The used car market is the world of pre-owned cars—how many are available and what they cost. When people say it’s “not good,” it usually means deals are harder to find or prices are higher.
CarEdge.com is a website that helps people buy cars. They do things like research cars, contact dealers, and help you negotiate so you don’t have to do everything yourself.
Conversion rate is how often people who show interest actually end up buying. If more people are buying, dealers sell cars faster and prices can stay higher.
It’s basically a “how many cars are available right now” number. If there are fewer days of cars available, sellers have more leverage and prices tend to rise.
This is a pricing “thermometer” for used cars at dealer auctions. If the index goes up, wholesale used-car prices are rising.
Concept
EVs are actually outpacing non-electric vehicles
This highlights that different vehicle categories can appreciate at different rates. In this case, the market is treating EVs as holding value better (or rising faster) than non-electric vehicles, which can affect how dealers price trade-ins and inventory.
This number tells you how long the current supply of used cars would last if sales keep going the same way. A low number usually means cars are selling quickly and prices can be higher.
MSRP (Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price) is the sticker price a vehicle was sold for when new. The speaker is saying that pre-owned EVs used to be a much better deal versus their original MSRP, but those savings are shrinking as used prices rise.
“Days on market” means how many days a car has been advertised for sale. If it’s been sitting a long time, the dealer may be more willing to lower the price.
They’re pointing out the car has been sitting for about a month. If it hasn’t sold yet, it’s a good clue to check whether the price is realistic or if the dealer might lower it.
That’s a 2023 Ford F-150 pickup, in the XLT trim. It’s a very common “everyday” truck, so its used price changes are a big clue about what’s happening in the market.
Black Book is a well-known used-vehicle pricing data service that publishes market value trends. When the episode says Black Book shows similar increases, it implies multiple pricing indexes agree that wholesale/market values are moving up.
Demand shifts toward hybrids and EVs can affect used-car pricing across the board, especially for late-model electrified vehicles. If buyers increasingly want these powertrains, their used values can remain elevated even when other segments soften.
Dealer pricing behavior is a key driver of transaction prices. If dealers believe market conditions will support higher margins, they may be reluctant to lower prices even when buyers become more price-sensitive.
A pre-owned car is a used vehicle sold by dealers or private sellers after its initial purchase. In a market where new prices are rising and inventory is tight, pre-owned cars often become the default option, which can increase demand and pricing.
When asking prices move upwards, it means sellers are listing vehicles for higher amounts over time. That typically reflects stronger demand and/or tighter supply, and it can make it harder to find deals in the near term.
This means people have been behind on their car payments for a long time—at least five months. That’s a big red flag for lenders, so it can make it harder for others to get approved.
An auto loan is money a bank lends you to buy a car, and you pay it back over time. If banks make it easier to get approved, more people can buy cars—especially used ones.
This means the service talks to the dealer for you to try to get a better price. Instead of you doing all the back-and-forth, they handle it.
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Damn it, it's noon here in Venter City, New Jersey, and San Juan, Puerto Rico.
I wanted to say our nation's capital, but they haven't moved at the San Juan quite yet.
And this is CarAge Live for Wednesday, March 25th with your hosts, me, Ray, here in Venter City,
and Zach, hanging out again in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Hola, my son. How are you today?
Just questioning a lot of things at that intro, but it's all good.
I'm doing well. Thanks so much for tuning in, everyone.
Wednesday, March 25th. Appreciate you being here with us.
We're going to talk about the used car market, and oh my goodness, it is not good what is going on there.
But before we jump into the latest and greatest data,
we're going to remind you that today's show is brought to you by CarEdge.com.
For those of you that are unfamiliar for the past six years, me and my dad have been providing a car buying service
that takes care of research, dealer outreach, and even negotiation.
We learn what matters to you, contact car dealers for you,
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Now, we continue to run a promotion.
We have $200 off our car buying service and 20% off CarEdge Pro back at CarEdge.com.
We appreciate everyone that takes an interest in what we're doing and takes a look at our website.
Dad, we're going to talk about the used car market, and we have new data from Cox Automotive.
This comes from their Mannheim monthly report.
You ready for this?
I'm holding onto my seat, ladies and gentlemen.
You know what? We'll start with actually the simple before we even go to the charts.
