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AAH #709 - The SAAR is Slowing, That Wasn't Supposed to Happen
AAH #709 - The SAAR is Slowing, That Wasn't Supposed to Happen
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About this episode
A deep dive into the current state of the automotive market reveals unexpected trends, including a slowdown in sales forecasts and shifting consumer preferences. Guests Jeff Schuster from Global Data and David Welch from Bloomberg discuss the implications of the recent drop in the SAAR, the impact of high vehicle prices and interest rates, and the challenges facing automakers in producing affordable models. The conversation also touches on the future of electric vehicles, the role of hybrids, and the potential for new entrants in the market, including Chinese manufacturers.
Topics:
sales forecasts
consumer preferences
electric vehicles
hybrids
affordability
market trends
Chinese manufacturers
automaker strategies
Cars:
BrightDrop Zevo
Cadillac Escalade
Chevrolet Corvette
Chevrolet Volt
Chrysler Pacifica
Dodge Ram
Ford Escape
Ford Maverick
Lamborghini Urus
TOPICS: Car Sales PANEL: Jeff Schuster, Global Data; David Welch, Bloomberg; Gary Vasilash, shinymetalboxes.net; John McElroy, Autoline.tv
Filter:
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Technical
Too Afraid to Ask
Car
Ford Maverick
"...sive. Speaker 5: So at looking forward, Okay, the Maverick. I think starts under thirty, but most of themsel..."
Car
Ford Escape
"...ptioned up exactly. And then the uh you know, the escape starts at thirty five, so you know, Ford brand fo..."
Car
Chevrolet Volt
"...u can go this. I remember remember when the Chevy volt and it was discovered, the first generation. Occa..."
Car
Chrysler Pacifica
"...s. You know, when when Chrysler came out with the pacifica plug in hybrid, they said, no, we'll just call it..."
Car
Chevrolet Corvette
"...ast says there's going to be an electric Stingray corvette built in Lancing Grand River, not in Bowling Gree..."
Car
Lamborghini Urus
"...rt of like a you know, imagine like a Lamborghini Urus sort of configuration, right, uh. And they did ha..."
Car
Zevo Bright Drop
"...a wholly owned subsidiary. That structure allowed bright Drop to operate with the agility and innovation of a t..."
Car
Dodge Ram
"..., GM. What else is. Speaker 2: Mercedes through a ram is Well, they don't have vans per se, but they're..."
Car
Cadillac Escalade
"... to have you know, from bolt On up to Hummers and escalades a pretty good waterfront of vehicles covered. But..."
Select text to request an explanation
Speaker 1: I'll don't line after hours. It is brought to you
by bridge Stone Tires Solutions for your Journey.
Speaker 2: Good afternoon, mister Vassil ask how are you. I'm doing well.
You got something to stump usif so?
Speaker 3: You had a piece on LinkedIn this week about motorcycles.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did so.
Speaker 3: I have a question for you about motorcycles.
Speaker 4: And this is this is.
Speaker 3: This is like a fungo. I'm just just throwing this
ball and you're just gonna whack it.
Speaker 2: This is just so easy, let's hear it.
Speaker 5: Okay.
Speaker 3: So on August twenty ninth, eighteen eighty five, two guys pended the motorcycle. What were their names? Their full names?
Speaker 5: And what do they call it?
Speaker 2: Well, it wasn't Harley and Davidson. I'm pretty sure of that.
Who would have patented? Okay, you got to give us
some hints here in the US or in Europe. Probably
happened in Europe first, That's what I'm thereing.
Speaker 5: Keep going.
Speaker 2: Okay, first, and what did they call it? We didn't
get to who they are yet. Oh, we don't get
to who they are. I don't think I'm going to
get to who they are. Oh, I'm sure Okay, well
we got to let everybody know. We got Jeff Schuster
from Global Data here, David Welch from Bloomberg here. So
are you guys stumped too? You have any ideas? You
can say anything you want because you think in German.
But yeah, that's the sermons far as.
Speaker 5: I might tell you. But you're going to iteal you.
Speaker 2: I would think French.
Speaker 3: Actually, wow, So the European Union here practical? No, nobody
said Britain. So I guess we do have a European
Union here. First of all, I'm surprised you didn't think
it was Harley and Davidson.
Speaker 5: That was actually my first thoughts.
Speaker 3: See that was that was what I don't know, but it was actually it was actually Gottlee Dommler in Wilhelm maybeck really and they called it the Right Wagon.
Speaker 2: I don't know that history at all. That's amazing, boy,
I have never heard that.
Speaker 3: So Harley Davidson was founded actually in nineteen o three, but it didn't become incorporated as the Harley Davison Motorcycle Company Harley Davison Motor Company until September seventeenth, nineteen oh seven.
So if we ever have a show on September seventeenth.
Speaker 2: Keep that, we keep that in mind. But wow, Diamer.
Speaker 5: Harley has been in the news in the past couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: Right, they dropped their their DEI ice from.
Speaker 5: Her DEI program. Then ford ford Is also reined it
in a bit.
Speaker 2: That's right. But let's get to other stuff. We got
Jeff Schuster here and I'm dying to ask him, Jeff, what is going on in the American market right now?
Because I asked this at the beginning of this year, everybody was like, Oh, thank god, we got the chip shortage behind us. You know, the colded stuff is behind us.
This is going to be a good year. We're going
to go over sixteen million SAR. And what I'm reading
now is augustar is going to come in at fifteen point two million. That's way below what everyone thought it
would be.
Speaker 3: And this is perfect timing because you guys came out with your numbers today.
Speaker 5: That surprises me too, because weren't there some there should have not a lot, but some sales from the CDK hack in July. Yeah, it got punted into August, so
I would have thought August would be artificially a little bit higher.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and that's the issue is so obviously June lower because of the hack. July you expected a rebound, we
saw some didn't really see what we were expecting. August
is a repeat of that. Really, So now we've got
three months of a down market that didn't get the lift that we expected back up from from the CDK hack.
Speaker 4: And now three months, in my book, does.
Speaker 6: Make a trend, and I think we are looking at a slowing or at least a leveling off of demand kind of in the sub could be sub sixteen. We're
teetering on fifteen nine sixteen at the moment for the for the US sales for the year, for the year still you know, not a bad year, no, certainly, but it's not what everybody not what the expert.
Speaker 3: What do you guys think at the beginning of the year, what was your prediction?
Speaker 6: So we were we were actually at sixteen one of the beginning of the year, and then the spring May was May was strong. The spring led us to are
we looking at a stronger market?
Speaker 4: Do we need to bump this up?
Speaker 6: So we were kind of between sixteen one and sixteen two, and then the last three months is pulling us back.
