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#367: SpaceX, Waymo, Lucid, and Alex’s Tesla Solar Obsession

#367: SpaceX, Waymo, Lucid, and Alex’s Tesla Solar Obsession

Autonocast Jul 08, 2026
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About this episode

SpaceX IPO buzz kicks off a wide-ranging chat that quickly turns into Alex Roy’s Tesla solar obsession—Powerwalls, off-grid mode, and the surprisingly addictive app animations that make him lose sleep. The hosts debate how much “data-as-distraction” is acceptable, comparing Tesla’s current minimal regen display to the more visually busy Prius era. They also touch on falling battery prices via a portable solar setup. From there, the conversation pivots to SpaceX’s valuation leap, potential Tesla/SpaceX convergence, and what that could mean for future mobility and autonomy.

Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Car

Gen 1 Toyota Prius

"It wasn't Tesla. It was a Gen 1 Toyota Prius, which had the display which showed battery wheels and, you know, engine. And you can see the arrows change direction based on, you know, acceleration, deceleration and cruising."

The first Prius generation had a screen that showed what the car was doing with energy. As you speed up, slow down, or cruise, the display changes to show whether the battery is helping or being charged.

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battery wheels

"It was a Gen 1 Toyota Prius, which had the display which showed battery wheels and, you know, engine."

It’s basically the Prius’ way of showing whether the battery is powering the wheels. When the display indicates the battery is doing the work, the car is using electricity to move you.

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drivetrain

"Alex, Alex, back then the idea of like a drivetrain that that that split between electric and gas was very it was a jarring."

A drivetrain is the set of parts that gets power from the car’s power source to the wheels. Think of it as the power path that makes the car move.

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Car

Tesla Model S

"...hing. You may have forgotten the first generation Model S had the center of the display instead of its comm..."

The Tesla Model S is an electric car that doesn’t use gasoline. It has a big screen inside that controls many functions. The podcast is pointing out that the earliest versions had the screen placed in the center, and later versions changed that layout.

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regenerative braking

"But let me tell you something. You may have forgotten the first generation Model S had the center of the display instead of its commuter was that regent was a regen display with all kinds of metrics and what yada yada."

Regenerative braking is how an electric car recovers energy when you slow down. It turns some of the car’s motion into electricity to recharge the battery instead of wasting it as heat.

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regen display

"But let me tell you something. You may have forgotten the first generation Model S had the center of the display instead of its commuter was that regent was a regen display with all kinds of metrics and what yada yada."

A regen display shows when the car is slowing down by turning motion back into electricity. It helps you see how strongly the car is “braking” and charging at the same time.

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power walls

"The whole thing, four power walls, maximum, you know, panels on the roof. Integration with my charging system."

“Power walls” are Tesla home batteries. They store electricity from your solar panels so you can use it later, including for charging your electric car.

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range estimates

"We're trying to figure out exactly what the range is on a Tesla... the range estimates never, you know, really would never line up..."

“Range estimates” are the predicted distance an EV can go on one charge. In real life, the actual distance can be more or less depending on how you drive and the weather.

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nominal figure

"There was always like a nominal figure and the actual capacity was not the same as the nominal."

A “nominal figure” is the official number someone quotes for battery size. Your car’s usable battery energy can be a bit different from that headline number.

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Brand

Pekron

"No, no, I've got a company called Pekron. You can buy it. It's crazy."

Pekron is the brand/company the speaker says makes the portable solar battery setup they bought.

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F 3000

"So I got it's called the the F 3000 is not sponsored. But it's incredible for 800 bucks."

“F 3000” sounds like the model number of the portable battery/solar kit the speaker purchased. It’s the specific unit they’re talking about when they mention the battery capacity and solar charging.

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kilowatt hours

"You can get three kilowatt hours of LFP batteries, which is a lot."

Kilowatt-hours (kWh) tell you how much energy a battery can store. More kWh usually means the battery can power devices for longer.

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LFP batteries

"You can get three kilowatt hours of LFP batteries, which is a lot."

LFP batteries are a type of lithium battery that uses iron and phosphate. People like them because they tend to last a long time and are generally considered safer than some other lithium battery types.

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solar panel

"and I got a 300 watt solar panel. So I could pretty much charge this three kilowatt hour battery like during the day if it's if it's sunny."

A solar panel converts sunlight into electricity using photovoltaic cells. In this context, it’s used to recharge a portable battery during the day when it’s sunny.

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induction burner

"So I have a little like induction burner."

An induction burner cooks by using magnetism to heat the pot or pan directly. It’s popular for camping because it can be powered from a battery setup and heats efficiently.

