18:27
undermine your domestic industry
18:29
and of course China has
18:31
very weak labor standards
18:33
very weak environment
18:35
regulations and as a result
18:37
they can produce these vehicles at price
18:39
points that are completely below
18:41
anything you would see in North America
18:43
so that's reason one number two
18:45
we're trying to get a deal done with the Americans
18:47
the Americans are pivoting away
18:49
from China if we suddenly said
18:51
you know what we're going to drop the tariff
18:53
we're going to work with China have a closer
18:55
relationship I can guarantee
18:57
you what the response will be from the United States
18:59
and it will not be good so for those
19:01
two reasons we have to maintain
19:03
this policy and we have to
19:05
make sure that these vehicles are kept out of the market
19:07
so let me play devil's advocate
19:09
here and say but we don't make EVs
19:11
in Ontario so what's the big deal
19:13
and in a sense we don't we make
19:15
electrified muscle cars if you will
19:17
in Windsor we make commercial
19:19
electric vans in Ingersoll
19:21
Ontario for a bright drop of GM
19:23
a Chevy brand there
19:25
but nowhere else really makes
19:27
electric vehicles so the
19:31
drop the tariffs are saying there is no
19:33
EV industry in Ontario what do you say to that
19:35
couple things first of all we're creating
19:37
an EV industry and if you look at
19:39
what we've invested over the past five years
19:41
we're up 46 billion
19:43
dollars in investment
19:47
in the EV supply chain
19:49
and EV manufacturing but it's early days
19:51
so we have to give the industry
19:53
time to stand up there's no doubt that the
19:55
Chinese are ahead because they've been working
19:59
as part of their made in China
20:01
industrial policy so we cannot
20:03
allow them to come in well the industry is still
20:05
very much in its infancy
20:07
that's the main reason but again
20:09
the US reaction to this
20:11
would be extremely concerning
20:13
and it would make it very difficult
20:15
for us to continue forward
20:17
on securing a deal look at what Mexico just
20:19
announced they put in place a 50%
20:21
tariff on all Chinese
20:23
manufactured vehicles because they know
20:25
that the North American relationship
20:27
is most important last
20:31
is moving closer to accepting European
20:33
safety regulations and safety standards
20:35
on European built cars that's
20:37
been in discussion over the last month
20:39
or so there's been a push to do the same
20:41
in Canada where we at
20:43
in terms of that accepting
20:45
cars that are built in Europe
20:49
sort of needing to hit Canadian
20:51
standards it would open up the market
20:53
to more choice to more vehicles but are we
20:55
close to getting to that and should
20:57
Canada harmonize with the United
20:59
States when it comes to that matter
21:01
yeah so a couple things first of all we've always harmonized
21:03
with the US because that's just the basis
21:05
of the industry and over 90%
21:07
of our production goes into the US
21:09
so it made sense and continues to make sense
21:11
to have harmonized regs with
21:13
the United States now the
21:15
US has secured agreements with Japan
21:19
where they've said that they intend
21:21
to recognize each other's
21:23
vehicle safety standards
21:25
I think we have to watch that play out
21:27
will there be a process for that
21:29
to happen our negotiations
21:31
underway our senses right now
21:33
there isn't a great deal of activity
21:35
there's an intention to do that
21:37
so I think we have to watch what the US does
21:39
and work with our American partners
21:41
as they approach different
21:43
regulatory recognition
21:45
agreements with other jurisdictions
21:47
but at this stage I'm not seeing a huge amount
21:49
of activity on the US side so I think
21:51
we have to keep an eye on that and make sure
21:53
that we're working together in that approach
21:55
Brian always great to have you on the show
21:57
I appreciate it thanks for having me
21:59
I'd like to thank Brian for his time
22:01
if you'd like to be a guest have a suggestion
22:03
or simply want to comment
22:05
email me at glasenatautonews.com
22:07
and remember you can listen to all our
22:09
previous podcasts on Spotify, iTunes,
22:11
Google Play or on our website
22:15
just scroll to the podcast hub
22:17
in the middle of our homepage
22:19
and don't forget you can follow
22:21
Automotive News Canada on X
22:27
and you can find me there too under
22:31
Finally look for us on LinkedIn
22:33
just search Automotive News Canada
22:35
that does it for this episode of the
22:37
Automotive News Canada podcast
22:39
we hope you'll join us next time