So I think the pattern is, you know, we're looking for a second half of the year, you get maybe you get some interest rate cuts that now were likely to see in September. Maybe you get prices moderating and falling.
They haven't to the extent that we had hoped, but they are.
Speaker 4: It's not enough.
Speaker 2: So could it be consumers are reading the news or watching the news and thinking, here's Jerome poul He's going to cut interest rates. If I hold off, I might
get I mean, do consumers think that way when it comes to buying.
Speaker 6: I think they've gotten quite savvy, and I think they're paying attention. Certainly, Covid led everybody to figure out ways
around around problems. And I think obviously the vehicle industry
was a problem. Just trying to find a vehicle, let
alone one that you wanted, was an issue.
Speaker 5: Which is just monthly payment shock. People go to the
dealership and they want to buy a car, and between the prices that are still high. Okay, everyone talks about
rebates and all this, but they're still historically high, and interest rates are really high. You're looking at monthly payments
that are still the average payments still seven to thirty five a month.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you've got a forty five thousand dollars average that's been there for a while on a vehicle transaction price incentives are rising to help offset that, but again there's still well below historic levels.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's monthly.
Speaker 4: I think it's I think consumers.
Speaker 6: We've turned this into a luxury vehicle market essentially, and I think you've displaced a lot of consumers that haven't come back in yet. Now the question will be, and
this is why you know, maybe a lower market is our future. Will those buyers be able to come back in?
Will prices get down? Will interest rates fall enough to
get that monthly payment down so that your average consumer can afford a new vehicle again?
Speaker 3: Will the OEMs be interested perhaps in making vehicles that are somewhat more affordable for these consumers, or will they just simply say you know what I bother.
Speaker 5: GM's having pretty good success with the tracks that sells for you know, under twenty five, starts around twenty one.
Speaker 2: That's doing very well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you look at their portfolio, I mean away from yeah, yeah, they're all expensive vehicles. Yes, we've got
this one that's inexpensive.
Speaker 5: So at looking forward, Okay, the Maverick. I think starts
under thirty, but most of themselves are well more. Well,
they're optioned up exactly. And then the uh you know,
the escape starts at thirty five, so you know, Ford brand for every man, every woman, every family. They're not
saying much that gets down in the twenties like attracts.
Does who else really plays there? Jeffrey, Look at what Kiya, Hyundai.
Speaker 6: Dai are dominating. Maybe yeah they do right, Yeah, Nissan.
Speaker 5: There aren't a lot. It's there's not a lot of.
Speaker 2: Your choices are because if you can't make money there, and these guys are getting a story excoriated by Wall Street unless they improve their margins, so they.
Speaker 6: Move all product margin play right, right, But at some point it tips, and I think they have to They have to refocus and figure out how to make how to make money in these lower segments.
Speaker 5: Again, we're back to what Roger Smith said. Uh, you
know that the entry vehicle is a used buick. But
that's where we are right. Our vehicles look, the average
payment being seven to thirty five a month. Now that's
for a forty six forty eight thousand dollars vehicle. But
even if most of these cheaper vehicles are in the high thirties, you're still looking at payments in the six hundreds, five hundreds. Average household incomes what sixty nine thousand. So
I did a story in this about it when they hit the peak of like seven eighty a month. Nerd
wilet dot com has you know, loan information so far, but they also have what families should be spending on their mortgage, on their car payment and all that, and what the average unless they're spending disproportionately on cars, what they should be spending is like three hundred a month.
And there's just not a lot for sale there. So
it is well, I mean it's it's a luxury marketing when you're not buying luxury, and you know that's where we are. You know, could could somebody go in and
make a lot of profit but not margin by by selling people those vehicles and marketing it. Yeah, they probably could.
Speaker 2: Get volume right right.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 6: Leasing leasing has come back a little bit, but again not not where it needs to be too for those that are trying to get that monthly payment down and get into something. Even those have gone through the roof.
Speaker 2: So it's incoming on the auto industry to come out with cars that are more affordable, right.
Speaker 3: If there's a reason for them to do it though, right, and there lies you know, I mean they're there in lies a question. And this is the point when we
were talking before the show, you know about like Chinese cars.
So what what is the American consumer to do when she or he hears about vehicles that are highly economical and then they go to their local Ford dealer and say, there's nothing here that I can afford. And I understand
that there are these vehicles that are being sold in other parts of the world, you know, of the Western world that are they are costing a fraction of that.
Speaker 5: They get upset, they will, and maybe unnecessarily so, because yes, Chinese vehicles are cheaper. But if you can muligate that
same car, it's it's not selling for eight twelve thousand in the US, you know.
Speaker 2: But you can homologate it for two or three thousand bucks.
So if it's let's say a Ford.
Speaker 5: But but it's not just maligating it for US emissions.
You know, there are other safety requirements.
Speaker 2: I'm talking the whole ball of wax.
Speaker 5: I think I'm not sure it's only three thousand. I've
been told it's more. The point is they will be
cheaper than most of the cars on the market in the US. But you're not going to get it for
six or eight thousand.
Speaker 2: No, no, no no.
Speaker 5: So when people read this, they're like, oh my god, I'm getting gouged. And it's just like, you know, the
reporting that people will react to won't be as radical as the stories we've seen on this where you know, look these like and there are also much smaller vehicles that Americans clearly don't want, right, but Chinese vehicles that they came here would find willing buyers in the same way the Korean vehicles did when they first got here, in Japanese vehicles did when they first got here. They
were usable transportation, for sure they would.
Speaker 2: But you know, the political reality is there's not going to be any Chinese cars in this country, I believe, not, even if they're made in Mexico, Thailand or Vietnam or any other country.
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, they're moving the wall. That off, right,
And this is.
Speaker 2: A bipartisan effort. It regardless of who ends up in
the White House. That's right.
Speaker 5: It doesn't even have to be tariffs. The Commerce Department
is all over connected vehicles. Every car these days is connected.
So the only way that Chinese could legally right now bring a vehicle in is build at Mexico and all of the all of the software, connected software, and some of the hardware. I mean that these rules aren't finalized.
We wrote about it, but there you'll see the what'll be pretty close to the final proposal in the next month or so, and then there'll be another common period probably going to effect next year, finalized in January. What
the proposal looks like right now is saw any connected software from China z A, no goo, some of the hardware, and what they're saying is like cellul radios, transmitters, anything where a signal could be intercepted. They don't want Chinese
knowing where all the vehicles are and where people's individual people's vehicles are. So this is the excuse the US anyways.
So if that goes through and it's law or you know, it's the rules, you have to build it in Mexico.
