The Bay Shortage Is Bad The Shop Owner Shortage Might Be Worse [E246]
About this episode
Chris Cotton dives into the growing crisis in automotive repair: not only is there a shortage of technicians and bays, but an even more critical shortage of shop owners. Zoning restrictions, complex regulations, and community resistance make opening new shops difficult, while rising complexity in vehicle technology demands strong leadership. Productivity improvements can help, but without succession planning and leadership development, the bottleneck will worsen. The episode also explores how consolidation in collision repair reflects these challenges and what it means for the industry's future.
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Host: Coach Chris Cotton
“Communities are regulating repair capacity out of existence… and they still expect same-day service.”
“At some point, towns are going to run out of places to fix the cars they depend on.”
“The bay shortage isn’t just a market problem—it’s a permitting problem.”
Data/Pressure
4. “Vehicles per bay hit about 253 by 2022—and it’s projected to top 261.”
5. “More cars. More complexity. Fewer bays. That’s the squeeze.” Productivity / ‘One tech’
6. “If you want more capacity, stop hunting bays and start hunting waste.”
7. “Most shops don’t have a technician shortage. They have a productivity leak.”
8. “Every owner knows the one technician I’m talking about.”
9. “Imagine every shop releasing one dead-weight tech back into the pool—suddenly half the industry improves.”
Owner shortage
10. “You don’t have a capacity problem—you have a leadership pipeline problem.”
11. “The technician shortage hurts production. The shop owner shortage threatens the industry.”
Consolidation / Collision
12. “Collision repair is showing us the future: consolidation accelerates when succession fails.”
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AutoFix-Auto Shop Coaching
shop owner shortage
"And in the magazine, in this article, it says we're not just having a base shortage, we're having a shop owner shortage."
A shop owner shortage means there aren't enough people running car repair shops, so it can be harder to get your car fixed.
A shop owner shortage refers to the lack of available and willing individuals to own and operate automotive repair shops, which impacts the capacity to service vehicles.
repair capacity
"Bays don't build themselves, shops don't run themselves, and communities don't magically make room for repair capacity."
Repair capacity means how many cars a repair shop can fix at one time.
Repair capacity is the ability of automotive repair shops to handle a certain number of vehicles for maintenance and repairs within a given time frame.
Aftermarket Matters
"There was a marketing summary published by Aftermarket Matters, and it talked about the trend."
Aftermarket Matters is a group that studies and talks about car parts and repair shops after cars are sold.
Aftermarket Matters is a company or organization that publishes research and analysis about trends in the automotive aftermarket industry.
vehicle repair bay
"In 2020, you had about 243 vehicles per bay. In 2022, about 253 vehicles per."
A repair bay is a spot in a garage where a car is worked on. More cars per bay means more work for each spot.
A vehicle repair bay is a designated space in a repair shop where a vehicle is serviced or repaired. The number of vehicles per bay indicates workload and capacity.
conditional use permit
"You know, auto repair and especially collision bodywork often gets classified as something that requires extra approvals, conditional use permits, special permits, hearings, restrictions, conditions. You know, you can literally see this in municipal documents where autobody repair facilities are listed as, you know, use subject to a conditional use permit."
A conditional use permit is a special permission from the city that lets a business do something in a place where it usually isn't allowed, like running a car repair shop in certain areas.
A conditional use permit is a special approval granted by local governments that allows a property to be used in a way that is not typically permitted under current zoning laws. Auto repair shops and collision centers often require these permits due to their impact on neighborhoods.
collision bodywork
"You know, auto repair and especially collision bodywork often gets classified as something that requires extra approvals, conditional use permits, special permits, hearings, restrictions, conditions."
Collision bodywork means fixing the outside parts of a car that got damaged in a crash, like dents or broken panels, so the car looks and works like new again.
Collision bodywork refers to the repair and restoration of a vehicle's body after it has been damaged in an accident or collision. This work often involves fixing dents, replacing panels, repainting, and ensuring the structural integrity of the vehicle.
land use permitting
"So even outside auto repair, specifically, you know, research on land use permitting points out that uncertainty and complexity can make building new repair shops prohibitively risky and costly. Which is exactly what kills new facility development."
Land use permitting is the set of rules and approvals needed before you can build or open a new place, like a car repair shop. These rules can make it hard or expensive to start new businesses.
Land use permitting refers to the regulatory process that controls how land can be used or developed, including building new businesses like auto repair shops. It often involves zoning laws, environmental regulations, and community input, which can create uncertainty and complexity for new businesses.
dealership repair wait times
"They still don't understand why they call the dealership and they say they're three weeks out. Nobody's connecting the dots."