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Concept

off grid

"You don't actually necessarily know I'm off grid right now."

“Off grid” means you’re not depending on the regular power company for electricity. You usually rely on solar and a battery to run your home.

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Term

ROI

"But I like to know what the ROI is on that."

ROI means “did this investment pay off?” It compares what you spent to what you save or earn back later.

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Concept

virtual power wall

"So I have the virtual power wall set up there is on a power company. So I'm kicking money back to the grid."

A “virtual power wall” is a way to use your home battery as part of the power grid. It can send stored electricity back to the utility when it’s needed.

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Concept

kicking money back to the grid

"So I have the virtual power wall set up there is on a power company. So I'm kicking money back to the grid."

This means your system can send extra electricity to the utility company, and you get paid or credited for it. It’s like selling your surplus power back to the grid.

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Car

Porsche 928

"I just got my air conditioning fixed in 928 ... What year? The air conditioning works at it's 84"

The Porsche 928 is an older Porsche grand-touring car—basically a comfortable, long-distance coupe with a V8 engine. Here they’re talking about their specific 1984 928 and how they just had the air conditioning repaired so it’s nicer to drive again.

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air conditioning

"I just got my air conditioning fixed in 928"

Air conditioning is the system that cools the car’s cabin and helps keep the windows from fogging. If it’s broken on an older car, getting it fixed can make the car much more pleasant to drive.

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Term

deadheading

"What is it? Is it deadheading or something like that when it's just like empty miles? Zero occupant miles."

Deadheading means the car drives while nobody is inside. It’s basically repositioning to get to the next customer, and those miles cost money but don’t earn money.

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zero occupant miles

"Is it deadheading or something like that when it's just like empty miles? Zero occupant miles."

Zero occupant miles are miles driven with nobody in the car. If a lot of miles are like that, the service may be less profitable because it’s spending time and energy without carrying customers.

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Term

S1

"Yeah. And I that that would likely be revealed in an S1. I think that they want to figure that out before they do that."

“S1” here sounds like a particular version of the autonomous system or vehicle. The speaker is saying that once it’s released, we’ll be able to see how the business really works financially.

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Concept

economics

"you get a real look at the economics and right now they don't have to do that. ... paints like a really, you know, beautiful economic picture without actually seeing what's like how much money they're losing."

Here “economics” means whether the autonomous service makes money. It’s not just about how many rides they claim—it’s about the real costs versus the real income.

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IPO

"So I'm just skeptical that they would do an IPO. I could be totally wrong. I think they'll raise they'll continue to raise money, though."

An IPO is when a private company becomes publicly traded by selling shares to regular investors. The speaker thinks they might delay that until they have clearer numbers on costs.

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Term

level four safety metrics

"I feel like once autonomy is baked and there's multiple players that have, you know, level four safety metrics are baked, people are cool with it, then it's like airlines."

“Level four” means the car can handle driving on its own in certain situations. “Safety metrics” are the numbers and tests used to prove how safe it is.

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Concept

race to efficiency

"then it's like airlines. It's a race to efficiency."

“Race to efficiency” means companies compete to spend less and get more output from their vehicles. The speaker compares it to airlines, where the big competition becomes cost and how well you run the operation.

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Place

Phoenix

"because otherwise they wouldn't use it like in Phoenix. In Phoenix, they use move, move is the operational like they don't."

Phoenix is a city in Arizona. The hosts mention it because Waymo has used its self-driving service there, so the cost and operations talk is grounded in a real location.

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profit margin

"Move is whatever moves cost is is passed on to Waymo. Then there's some profit margin in there."

Profit margin is how much money is left over after you pay the costs to run something. The host is saying that after covering operating costs, there’s still some leftover profit.

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Concept

counterfactual thing

"But like in general at a high level, doing the counterfactual thing is a risky game, I think, in this space."

A counterfactual is like asking “what if this hadn’t happened?” In safety debates, it’s tricky because you can’t directly observe the alternate outcome, so the argument can be used in different ways.

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autopilot

"Josh Brown, I mean, the weeks before he passed away, the first American to pass away in autopilot involved crash."

Autopilot is a car feature that can help drive for you, like keeping speed and steering. It’s helpful, but it still isn’t the same as a car that can drive by itself without you paying attention.

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Person

Elon

"Elon's done a version of this, right, where where and like literally Josh Brown... Elon had retweeted his his his video of of autopilot saving him."

This “Elon” is Elon Musk. He’s been talking publicly about how to judge safety claims for advanced driver-assistance features, and whether you should count benefits or focus on how people use the system.

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Waymo

"And what does this have to do with Waymo being getting a bad rap?"