You have to do it, you know, find sources for American, Canadian, European connected software and some hardware, a lot of hoops they have to go through to get vehicles into this market.
But what if this.
Speaker 3: Were a twenty thousand dollars or eighteen thousand dollars ice vehicle that was not connected with anything beyond FM radio.
Speaker 5: I mean, look, theoretically you'd be able to bring it in.
You could do it.
Speaker 2: So if theoretically, right now we put it one hundred percent tariffs, Okay, Now we're looking at putting in any connected car Chinese stuff. We're going to block that too.
If they find some way around that, we're going to figure out another way to block them. I'm telling you
there's no way Chinese going.
Speaker 5: To both parties. All parties have a strong will to
do this. Look, I remember in college it took a
class the Economic Development of Japan. We talked about the
trade wars between the US and Japan. They kept US
towels out of Japan by saying that the cotton fibers were too thick for the Japanese ear canal or something like that. Like it can get.
Speaker 2: Into ridiculous American skis out because they said Japanese snow was different. They prevented American aluminum bats from going in
because they said that they weren't safe. The only thing
that they allowed with no problem whatsoever was American cigarettes, true story, but they kept everything else out.
Speaker 5: Remember the trouble Saturn had in Japan. Remember that whole
saga which one Saturn. Oh yeah, it was a nightmare.
So yeah, and the Japanese did it. And it wasn't
even you didn't even have you know, dangerous foreign adversary kind of stuff going on. It was just protectionism.
Speaker 3: So Jeff, you guys found that sales globally are not as robust as perhaps you thought they would be.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just not just not the US.
Speaker 6: So we are seeing Western Europe cool. Western Europe has
has the same issues that we do. Definitely, pricing pricing
issues is the is the big one. Affordability and prices
are just not coming down and consumers are responding by not buying vehicles. So, you know, similar to what we're
seeing in the US, but we're seeing that happen definitely across Western Europe.
Speaker 4: You know, you've got.
Speaker 6: Russia coming back from nothing last year because of the war in Ukraine, so there's some lift there. You have
Japan and Korea didn't suffer as much from the chip shortage, so they're having hard You're over your comparisons, so they're not doing great China, you know, is the price war cooling.
You've got some that have backed out, so there's there's some issues there as well, although the last couple of months have been okay, kind of where we expected it.
So yeah, there's kind of a mixed picture really around the world. We've taken out two two and a half
million units since the beginning of the year out of the global picture.
Speaker 5: So there's come on, does an even come out out of China a little bit?
Speaker 4: Has not much.
Speaker 6: Most it's come out of Western Europe and a little bit out of the US as well.
Speaker 5: So where do you.
Speaker 3: Guys see the global star being at the end?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so the end of the year right now, we're under eighty nine million, so we were we were expecting to push that ninety million, you know, everything's fine zone, and it doesn't look like we're going to get there this year. So we're at eighty eighty eight point seven
to be precise, I guess.
Speaker 2: And we also saw the aca EA, you know, the the European Organization today say July EV sales took a nose dive, mainly because of Germany. Some other markets were up.
I think the Netherlands, Belgium, France were okay, but Man EV sales fell off a cliff in Germany well, and that's.
Speaker 6: The sub story to all of this as well, is again because of pricing issues and concerns with a slower EV transition with consumers. You have that affecting markets, not
just Western Europe, but we saw a little bit of it in China as well. But as those consumers don't
buy them, they don't have the the ice choices that we have to the same level, I should say that we haven't in the US to counter it. So it's
definitely pulling the whole market down to some extent Western Europe.
Speaker 5: Yes, what happened to evs in Germany? Then why the
big fall off?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was a it was a big, big.
Speaker 2: Number, partly government uh, rebates or sales all the sentis right.
The bunny dried up, right, So but that happened at the beginning of the year. It did.
Speaker 3: It was in December of last year that they just put the kaibosh on it.
Speaker 5: I mean they just there's some sort of grandfather in though or something like that.
Speaker 6: No, they just cut it off now, so some of it again it's base effects you've got last year. Last
year things were going pretty strongly, so it's it's tough when you do those those year of year.
Speaker 3: So what I thought was interesting about the ac A CEA numbers which you're referring to, is so from January to July this is passenger car registrations, eves had twelve point five percent of the whole market. Diesels had twelve
point eight percent of.
Speaker 2: The Oh my gosh, wow. Yeah, because it was a
point where Europe was bumping up around twenty percent market share, right, eighteen twenty percent, so that's a big drop.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Yeah, we had pulled we've pulled down BEVs in Europe from a share standpoint this year. We had at
the beginning of the year. I think we're right around
sixteen little under sixteen percent, and we've we've cut about two percent out of that and it could could end up being weaker.
Speaker 2: Actually, and PEVs are not doing well either, they are not in Europe.
Speaker 6: Part of it availability, but it's just yeah, it's not a technology that that necessarily has has worked like it is here or like it is in China.
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, hybrids just regular orl hybrids, strong hybrids, but off to the races. I mean they were up like twenty
five percent or something like that. So wow.
Speaker 5: You know people who are still kind of leery of plug in hybrids because it has a plug and somebody tell me this recently that they didn't want to But when you run out of juice, you're still driving around on the gas. That's okay. So there's just the industry
has done, honestly, I think, really an adequate job of explaining to people how they can charge their vehicles. Whether
it's pure battery electrics or plug ins, it can be done.
I mean you can take road trips in that sort of thing. People are just like.
Speaker 6: I think there's a general confusion on all the terminalities that we're using on a on a everyday basis.
Speaker 5: And now they want to add e REV to this whole thing, which, yeah, I'm sorry that that term shouldn't exist, and.
Speaker 2: I'm really bullosh on it.
Speaker 5: I am too. What I'm saying is that the term
it's a plug in hybrid, consumers don't care when the engine's running. When it's not running, they don't care. They
just want to They just tell them they're getting more mileage and tell them they're getting longer range. It's all
they care about. I mean, you can go this. I
remember remember when the Chevy volt and it was discovered, the first generation. Occasionally, if you were really laying on
the accelerator, I think actually the gasoline engine gave it a little bit of boost. It wasn't just charging. It
was so scandalous. Look, we wrote about it, like everybody
else did. I remember thinking like they kind of driving
the car does not care right, like he's he's getting you know, was it fifty two or sixty miles per gallon whatever it was rated at, and you could drive x amount of range. He never had to worry about,
you know, running out of a battery. And that's all
consumers care about. And there are mild hybrids and there
are strong plug in hybrids. And now we got you red.
No one's gonna understand what This is a classic example of the industry like sort of too many people in the industry talking to each other and not really understanding like how to just simply explain.