Here are the key facts about what's going on in the used car market right now.
Tax refunds, they're high and a boon for consumers.
Wholesale values, appreciating.
Sales conversion rates, higher.
We have fortunately, dad, a little bit of normalcy in terms of day supply of inventory in the used car market.
Otherwise, you'll see here in a second that day supply is much lower than we would want it to be.
Let's start here, dad.
In the used car market today, tax refunds, which drive a lot of what's going on in terms of demand for used vehicles,
are up almost 11% year over year.
The average refund this year is $3,676 as compared to last year, which was $3,324.
More people with bigger tax refunds, dad.
That means we've got more used car demand.
Yeah, that means more people with bigger tax refunds are going to have to pay more for those used cars than they did last year.
Because the value of those used cars has appreciated.
Because, well, used car dealers are aware of the fact that those tax refunds are bigger this year.
What we see going on at the auctions is suggesting that prices are going up rather quickly on the wholesale level.
Yeah, so here's the Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index.
This is essentially an index that shows you values of used vehicles at wholesale dealer auctions.
We are up 5.3% year over year now.
Not every single type of vehicle is treated the same.
You can see here, certain vehicles are up more than others.
For example, EVs are actually outpacing non-electric vehicles in terms of appreciation.
And dad, what I wanted to pull up here was the day's supply.
So the day's supply of inventory right now is 25.1 days.
That is super, super, super low.
That's the chart all the way over on the right.
But it is higher than it has been the past couple of years.
The sales conversion rate, that's at 70%.
So that means more of the vehicles that make it to the dealer's auctions are actually selling.
So there's some desperation from the dealers to find quality used cars.
And they're bidding up the prices of them, which I've got a great visual for that in a second here that I'll show you.
But that's kind of the dynamic.
Consumers have more money as a result of the tax refunds that they've received.
Dealers are desperate to find good cars and they're bidding up the prices of them and buying them at a higher rate.
Yes, and we are seeing an appreciation to a rather large degree in the EV and hybrid side of things.
So dealers are especially bidding up prices on hybrids and EVs.
Because they're anticipating that those are going to be if gas prices continue to rise.
And I must admit, I forgot to check today to see where we're at.
But if gas prices continue to rise, the expectation is that we will see greater demand for hybrids and even EVs.
At one point in time, represented a tremendous value when it came to what you had to pay for a pre-owned EV in comparison to what the original MSRP was.
And some of those savings that had been there are starting to erode and evaporate.
Yeah, they absolutely are.
Now, here you go, Dad.
This is the chart.
This is really the chart that if you're watching and taking away one thing from today's show, this is why the used car market is screwed.
This is showing you the Mannheim Market Report, so the index that we were talking about a moment ago, how it has trended so far this year.
It is up 5.6% from the beginning of the year.
That's the gray line right here.
Every other line on this chart, including the 2014 to 2019 average, which is the dotted line, doesn't even come close to this.
And so if I scroll up here a little bit, whoops, it's actually right there.
Values have appreciated much more in early 2026 relative to last year and long-term averages.
Used cars are appreciating in value more and earlier in the year than they have over the past couple of decades here, two decades or so, at least a decade and a half.
That's something we haven't seen in a little bit.
That was maybe during the pandemic activity that was going on, but now it's happening again.
This is further proof in evidence that what we have been seeing from Blackbook on a weekly basis is indeed what is happening in the used car market.
We have the two biggest players, Cox Automotive, who owns Mannheim and Blackbook, who tracks about 95% of all wholesale activity on a weekly basis, both showing tremendous growth in the used car wholesale prices through the first three months of the year.
And at a much faster rate that is well beyond historic norms.
So, you start to look at those things.
I was having a Google messages chat with Igor earlier today because he was at the sale, and this is exactly what he's seeing, that EV values were skyrocketing.
They were above Mannheim market reports.
Dealers are paying way more for lesser quality vehicles than they have in the past.
They're just refusing to walk away from them.
And so, when you factor in what's actually going on on the ground, what Mannheim is reporting, what Blackbook is reporting, it just seems to me that this does not bode well for customers out there.
And I know one of the things I asked Igor, is this similar to when things went crazy in 2022, or is it slightly more nuanced?
And at this point, it's just something we really have to keep our eyes on because this is not historically normal what we're seeing.