Waymo is a company that works on self-driving technology. The discussion here is about how people judge its safety claims and why that affects its reputation.

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computational model

"Well, the idea of using a computational model to show that, oh, we achieve something better than a human could be you."

A computational model is basically a computer simulation or prediction tool. In this discussion, it’s about using software to argue that a self-driving system can do better than people, and whether those arguments could backfire.

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Concept

perceived perceptions

"And you're right, and her people are really bad. [1823.8s] They're really bad at measuring actual risk. [1826.1s] Perceived perceptions are crazy. [1828.6s] People are afraid of shark attacks, but not mosquitoes."

The speaker is talking about how people’s fears can be out of proportion. Something can feel scary (like shark attacks) even if it’s not the biggest real danger.

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AVs

"And so, you know, airplanes, but not cars. [1833.9s] Airplane crashes into the seventies were massive and horrific [1838.2s] with hundreds of casualties, had zero effect on plane tickets or at all, none. [1844.9s] And so we're on the way there much faster with AVs, much faster."

AVs are cars that can drive themselves using cameras, sensors, and computers. The idea is that as more AVs are on the road, people may learn to judge their safety differently over time.

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freeway rides

"So why do you think Waymo has backed off on freeway rides? ... once I ordered a Waymo from the airport, it was like 40 minutes to my house."

“Freeway rides” means the self-driving service is operating on a highway. Highways are harder for driverless cars because things move faster and there are more tricky situations like merges and construction.

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cones

"Probably there were, they had maybe a suboptimal number of, you know, events in the vicinity of the cones. And they just didn't want to have to deal with people complaining about it."

Cones are the orange markers used in road construction to show drivers where lanes are closed. Self-driving cars have to understand those zones correctly, and if they’re unsure, they may act more cautiously or avoid the area.

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construction

"breaking incidents, the vicinity of construction a lot on a highway. And we just released that product. I'd pull it back too."

“Construction” means the road is being worked on, so lanes and traffic flow can change. Driverless cars may find those zones harder, so the company might pull back to avoid problems.

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envelope

"I'd rather pull back to an envelope where, you know, close to 100% of the customer experience is awesome. And then re-release it later when it's baked."

An “envelope” here means the range of situations where the self-driving system is confident it can handle things well. If the conditions are outside that range, the company may pause service until it’s improved.

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customer experience

"I'd rather pull back to an envelope where, you know, close to 100% of the customer experience is awesome. And then re-release it later when it's baked."

“Customer experience” means what the rider feels during the trip—like whether the ride is smooth and predictable. The host is saying Waymo might pause service until the ride consistently feels great to most people.

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Uber CTO

"we also have like the Uber CTO posting a video of, of what I, I guess I could call an aggressive Waymo move, like driving in the wrong lane, but then switching over."

Uber CTO means Uber’s top technology executive. The speaker brings it up because that person posted a video showing what they consider an aggressive driving move, which is notable because Uber and Waymo are partners.

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wrong lane

"we also have like the Uber CTO posting a video of, of what I, I guess I could call an aggressive Waymo move, like driving in the wrong lane, but then switching over."

“Wrong lane” means the car is in a lane it shouldn’t be in for where it’s going. For self-driving cars, that’s a big deal because it can confuse other drivers and create unsafe situations.

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cruise vehicles

"But I do think that that is the difficult balance, which is back in the day when I would be in the cruise vehicles, they, I would have cars getting angry and like busting around on a right-hand turn to pass..."

Cruise vehicles are self-driving cars from a company called Cruise. The speaker is saying that when these cars behaved a certain way, other drivers sometimes got annoyed and drove more aggressively around them.

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Concept

balance between not holding up traffic and creating unsafe conditions

"Um, and so people will get upset and, you know, so there is, there is a balance between not holding up traffic and creating actually more unsafe conditions because people start driving more aggressively around you and pendulum swinging to the other, the other end."

This describes a core challenge in autonomous driving: finding the right behavior that keeps traffic moving without triggering risky reactions from human drivers. If an autonomous vehicle is too conservative, people may pass aggressively; if it’s too assertive, it can directly increase risk—so the system has to avoid a “pendulum swing” in either direction.

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Concept

fully driverless vehicle

"So another thing that I'd never been in, in a fully driverless vehicle going [2096.4s] at that speed before."

A fully driverless vehicle is a car that drives itself without a person ready to take control. The speaker is reacting to how different it feels when you’ve never ridden in one at highway speeds.

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Brand

Lucid

"Well, um, so what, uh, really alarmed me in the news this week is that, uh, ... you see Lucid's Ima Diallo left the company."