Speaker 2: I don't because I've tried to explain plug in hybrids to people and they go, you meaning you got to plug it in. I go, yeah, but it's got a
gasoline engine. I mean, I can fill it up with gas. Yeah,
but you can plug it in too. Well, you just
said it had a gasoline engine. I mean, the public
just doesn't They don't get it.
Speaker 3: Isn't part of it that the industry at large really had no reason to educate people about plug in hybrids because there really weren't that many plug in hybrids. You know,
when when Chrysler came out with the pacifica plug in hybrid, they said, no, we'll just call it a hybrid because we'll confuse people otherwise, right, So they didn't say, we'll call this the again hybrid, and we will explain to people what that means.
Speaker 5: Yeah. And I'd love to notice how many plug and
hybrid owners actually have a home charger because you don't need it. And I'm in the process of what.
Speaker 2: You're saying is you can use it one to ten.
Speaker 5: I was using one ten sure, and which once you run out of juice with the plug in hybrid, your mileage isn't that great often so and with a one ten takes forever to charge it, even though it's a smaller battery. So I wonder how many people actually go
out and get it, and if they're frequently just driving around with no battery.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, this is the complaint of many environmentalists and to agree even the EPA that they don't want to give automakers full ZEV credits for these vehicles because they're afraid they're not going to get plugged in, they're going to be running on gasoline. But I got to
believe if you've got this thing, you went to the dealer, dealer explained it to you, and you bought this thing, you might be tempted to plug it in and see what's going to happen. It's all what it's about. Yeah,
because you know.
Speaker 5: You crazy range duty side, you never go.
Speaker 2: To a gas station. You pretty much drive on electricity
all the time unless you want to do a long trip.
Speaker 3: But you know, John, you were mentioning about, you know, hybrid sales being up. So those European numbers were hybrid
sales were up twenty five point seven percent. Well evs
were down ten point eight percent, and plugins were down fourteen point one percent. Yeah, I mean, so you look
at that delta, I mean it's it's that's massive, it's a huge thing. So so the question becomes, you know
why the love for hybrids versus apparently no love for plug in hybrids.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, because it's easy to understand. You don't
have to plug it in, there's no range anxiety, there's no charging time. It's more of them, right, and they
get terrific fuel economy, and in markets, especially like Europe, where gasoline is typically seven dollars a gallon or thereabouts if you're getting forty five fifty miles to the gallon. Yaoza. Now,
having said that, they've had diesels that got that kind of fuel economy, and in many markets in Europe, diesels cheaper than gasoline, so they've had to fight that. But uh,
for whatever reason, the European public and even the American public has gone, WOWSA, this hybrid stuff's pretty good.
Speaker 3: So, Jeff, why why do you think that the domestic manufacturers have not been strong hybrid producers over the last few years.
Speaker 6: I mean, it's a it's a cost issue to a degree.
It's a whered you put your eggs, you know, your investment, your your basket that only goes so far, and where's what's the future look like?
Speaker 4: And I think it's.
Speaker 6: Making a instead of taking a basket approach to the technology, it's going all in on one version of it. And
that was most of the world. Europe and North America
did that. It's really the Japanese that held back. And
part of that is they're just conservative approach to these big trend decisions, and it right now is benefiting them.
And now you've got the pivot where everyone is re looking at hybrid technology and trying to better what they haven't get launches out.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think, look the US car companies, there's a lot pushing them toward pure electrics. One is the regulatory
landscape is Two is Wall Street right, Tesla had this great valuation startups, even those without a product, we're getting funded.
And then some of the let's call better startups who are still struggling, Lucid and Rivian had great valuations as well.
So Wall Street's rewarding companies for going all electric. And look,
Tesla's called sales growth was great and they're a profitable company.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 5: I think what could be like the biggest head fake in the industry's history if this EV thing really does kind of stall out for a long time, is Tesla had all this great growth and everyone thought, Okay, the world's turned people want evs. It turns out that a
certain kind of luxury buyer wants evs, and the rest of American consumers are kind of scratching their heads over it. Look,
there's still EV growth, you know. I think we as
media need to like really get a good handle on what's going on in the market. Which is it's growing,
which is we've hit the flat part of the S curve.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just not it's just not where expectations.
Speaker 2: Well, the big problem is the automaker is over invested to the points that you were making. They thought the
market had swung. They looked at Tesla, Wall Street was
pushing them, and they went that way. They went too far.
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's been delays or been cancelations, but there's still a lot of models coming that are going to fight for a smaller piece than they would have right or what they expected.
Speaker 2: But I've always said, or I've been saying for years on this show, I expect around twenty twenty seven ish timeframe is when the EV segment will really start to grow.
We'll have second generation platforms, second generation batteries, There's going to be plenty of public charging by that time. That's
what that's key.
Speaker 4: Oh, that's key.
Speaker 6: Infrastructure is right now a massive roadblock for a lot of consumers.
Speaker 2: That want to They don't want to wait.
Speaker 6: I mean we're all impatient with everything right As a consumer, you don't want to wait for things, and they're used to filling their tank up and that's it. So if
you can get over that issue and at least bring the charge time down, bring the convenience factor up where you don't have to plot your trip around charging stations that take you out of your way, that'll go a long way for I think getting shared and getting more consumers on board.
Speaker 2: So here's another one, you know we reported this week.
Auto Forecast says there's going to be an electric Stingray corvette built in Lancing Grand River, not in Bowling Green, and it's going to be presumably on the Ultium platform.
Is that going to fly with corvette buyers, David.
Speaker 5: Uh, It could. It could also bring in a new
kind of corvette buyer. With the traditional corvette buyer, I
think they'll have some kind of an aversion to it because they like the sound of an engine that which, look, you can you can make that up right, But do they think it's the real thing. And look, that's an
older crowd, and you know, they kind of like the old gasoline noise and feel, and so they may still want that. It could bring in a new kind of
buyer though for the old crowd, that vehicle is going to handle a lot differently and are they going to like that? I think that could do pretty well. Actually,
what there's a market for it? Yeah?
Speaker 4: I think so.
Speaker 6: Obviously depends on ultimately on how well it does on its styling.
Speaker 4: It should it should.
Speaker 2: Performance, should performance the price. But but yeah, they'll be
a market. Another thing, supposedly according to Auto Forecast again
is that there's going to be a D segment suv Corvette brand also coming out at the same place.
Speaker 5: But I had a story on this like three years ago.
Speaker 4: It's been in and out of the ra mill.
Speaker 5: Within so within the Corvette design studio Chevy. I think
it's the Chevy Design studio where they do it. They
had a few different concepts. They had an electric corvette.