Sometimes when you take your car to the official dealer for repairs, you have to wait a long time before they can fix it. This is because they might be very busy or waiting on parts.
Dealership repair wait times refer to the often long delays customers experience when trying to get their cars serviced at authorized brand dealerships. These delays can be due to high demand, limited service capacity, or parts availability.
productivity as pressure relief valve
"One of the things I think is productivity is the pressure relief valve, right? I think Cecil said this and I've been talking about it, but I think Cecil put the number into it."
Being productive helps people feel less stressed because they can get important things done, like fixing their cars quickly so they can get to work or school on time.
The idea of productivity as a pressure relief valve means that being productive helps reduce stress or pressure in life, such as by efficiently managing car repairs to avoid disruptions to daily activities like work or school.
technician shortage
""If every shop in America increased productivity by 10%, we wouldn't have a technician issue. Technician shortage. Whether the exact number's 10 or 12%, the point's rock solid.""
Technician shortage means there aren't enough skilled people to fix cars, so shops can't keep up with all the work.
Technician shortage refers to the lack of sufficient skilled automotive technicians available to work in repair shops, which limits the capacity of shops to service vehicles efficiently.
shop capacity
""The fastest way to create capacity is not adding bays, it's extracting wasted time from the bays you already have. If every shop owner looked at their staff and reduced the technicians by one, you know which one. That tech goes back into the pool and becomes the number two tech at another shop. Maybe, I don't know. I think one toxic unproductive tech can eat more leadership time than three solid ones. Those people clog workflow, they kill morale and force hero mode management. You know, the shop has a tech, but it doesn't have capacity.""
Shop capacity means how many cars a repair shop can fix at once. More workers or better work habits let them fix more cars.
Shop capacity refers to the maximum amount of work a repair shop can handle, often limited by the number of technicians and available work bays. Increasing capacity can involve adding more bays or improving productivity to reduce wasted time.
EV
"...equipment complexity across EV, ADAS, diagnostics, etc."
An EV is a car that runs on electricity instead of gas. It needs special care because it has different parts than regular cars.
EV stands for Electric Vehicle, which uses electric motors powered by batteries instead of internal combustion engines. EVs require specialized knowledge for maintenance and repair due to their unique components.
ADAS
"...equipment complexity across EV, ADAS, diagnostics, etc."
ADAS are safety features in cars that help you drive better and avoid accidents, like automatic braking or staying in your lane.
ADAS stands for Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems, which are electronic systems that help drivers with safety and driving tasks, such as lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, and automatic emergency braking.
diagnostics
"...equipment complexity across EV, ADAS, diagnostics, etc."
Diagnostics means checking a car with special tools to find out what's wrong with it.
Diagnostics refers to the process and tools used to identify problems in a vehicle's systems, often using specialized software and equipment to read error codes and sensor data.
collision industry
"Let's talk consolidation a minute and what it's doing in the collision industry? There was a collision industry article called Focus Advisors."
The collision industry is made up of places that fix cars after crashes or accidents, like body repair shops.
The collision industry refers to businesses and services involved in repairing vehicles after accidents, including body shops and related service providers.
industry consolidation
"Let's talk consolidation a minute and what it's doing in the collision industry? There was a collision industry article called Focus Advisors. It says larger operators acquired 450 plus locations in 2024..."
Industry consolidation means that big companies buy smaller ones so there are fewer companies but each is bigger.
Industry consolidation refers to the process where larger companies acquire smaller ones, resulting in fewer but bigger players dominating the market.
Focus Advisors
"There was a collision industry article called Focus Advisors. It says larger operators acquired 450 plus locations in 2024..."
Focus Advisors is a company that studies and gives advice about car repair shops that fix accident damage.
Focus Advisors is a consulting and research firm specializing in the collision repair industry, providing data and analysis on market trends and consolidation.
MSO (Multiple Shop Operator)
"It says larger operators acquired 450 plus locations in 2024, and the big five MSOs added 319 shops, representing about 30% of industry market share."
An MSO is a company that owns many car repair shops instead of just one.
MSO stands for Multiple Shop Operator, a company or group that owns and manages multiple collision repair shops, often consolidating the market.
scale wins
"Collision shows what happens when complexity rises, equipment cost jumps, insurers pressure speed and consistency, and scale wins. When your collision group is as big as an insurance company, then you can start pushing them back..."
Scale wins means big companies with lots of shops can do better and have more power than small ones.
Scale wins means that larger companies with more resources and locations can operate more efficiently and exert more influence in the market, often outperforming smaller competitors.
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