Lucid is an electric-car company. The hosts mention it because there’s important news about people leaving the company, which can affect how the company builds and plans its cars.

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Person

Ima Diallo

"you see Lucid's Ima Diallo left the company. Yeah."

Ima Diallo is a person in leadership at Lucid. The discussion suggests her leaving is a big enough change that it could affect what Lucid does next.

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Term

electric motors

"I mean Lucid has been, you know, electric, electric motors Lucid. That's E mod and they're really good."

An electric motor is the main power unit in an EV. It uses electricity from the battery to spin and move the car, and more efficient motors can help the car travel farther.

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Term

LiDAR

"It's always weird in Portland when you see a vehicle with LiDAR because we don't tend to be a, uh, an epicenter for, for any kind of automated vehicle development"

LiDAR is a sensor that uses lasers to measure how far away things are. It helps self-driving systems “see” the world in 3D so they can understand where cars, pedestrians, and obstacles are.

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L three

"from General Motors, the, the big, uh, the L three development system on the big, uh, SUVs, which will debut on the Cadillac IQ"

“L three” means Level 3 self-driving. The car can do a lot of the driving in specific situations, but the driver still has to be ready to take over when the system asks.

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multi-domain development testing

"So they are doing multi-domain development testing, maybe validation at this point. I imagine they're still in development, but, um, yeah"

This means they’re testing the self-driving system as a whole, across different parts of the car’s computer system. Instead of checking one feature at a time, they verify that perception, decision-making, and driving control all work together.

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sensors were not like fully integrated

"it was definitely development because like the sensors were not like fully integrated or anything like that."

“Fully integrated” sensors means the hardware and software are tightly connected so the vehicle can fuse sensor data reliably and consistently. When sensors aren’t fully integrated, it often indicates a prototype stage where the system may not yet be optimized for real-world performance.

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self-driving vehicles

"speaking of lucid and sort of self-driving vehicles and things is we've got a couple of 2026 is going to be interesting the second half of the year."

Self-driving vehicles are cars that can steer, accelerate, and brake using sensors and computer software. Some systems still need a human to supervise, while others aim to drive on their own.

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Term

fully driverless rides

"do you think any of this is going to happen for real in 2026, early 2027? Like, like there will be fully driverless rides available to the public."

Fully driverless rides are trips where there isn’t a person sitting in the driver’s seat. The car is expected to handle driving by itself, which is harder than just having driver-assist features.

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AV

"Okay. So let's just focus on the AV perspective because, you know, the other stuff, by the end of this year, so in six months, do you think that any other company besides Tesla and Waymo,"

AV means autonomous vehicle—basically a car that drives itself using sensors and software. The discussion is about whether that kind of driving will be available to the public soon.

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Brand

Wave

"but I've had three wave rides in different cities. Oh, they were open route rides, [2478.5s] meaning like I could change route on the ride and they're all terrific. I felt that that was [2483.8s] or very close to FSD parody for ride comfort, which is exceptional."

Wave is a self-driving ride service the host has taken. They say you can change the route during the trip and that the ride feels very smooth, similar to what they associate with Tesla’s advanced driving software.

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FSD

"I felt that that was [2483.8s] or very close to FSD parody for ride comfort, which is exceptional."

FSD stands for Full Self-Driving, Tesla’s software for helping the car drive more on its own. Here, the host is saying Wave’s ride experience felt similar to what they associate with Tesla’s advanced driving behavior.

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Concept

robotaxi

"I think that there is going to be [2519.5s] a number of companies that are going to have robotaxi services launching with a partner like [2526.5s] Uber."

A robotaxi is a taxi that drives itself. The discussion here is about when companies will start offering these rides and whether someone will still be in the car to watch and take over if needed.

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Term

safety wheel

"And I believe that they're, but they will all have humans behind the safety wheel through [2532.2s] the end of this year."

The “safety wheel” means a person is still in the driver’s seat with the ability to take control. The host is saying that companies may not fully remove humans yet.

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Term

electrons

"Things are moving around, folks. Electrons are moving. It's moving around, but I remain off grid."

Electrons are the tiny charged particles that make electricity work. When the host says “electrons are moving,” they mean the electrical energy is actually flowing.

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Car

Ferrari Luce

"...verything I said last week was wrong. The Ferrari Luce will sell out in the Asian market. It'll be a suc..."

The Ferrari Luce is a Ferrari car, meaning it’s a high-performance vehicle made by Ferrari. The podcast is saying it’s expected to be very popular in parts of Asia and may sell out quickly. That usually means there aren’t many available cars for everyone who wants one.

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