These are all electric vehicles, by the way. They had
one that was sort of like a you know, imagine like a Lamborghini Urus sort of configuration, right, uh. And
they did have like some kind of like call it a sedan, but you know, really like a horsesh it takend sort of execution. Like they had a few different
concepts like this, but they were looking at sort of a Corvette family and sub brand and to kind of I mean, look, look how much Ferrari's worth, right, So there they were. They've they've talked to talked about coming
up with a Corvette sub brand. That's a few different
configuration of vehicles, so like D segment suv that that I hadn't at the time I reported. It was several
years ago. Actually I remember when it was. It was right
around the whole January sixth thing because I had the story done that day and then that just sucked up the zone for you know, media coverage. But there was
like a sedan and like an suv ish sort of thing going on. I look, I think they're going to
expand that line. Yeah, what do you think?
Speaker 3: So the first the first half, there were eighteen thousand Corvettes sold in the United States. Okay, not a big number, right,
So so anything they can add to that is going to be gravy for them. So let's say they come
out with a full electric I think every one of those that they build will be purchased that people just want here because the people who buy Corvettes want to buy corvettes.
Speaker 2: I think they buy it because it is a.
Speaker 3: Corvette, not because it's electric vehicle, not because it's a you know, like the E Ray, which is gets like zero attention hybrid, you know, wonderful to drive, as you know.
And so if Porsche could extend its showroom to what it has, why shouldn't Corvette do that?
Speaker 5: And Bentley has Lamborghini a lot of them, they'll sell everyone.
Speaker 6: I mean, it's just I mean, I guess in that sense you think of it as a brand and not a not a badge, right.
Speaker 5: I mean, look, I saw that, you know, and I know that the Bentley bentegue has been out for a long time. I finally someone on the road around here
for the first time ever and it was coming up behind me and I saw in the rearview mirror, and honestly, it looked like an English delivery van. Like but if
you made a delivery van out of like a London cab, that's what it looks like. Yeah. Yeah, and it's you know,
look it's about it, like you take that Bentley design language and put it on an ash. It's about as
awkward as you can get. But you know, Portion made
it work with its SUVs, and Ferrari's extended the line.
I mean, it's a lot, it's a big line of sports cars, but uh, you know lamb I mean, look, the Lamborghini yours pretty good execution of taking a sports car into like a crossover kind of thing, and it's a little cheaper relative Lambeau line, and I think they've had pretty good success with that in terms of selling it.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I look, we've talked on the show for
years about why aren't they expanding the Corvette line. They're
sitting on a gold mine. To your point, David, look
at Ferrari's valuation. I mean, I'm not saying that Corvette
could hit that, but that's you know, that's the guide lamp right there of.
Speaker 5: Where to get They can make some money there.
Speaker 6: Iconic brand.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I don't think it's quite Ferrari exclusivity though, I mean, and.
Speaker 5: Look, I mean, look, another part of Ferrari's money making ability too is someone told me this recently that it's Formula one team is the only one that makes money with the sponsorships. And all that the others break even
or lose.
Speaker 2: Mo that's entirely possible. That's entirely possible. You know, it's
hard to break out with the Formula one budget is from Ferrari's finances.
Speaker 5: But there was I was told the racing program itself makes money, and that a lot of the others, most of the others do not, particularly in Formula One, and it's more about marketing for the auto companies that run.
Speaker 2: That's that's true of all racing, not just Formula One. Hey, look,
we got to take a quick break right now. Give
a shout out to our great sponsor, Bridgestone. We'll be
back in just to.
Speaker 7: Say, keeping your heart racing in and out of the gym, that's what really matters. Bridge don't pretends to sport as
tires with the fifty thousand mile limited warranty.
Speaker 2: All Right, we're back Garry. I know you already always
have a good list of things to get into. What's
on your list there?
Speaker 5: All right?
Speaker 3: So you know, one of the things we've been talking about on the show for the past few episodes is this whole notion of whether traditional OEMs can have the quickness and responsiveness that they need to be competitive in today's environment.
Speaker 5: And so I.
Speaker 3: Saw this quote that came out from General Motors while hearing in.
Speaker 5: All about this quote.
Speaker 3: Breightdrop was born in GM's innovation lab and spent the last three years as a wholly owned subsidiary. That structure
allowed bright Drop to operate with the agility and innovation of a tech startup and benefit from GM's deep manufacturing expertise.
So what has General Motors announced it's going to do with bright Drop?
Speaker 5: Full it into chev Look, you know, I didn't write this.
I didn't even say it on TV anywhere. I told
someone in General Motors public relations, someone who's been out of the company for three years now, so it's got to be four years ago, said they're just going to fold it into Chevy at some point because the Chevy brand and the dealers are going to say, wait a minute, you're selling commercial vehicles. That's our job. And by the way,
the Chevy dealers have relationships with fleet buyers, they have facilities to repair the stuff. Like, why would you in
essence create this commercial saturn to go and sell electric vans?
I mean, I get in some ways why they wanted to brand it separately. And all of that. But you know,
the numbers they're selling isn't that big.
Speaker 8: Large enough, Like the commercial van business isn't that big to stand on its own. It was what a couple
hundred thousand units a year total, so and incubated and then release it back to the brand.
Speaker 5: But so if it's a couple of hundred thousand units your total commercial van, that's not just electric, that's all of them, right, yeah, and the electric portions maybe ten percent, probably less, I think less. Yeah, yeah, So it's not
a lot of volume between fordh Rivian, GM. What else is.
Speaker 2: Mercedes through a ram is Well, they don't have vans per se, but they're in the commercial business there.
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm telling about who's selling electric fans right now.
Ford and GM are and then like Rivian does those vans for I just passed around the way here for Amazon.
So and it's just not that big a business. I mean,
it will grow, I think, but it's just not that big, right.
Speaker 3: So in October twenty twenty one, General Motors said that bright Drops revenue would top ten billion dollars by twenty thirty with low twenty percent profit margins.
Speaker 2: Let's go back to the drawing board on that, because that's not going to happen, as we've just discussed here. No, look,
I think it was probably smart to have a bright Drop separate to developed the van. I think so because
you can go much faster than the legacy operation would be able to. But I think to your point, David,
all the commercial connections at the retail end of the is in Chevrolet. Once you've launched, it just makes more
sense to do it that way.
Speaker 3: Okay, But what happens to this this culture of innovation and agility? I mean, I you know, speaking of Saturn,
they brought that back in and it didn't last long, did it? I mean, knew me were the lessons from
new me nowhere?
Speaker 5: Braytrup did develop some software to help fleet managers manage the fleet and so forth, and maybe that helped them, But I mean what they what did they developed that was like startup speed and all this sort of thing.