Let's go ahead and do my favorite thing, which is a live experiment.
Before we do, you mentioned him, so we'll pull it up here.
For Igor, used cars are available, but quality used cars are scarce.
Values are shooting up across the board on all segments today.
I walked away with nothing.
Everything is way overpriced.
So these are some insights, both the data and the attic data from our community of what's going on at the dealer auctions.
And now, as we all know, what happens at the dealer auctions is essentially a leading indicator for what's going to happen on the retail side of things.
Let's do a live experiment.
So I'm going to go to caredge.com.
I'm going to click on shop use.
And what I'm especially interested in here, Dad, as we look at used vehicles, is I want to look at used vehicles that have been really recently put on the market for sale.
So I'm going over here on the left and I'm clicking on days on market.
I want to look at vehicles that, what do you say, in the last 30 days have been looked at for sale?
So let's change that days on market 30.
Now we're doing this search within Rockville, Maryland, so we'll stay there for a second.
We know, Dad, what was it?
Fords and Toyotas are the most popular used cars for sale.
So why don't we look at, you want to do some Toyotas?
Sure.
All righty.
So we're looking at, let's see here, CarMax, CarMax, CarMax.
Let's find one that's at a dealer, not at a CarMax.
Oh man, we're going to have to change our zip code here.
Or actually, you know what let's do?
Let's sort it by days on market newest.
Most recent.
Or actually, you know what I'm interested in?
Don't tell me.
Let's do days on market oldest.
Yeah.
Let's find some of these 30 day old used cars and let's see if there have been any price changes.
Okay.
Here we go, Ted Britt, Ford or Chantilly.
This particular vehicle, they're asking $36,500 and this is a used car that's been on their lot for 30 days.
Okay.
Now let's see here, Dad, I want to come down to a price history.
Okay, they've actually come down on price.
$38,000, $37,500, $37,000, $36,500.
It looks like every five days or so, they're dropping the price by about $500.
You could make a case if you're this dealer there, Dad, now in this moment, probably start to stop during those price drops or maybe even increase it.
I would think, yeah.
I mean, based on if they have buyers at the auctions.
Yeah.
My suspicion is that either they're used car managers there or they employ independent buyers to look at vehicles for them and report back as to what's going on at the auctions.
If you know that the values are escalating quickly, then at a certain point, you're going to look at some of your inventory and you're going to say to yourself, well, maybe it's time to start raising the price instead of lowering the prices.
Yeah, that's why I'm looking at some of these F-150s because, yeah, and you can see here, this dealership Alpacre, they haven't changed anything.
I'm looking at the F-150s because we know the Blackbook data showed us what was it that they had a significant price increase in pickup trucks.
Yeah, full-size pickup trucks.
But I think what's limiting you to some degree is that you first listed things no more than 30 days.
So if we could go back to look at some older vehicles and see if how the price adjustments have been on older vehicles that have been in their inventory for some time.
Okay.
Yeah, so let's do maybe like 75 to 100 days.
How about that?
Okay.
Yeah, that would be good.
That's three months.
That's three months.
All right.
I don't want to look at CarMax right now and I want to look at F-150s.
I think F-150s are really interesting.
Yes, especially considering how much they shot up in value last week, which was absolutely shocking to me.
Oh, it was crazy what happened.
Absolutely crazy what happened.
Give me one second here.
I don't know what the heck I just did on my computer.
All right, let me go back to this.
I pressed O. Oh, I'm sharing two tabs at once.
I don't know what I did then.
Okay, here we go.
You're the tech guy, not me.
Sometimes I'm not.
All right, here we go.
So we've got a 2023 Ford F-150 XLT.
Yes.
This one's been on the dealer's lot for 99 days.
Now, you can see here, Dad, they went from 34,000, 33,750, 33,000, 32,750, 32,000.
They've been at 32,000.
So maybe, and again, this is a light experiment.
Yes.
So let's switch in to see.
Maybe what's happening on the wholesale side is a week away from showing up on the retail side.
So very well-coded.
Yes.
This is like your moment in time if you're a used car shopper to get out there.
And again, if you're someone who's going to sell your vehicle, okay, you probably have,
I don't know, what do you think, through the whole spring selling season through April
to take advantage and maximize the value of the vehicle you're thinking of selling?