And you know, and as far as what the twenty or thirty billion series, there's not a lot in that GM investor presentation from three or four years ago that I said this in my book that they weren't going to hit that double the revenue thing. I mean, Cruise
is not going to get the fifty billion in revenue anytime that we can foresee, because I don't think anyone else will leader. It's not just Cruise. Robotaxi's just not
it takes. It's just taking.
Speaker 6: Happening outside of geofenced areas.
Speaker 5: I mean, look, there's some good stuff going on with Robotaxi, but fifty billion, and then by the end of the decade, I don't see happening doubling. You know, their sales, you know,
a large chunk with electric vehicles because they have a bigger waterfront of vehicles they do. Actually, by the end
of twenty twenty five in the US, GM is going to have you know, from bolt On up to Hummers and escalades a pretty good waterfront of vehicles covered. But
the market's not getting there that quickly yet. And then
the software services and bright Drop revenue like all of this stuff, I just you know, it's it's so little right now and there's not a lot of momentum. I
don't see how they get there. They can find growth
in all of these businesses, it's just not going to be these big numbers that we're thrown out there.
Speaker 3: So Jeff, want to hear your thoughts here about robotaxis.
I mean you've seem somewhat should we say, skeptical.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I mean I think there's good reason to be.
They've been promised for a while by different parties who can.
Speaker 4: Be named or remain nameless.
Speaker 6: But yeah, obviously they've made some headway, and I think it depends where you are and where you go. Obviously
San Francisco's a different environment than Detroit in that certainly, but I think they have a place they will serve a purpose. But just kind of turning them loose and
widespread robotaxis in the next several years, I think just not going to happen. I think, just reality, it's a
lot harder to get to that stage than to the stage we're at right now. And they you know, we
continue to see advancements. Obviously AI is going to help
with that development, speeding up the development, but it's just not there yet. And I think then then you've got
to convince consumers once the technology is there or close, and I just don't think we're going to see it anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Well, you're mentioning before about how the traditionals invested mainly in evs in right, you know, four four went hybrids.
General Motor certainly is spending some good coin on autonomous technology.
Is is it going to get to the point where they're going to say, we're spreading this too thin.
Speaker 6: Well, I think that's a risk, and I think this is this is the other great pivot that we saw in recent months or years, and that is, you know, the industry went from okay, instead of going from where we are today with autonomous driving technology, we're going to skip all the you know, all the levels and we're going to go right to five. Let's not worry about
anything else.
Speaker 4: We'll have develop five.
Speaker 6: And obviously that became more of a task than I think most thought, certainly those on the West Coast thought.
Speaker 4: And now it's let's go back because we.
Speaker 6: Can make money in level two and three by adding some of this content and getting consumers to pay for it.
Speaker 4: And now now you're kind of marrying.
Speaker 6: That issue with the EV issue, with the pricing issue in the regular market, and all of those are kind of spinning around the consumer. And I think that's another
piece of why we're seeing delays in a lot of this is it's just it's an afford It all does come down on an affordability issue.
Speaker 5: Well, also, there's still a safety issue, and it's not that they aren't safe, but crews had their problems. Waymos
had problems too, right, you know they hit a cyclist recently.
They weren't seriously injured, but you know, when these things happen, everybody takes stops. I think it's a few people will
argue that weaimo against WAMO having the best robotaxi technology out there right.
Speaker 2: In the United States. Yeah, you know, meanwhile, a lot
more going on, I.
Speaker 5: Think, yeah, But you like, the New York Times did a story that like that that the Chinese government suppresses negative stories about about robotex or negative news about robotaxis because they want to develop the technology. So there isn't
you don't get you know, when a cyclist gets hit or a fire truck gets hit, you don't have this huge furre over it in China like you do here.
Wabo is moving pretty cautiously given given that they've been working on this technology for fourteen or fifteen years. That
tells me something. I'm not saying it's not ready clearly.
I mean, they're operating it, but it's not in big numbers.
They are adding some production that that came out this week, but it's still small amounts of production and they're moving cautiously, which is probably smart, but that just tells you it's not going to be a huge business. There is interesting
stuffind of like.
Speaker 2: A huge business the Steck yet, right.
Speaker 5: Look, I don't know when it's going to be, but it's still years away before it's a huge business. But
you know there's money going into it. I mean, GM
is still funding crews, you know, look at you know mobility.
He's getting funded by Toyota and uh, and they're doing some interesting stuff. Now there's this extremely geo friends, it's
actually set routes. So they're they're going a much more
simple solution than the others are, which I think is pretty smart too.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 5: You know, like Edwin Olson years ago, he runs main mobility.
Uh you know we're talking about this and and you know his theory on technology is basically like Amazon didn't start off selling US everything. They started off selling US
books and music, you know, and then they were in supply chain, they were in consumer uh you know, electronic payment and all these things, and then they just kept growing it and growing it and now they sell us everything.
And he looked at autonomy that way, like you know, you gotta figure out, you know, some basic driving and then and keep going.
Speaker 3: So speaking of autonomous vehicles, this is this is one part of Hyundai had a big investor day yesterday, and this is Hyundai Global, and they announced that they're targeting five point five to five million annual global sales by twenty thirty, which is up thirty percent from twenty twenty three.
They aim to sell two million evs per year globally by twenty thirty, which is roughly thirty six percent of all.
Speaker 2: Of their sales will be evs.
Speaker 3: They're gonna introduce and you'll like this, new E REV models, so they'll have it all.
Speaker 5: They're going they're gonna launch North hybrids, that's right.
Speaker 2: Excuse me.
Speaker 3: They're gonna have twenty one EV models by twenty thirty, ranging from affordable to luxury and high performance. And they'll
expand their EV offerings to fourteen models from a current seven.
And I did the math on their hybrid sales and they're looking to basically about a third of their sales will be hybrids by by twenty thirty.
Speaker 4: They're going to manufact they're there.
Speaker 3: This is the weirdest thing in the world. The Hondai
Motor Group Meta Plant America, which is in Georgia, and they were it was going to be an all ev plant and they're going to build the they're building the Ionic five there, they're going to build the Ionic nine there, and they're going to build hybrids there now, so they've decided they're going to do that.
Speaker 2: So are they going to be e Rev hybrids? Yeah,
that one too.
Speaker 4: They okay, they will.
Speaker 3: They will begin mass production of the new e Rev in North America and China by the end of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: Okay, So whether they're going to make it at.
Speaker 3: The metaplant though, that's not clear.
Speaker 2: I bet they will because they only have one other plant here. And yeah, that's all that makes ri right.
Speaker 3: You don't know, there could be very clever and they could just build a plant like that.
Speaker 2: But this this is interesting.
Speaker 3: You know, you guys talking about automus vehicles and I'd never heard this term before. You guys can educate me
in this. It says Hyundai Motor plans to launch a
foundry business that will sell autonomous vehicles to various global autonomous driving software technology companies ventual leverage the company's hardware development capabilities and manufacturing competitiveness. So it sounded to me
like basically they're going to build like they're going.
Speaker 5: To build the car for these other developers to integrate software into it. Sounds like they're gonna build hicles for
WAIMO is what it means. Yeah, could be and you know,
could be anyone else, name mobility, other startups that want to do this. Maybe even some delivery type you know,
middle middle mile, last mile type stuff. Probably more like
last mile, I would think. So here's a question for
you guys.
Speaker 3: Okay, do you think that these predictions that they're making are more realistic than those predictions we heard from General Motors in twenty twenty one about Bright Trot.
Speaker 5: Well, they are because we already know that the Bright Trot predictions are.
Speaker 6: They've still got a shot at it, because it's not to that time to do a pretty good job.
Speaker 5: We're going to do GM. I mean that's why Still
I was working on the book. My last interview with
Mary Barr for this, I said, look, Mary, I said, these this whole doubling of revenue, all these things, It was the most unmarry thing I've ever seen, because GM always hits its financial guidance, and you know, up until you know that that pretty bold plan. You know, her
credibility was pretty ironclad when they said they're going to do something, vehicle launches being on certain times they did it.
All these technology things are really difficult to do, especially for a company that's been doing the same thing for one hundred years I call the established car companies have So you know, Hyundai does have the benefit that they're doing this now when we know what the autonomous and electric vehicle world's kind of we have a better view anyway of what they look like, still unclear where they're going to go, but a better view of where they're going to go. So it's a little more realistic from
that best that.
Speaker 2: Is, let me finish my thought on that. Hyundai tends
to hit what it says it's going to do. But
this thirty percent increase in sales by the end of the decade by one, Jeff, is the global market going to grow thirty percent by I can guarantee you not. Okay,
there you go, number one.
Speaker 4: So they're going to take share.
Speaker 2: So the market's not going to go to take sure they're getting their clocks.
Speaker 5: It's going to grow.
Speaker 2: Hondai is getting its clock cleaned in China.
Speaker 5: Worse than GM and worse than the folks West.
Speaker 2: Yes, and it started before those guys. Number two is
the Chinese are steamrolling through Southeast Asia. To the degree
that Hyundai Kiya play any role in those markets, they're going to get their clocks cleaned. And some are the
Japanese Japanized, it's most of the Japanese. So is honey
going to get thirty percent growth in the other markets of the world. The only major ones are Europe and
the United States. I don't see that happening. Not not
enough to go global number So some of that's going to be global growth obviously. So the thirty percent thing
were highly skeptical they'll hit.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I think it's aggressive.
Speaker 5: I think.
Speaker 4: I mean they have had they've had strong success.
Speaker 6: I think with what they've done, and they've taken a good approach looking across different technologies. They're their vehicles and
their footprint from lower costs all the way up the spectrum.
Speaker 4: Have done fairly well.
Speaker 6: With consumers here and in Europe, I would say very well.
I think, yeah, I think they have a strong base.
But then to continue that growth on top of what they've done already, I think is gonna be really challenging.
Speaker 3: Yeah, is it possible that they could address markets that are underserved? I mean, I think for example of India,
which I think is going to be the next place that people start looking at more and more.
Speaker 6: And talked about a lot many many.
Speaker 5: Years or a lot of issues to adding more cars there though the roads and infrastructure.
Speaker 6: Are still bad and there's still congestion.
Speaker 5: Is so, I mean, it's already terrible there. Do they
really want more cars or did they need like a serious investment in public transit.
Speaker 6: And to see the middle class grow, that's the other it's growing.
Speaker 2: Right. But having said all those those negatives about India,
there's it's getting a lot of attention. It is because
to Gary's point, a lot of people believe the potential there can be massive.
Speaker 6: Potential is massive, it's just will it become reality?
Speaker 7: Well?
Speaker 2: Remember why time frame?
Speaker 5: Right?
Speaker 3: Well, you know you talk about we talked about it for a long time. I mean we used to talk
about brick, right, and somehow that eye just didn't just went straight to the sea, right.
Speaker 6: Oh, and Brazil never really did it either, right, and Russia wants maybe the sea got separated from the rest.
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, now the sea is politically difficult, and.
Speaker 2: And the r is just buying cars from China exactly Here here's a question. We saw this week that teslaug
had a federal court reinstate a lawsuit it had filed essentially against the State of Louisiana and its motor vehicle and dealer group. Uh. I guess it must have been
a state court had dismissed Tesla's suit, suing because it's banned from selling direct to consumers. A federal court said no, no,
you can sue them. Where's this go? I've often wondered,
why doesn't Tesla push this all the way to the Supreme Court? In my opinion, that's pretty early. What this
is all these states limiting and banning or constraining Tesla is constraint of interstate trade. I learned in high school
that was illegal. David, what do you think?
Speaker 5: I think if they push it, they'd have a pretty good case. Just I mean, look, my understanding is I
remember reading this might have been in an opinion from the Commerce Department that the state franchise laws were meant to protect franchise dealers from company stores, so the company that's correct. So if that was the original intent and
that's why they're there, and Tesla doesn't have any independent dealers, the franchise law, it's not protecting anyone from Tesla selling direct to concerns. And also all theoretically all Tesla would
have to do to obey state laws minus the French if the franchise law has gone is just make sure you're doing whatever the DMV and the registrars want with and and and in your baying vehicle loan regulations. Why
shouldn't they be So if that's the intent, you know, going in there with that Commerce Department opinion is you know, that's that's that's a pretty strong opinion to have on your side. Now, look, they haven't taken it this far,
and we have to wonder why did their attorney's find some reason why that's not gonna happen for them. But
I think they'd have a I think it'd be a it would be a really interesting fight to watch.
Speaker 2: I heard one theory that maybe Elon didn't want to push this because if Tesla gets makes it legal, through a Supreme Court decision that you can sell direct to consumers, every one's going to pile in and then Tesla would not have a competitive advantage. But you know, that thinking
might have been true if it was ever when Tesla was growing at fifty percent a year. They're not growing.
In fact, they're sales in the US have stagnated. Right now.
They need to open more markets. I mean they're hamstrung
in the US. They need to open up opportunity. So
maybe now's the time to push this all the way to the Supreme Court.
Speaker 5: Yes, I mean, why don't they want to own retail stores.