It would appear to me based on what we've seen increase value-wise.
Yeah.
And we're not even through the first 90 days of the year.
Yeah.
And we've seen a 5.6% increase in wholesale values at Panhand.
We've seen approximately the same type of increase in blackbook.
Yeah.
My suspicion, since the prices started going up much earlier this year and at a much higher
rate, I just have this really ugly feeling deep inside of me that we are not going to
have a normal year when it comes to prices.
I think we are going to continue to see wholesale prices moving upward at a more staggeringly
quicker pace than what we've seen over the past two or three years.
Typically, spring selling season, middle of May, we start seeing sales on the used car
side slow down.
We start seeing some of the pricing adjust.
I am not thinking that we're going to see that this year.
We have a rapidly selling pre-owned car sales.
The pay supply is low.
The days to turn are low.
There is an increased interest in hybrids and EVs.
I think it's almost as if there's a perfect storm that is going to keep used car values
elevated throughout most of the year when in normal times, they would start to go down
again mid-May to end of May.
I don't know that we're going to see that this year.
I don't think we will in my mind.
Yeah.
You could end up in a situation where used car prices stay elevated for all of 2026.
Part of what could corroborate that to be clear here is, have we ever seen another year
where the chart looks like this, where, again, we're the gray line right now?
There's a pretty big deviation between what's happening this year and what's happened in
recent history.
Maybe a vegan deviation.
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Yeah, it's huge.
It's significantly greater appreciation, much more quickly, than what one would anticipate
for spring selling season.
I think we're at a confluence of things that are going on that are really creating a perfect
storm that does not bode well for consumers out there.
We see that average new car-asking prices keep escalating as well.
They're up to, what, 50,300 hours is the average on automotive news.
We know that the number of new vehicles and inventories close to 3 million.
We know that those who can afford new are buying new.
Those who can't, and it's the vast majority who can't, are dropping down to used and they're
paying more to do it.
I just don't see dealers lowering prices anytime soon.
I think they look at this as an opportunity to make a few more dollars than they had been.
One more data point on the used car side of things, and then we will switch gears.
This chart ultimately shows you what's happening with sales, who sales so far this year are
up 2%, and day's supply, it's down 5%.
You're over a year, we've got sales up 2%, and day's supply down 5%.
That's another one of those confluence of activities going on here.
You've got more vehicles selling, and less inventory is ultimately the picture that's
being painted.
I think what that means, at least in the near term, and for the near term to May is
probably the next two to three months, if you're looking at a pre-owned car today,
it will probably be cheaper today than it will be tomorrow.
Yeah, I think that's the biggest takeaway.
Yeah, and it'll be cheaper today than it will be a week from tomorrow.
I think we're going to continue to see the asking prices moving upwards, so if there's
a ... and I'm not necessarily encouraging anybody to buy a car.
If you don't need a car, don't buy a car, but if you need a car, it'll probably be
cheaper to do something today than it will be in the not too distant future.
If you can find a car that you like that passes a pre-purchased inspection that is
everything it is that you were looking for in your next used car, try and negotiate as
much as you can and buy it today rather than a week from now, because I think if you were
to do that, you'll probably save a few dollars trying to buy it today.
I think he is well.
All right, Pops, you're ready to switch gears?
Yeah.
All right, we're going to talk about the loan market.
Dad, we have been following this for a while now, which is the issue we have with delinquent
auto loans.
This comes from a gentleman named Bill Pluge over on LinkedIn.
Below-prime auto loans, serious 60-plus days of delinquency are lasting longer and the
overall problem is getting bigger.
Another perspective of the was-is flow I shared last week, and similar to the excellent one
another gentleman posted recently.
I'm going to show you a chart here in a second.
Okay.
The key point that the share of 60-plus-day delinquent loans stuck in delinquency for five
months or more has tripled from 5% to 15% since 2019, while the overall 60-plus-day delinquency
rate has roughly doubled from 3.1% to 6.2%.
This points to slower cures, meaning people getting out of their delinquency and rising
long duration risk in the below-prime segment, a trend worth being aware of as we move through
2026.
All right, so here's the chart, Dad.
It's going to show you from January of 2019 to January of 2026.
The light area are those who have been in serious delinquency for one month.