I mean it's a lot more capital and it's a lot more employees for a business that's already really capital intensive, you know. I mean having a bunch of leases or locations,
brick and hardware on your books. I mean it does
give you control. You keep all the retail profits. I
mean they're pros and constant to having franchise dealer network versus running it yourself. I think if you're the size
of Rivian, you want to own it and can control yourself.
The bigger you get, the tougher it is.
Speaker 4: More challenging, right to control it.
Speaker 5: Now it's also tough to control dealers. But you know,
the dealer franchise system, for all the heat it gets, the markup isn't that big. That's what I tell when
people ask me, like, oh, you know, I'm trying to negotiate my car deal I'm like, you know, unless you're buying an eighty thousand dollars car, Like, the difference between invoice and MSRP isn't that. You're not fighting over that
much money. And you got to remember, out of that
markup that's the dealer has to play. The commission plus
the lights and the heat, air conditioning and everything else.
It's not a lot of money. They don't make much
money in the new car show room.
Speaker 2: No, the big problem with franchise dealers is you got all that inventory just sitting there appreciating and what you're paying for. And if now having.
Speaker 5: That, is that going to go away with company owned stores, Well, I mean theoretically it could, but it's not.
Speaker 3: It isn't an issue if okay, So, if Tesla has its own stores, okay, I've got to believe there is a percentage of people who feel more comfortable in purchasing a vehicle from someone that they're sitting across from and talking to and they're not reaching those people now, right.
So to your point of opening new markets, well, this opens a whole new demographic to them that they're not touching right now by not having stores.
Speaker 2: Look in Michigan, because every state's different. So the way
that Michigan has put the you know, the shackles on Tesla is you can legally buy a Tesla in the state of Michigan, but you have to go outside of the state to get the car titled. Then you have
to bring it back into the state and get a Michigan title. And so that's friction in the system. If
you remove that and make the sales a whole lot easier.
I don't think that Tesla is necessarily necessarily looking to put dealers all over in every community. They just want
to put more distribution points. So you go online, you
have this fantastic buying experience, You go through what eight or ten screens, boom, boom boom, the car is yours, you go get it.
Speaker 5: But they sell more vehicles, I mean, you know, they do have. I think there's one at Summerset where you
can go and look at Tesla. Yeah, it's just a showroom. Sure,
it's a display area. So but if they had more
sales points and people can go check out the cars.
Speaker 2: Point is your phone, your sales points, your laptop.
Speaker 5: But to Gary's point, would they sell more cars if they had more locations where people could walk into some kind of doesn't that be a franchise dealer? They could
walk into a showroom? Yes, car now, arguably because their
interiors are so spartan and awful compared to like the other luxury brands house simplicity, if people sat in them would be less likely to buy than just looking at it online. I'm kind of sarcastic here, but you know,
I've talked to people who looked at Tesla's and they're used to buying lucky driving luxury cars and like the interneor is not that nice. I'm like, yeah, that's not
what you're getting. Like you're getting the huge touch screen
and like their impertainment system and all that is and the over the air updates, Like yeah, they're ahead of everybody technologically on that you're getting in the same way.
I mean, like an iPhone and an eye watch is not a a an artistic piece of design, but it's a great piece of HMI in first rate technology and Tesla's like that, right, Like they're on top of the technology game and that's what people are paying a lot of money for.
Speaker 2: Well, personally, I hope they take this to the Supreme Court.
To your point, David, that's going to be a hell of battle or watch if it happened. I have your
popcorn right.
Speaker 3: I wonder if they even need to get that far though, because it used to be that movie studios couldn't own theaters and that has changed, which seems to go to your point of why there would be protection for independent retailers versus come but the stores. So basically, you know,
you think, uh, you know, paramount theater is showing paramount movies.
Speaker 5: You know, look, this would probably go to the Supreme Court because you know, once it starts to win beyond Louisiana and goes into federal courts, then I think NA d A and you know, the deer groups they're going to.
Speaker 6: Want to they pile in, they're going to step in.
Speaker 5: And you know they're going to fight this thing tooth and nail, and it would probably end up in the Supreme Court.
Speaker 9: Right, may not start, but yeah, So as we're wrapping up here, Jeff, do you see anything on the horizon that may increase auto sales besides Tesla having dealerships.
Speaker 6: You know, I still think there is there is demand that it hasn't been satisfied from the pandemic. You know,
we talked about affordability. Will we see those buyers come
back in.
Speaker 4: That's still a big question.
Speaker 6: I think the near term it feels like there's more downside pressure or at least market leveling off at where we're at and not continuing to grow. Then there is
growth opportunity. We have marginal growth over the next few years,
but it's starting to top out. So big question, I
guess will be will that consumer that was displaced come back into the new car market over the next few years.
Speaker 4: I think that's something we'll have to wait and see.
Speaker 2: Up to the automakers, it really is, you got to smil killer product that people can afford. If you do
that and everything can solved.
Speaker 6: Oh absolutely, So what's easy, right, what's the likelihood of that happened.
Speaker 2: Across the board? Not at all, but in certain segments. Yeah, absolutely,
we'll see some emerging of We talked about the Maverick or the tracks earlier. They see the success and it's like, wow,
how do we do this again?
Speaker 6: Yeah, or and others will jump on it right, so development times down, it doesn't take as long to catch up.
In theory, it's.
Speaker 5: Got to be a nice vehicle. I mean, I remember
that when they had the event and they showed the tracks.
Former Kyle league and good friend Dave Kylie was there covering it forwards. I was there for Bloomberg and we
walked out of this thing and Dave said to me, you know, I got to give them credit. They like,
they really tried to make this a nice vehicle, even though it starts at like twenty twenty one thousand. I said,
I know, and I said, be interesting to see how it sells. And it is. You know, you give people
a vehicle that isn't just you know, bare bones. You
give them something, you know, some good content and value at a price that most households can afford. It'll sell it.
Look at that it actually was. Yeah, I mean, styling
a subjective. But you know the trail boyzer too, that
that transacts in the twenty range twenty five range. You know,
they've had pretty good success with that, you know, hun Day and Q do very well down there, and they offer a lot of value in those price points. There's
there's money to be made if somebody wants to go down into those segments.
Speaker 2: You know, this is an incredib aly complicated industry, but on another level, it's pretty simple. You know, just do
good stuff and price it right and everything and price it right. That's it, really good. Well, with that, we're
going to wrap it up. Jeff, so good to have
you back in. Great to be here, back in the
back in the David, always good to have you on the show. Gary, always great to be with you, dude.
Next week. Thanks people for having tuned in.
Speaker 1: I'll dontline. After Hours is brought to you by bridge
Stone Tires Solutions for your Journey
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