The medium color area are those who have been in serious delinquency for two to four months,
and the dark area are those who have been in serious delinquency for five or more consecutive
months.
Are you ready?
You've got more people who have been in serious auto loan delinquency for six months.
Oh, seems like we lost Pops.
Maybe he'll back here in a moment.
We've got more people who have been in serious auto loan delinquency for six months, tripled
the number of people that have been in serious auto loan delinquency for five months or
more than we had back in 2019.
We're in a situation here where not only have the overall levels of delinquency increase
from 3.1% to 6.2%, so they have seriously doubled.
Delinquency rates have doubled.
We've tripled the number of people that actually have delinquencies for five months or more,
so hopefully Pops joins back here in a second, but that being said, you have an environment
where used car prices have obviously increased significantly, but these customers who maybe
could be in the market to buy a vehicle ultimately probably won't be able to get approved for
an auto loan because they've had such serious auto loan delinquency troubles.
This to me is very alarming, very, very concerning, and ultimately something that I think can play
a major role in what's going to happen in the auto industry and ultimately for retail
auto sales.
This to me is very, very, very concerning.
Not as concerning as my dad mysteriously going away, I don't know where Pops went, so hopefully
he's okay.
Maybe I got to jump off here in a second and check on him.
I think that's probably what I'll do, but definitely a trend that we're going to be keeping
our eyes on here at CarEdge.
Looks like he might be back.
I don't know what happened.
Literally I have no idea, but for whatever reason, I lost my internet connection here.
All good, Pops.
What I was talking about that is we've got double the level of delinquencies, 3.1% to
6.2%, and triple the level of those who have been in delinquency for five months or more.
I think this can play a serious role on what happens in the car market.
You know what's really interesting in that?
Is it usually banks don't wait five months to repossess your car?
If there's a growing number of people that are delinquent five months or more, that is
showing that the banks, for whatever reason, don't want to repossess that car and show
that loss, so maybe they're trying to manipulate what their profit and loss situation is going
to look like for this quarter.
I guess we can see what happens, but that's some damning information that the number of
delinquencies has actually doubled what it had been.
Once again, when we find ourselves in that situation, I believe the banks are somewhat
complicit as to what we have going on.
This could be an interesting dynamic, though, because people who would contemplate getting
a new used vehicle may not be able to because they have now a, I don't know, six-month-long
serious auto loan delinquency on their credit books.
This could theoretically slow down some of the consumer demand, but you and I have been
talking about it for a long time now, it's easier to get approved for an auto loan today
than ever before, which is also partly why a chart like this can exist, because it was
easier and has become easier to get approved for auto loans than ever before.
The criteria for approval seems to fluctuate with whatever it is the market needs at the
time.
What I mean by that is if the market is slowing down because, well, there's not enough credit-worthy
people out there, then suddenly the banks decide, well, we're going to open things up
to the less credit-worthy so we can keep the damn thing rolling.
Perhaps that's what we're seeing going on at the moment, which is ultimately it just
buries more consumers and eventually, and nobody can predict when that eventually is,
but eventually the whole thing blows up in everybody's face.
Well, hopefully not, but seems like it's inevitable.
Now, let's call it a show a little bit early today.
Again, a friendly reminder for those of you that are unfamiliar, today's show is brought
to you by CarEdge.com, the company my dad and I started six years ago.
We provide car buying services.
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We appreciate everyone tuning in Monday through Friday here on CarEdge Live.
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Otherwise, enjoy the day and we'll be back here tomorrow with more CarEdge Live.
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We'll be back tomorrow, folks.
See you then.
Thanks everybody.
See you handsome.
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About this episode
Cox Automotive’s Mannheim data paints a grim picture: tax refunds are boosting used-car demand, wholesale values are rising fast (up about 5.6% YTD), and inventory is tight (around 25 days supply). Dealers are bidding harder at auctions, especially for hybrids and EVs, eroding the old “deal” on pre-owned electrics. A quick CarEdge live search suggests prices may be dropping slowly on some fresh listings, but the broader trend points to elevated asking prices. The hosts also flag a loan risk: below-prime auto delinquencies are lingering longer, with serious 60+ day issues doubling and long-duration cases tripling since 2019.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest news on the used car market. Tune in to learn more! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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