DAILY: Tesla’s European Decline, U.S. Rolls Back Economy Targets and Germany Nears 2 Million EVs

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Welcome back to the podcast today.

Tesla's European decline, US rolls back economy targets,

and Germany nears 2 million EVs.

Plus stay tuned.

Later in the show, I'll tell you why paper mile charges

would still make EVs cheaper than combustion.

On EV News China today, check it out in your feed.

We do it weekdays and we take a look what's happening

in the world's biggest EV market.

And we decode what's happening in the east for the rest of us.

And it's hopefully going down pretty well.

People seem to like EV News China as a spin-off show,

not putting all the China news in this main podcast.

But also it's interesting how every so often you see people,

sometimes pretty senior in the automotive ecosystem,

saying, whoa, did you know what's happening in China?

These are the cars and these are the prices.

And you and I go, yeah, yeah, yeah.

We've known about that for a while.

So hopefully if you have an interest in EVs,

you should have at least a passing interest

in what's happening in China.

And that's what a spin-off show is all about.

Let's get into it.

Tesla's European EV lead is eroding.

Tesla's grip on Europe's EV market loosened again in November

with registrations dropping sharply in several key countries

while China's BYD logged record gains.

Tesla's recent surge in France went into reverse.

In November, the carmaker suffered one of its sharpest

monthly setbacks in Europe.

Industry figures from French automaker group PFA

show new car registrations slipped in November

by just 0.3% from a year earlier.

A mild decline overall.

Tesla, though, was the outlier.

Its registrations in France fell 58% to just 1,591 vehicles.

This drop is not just a bad month.

Since the start of this year,

Tesla's sales in France have fallen by 33%,

while the broader French EV market is flat,

even up in many cases of some carmakers.

Tesla is losing ground in terms of market share

and the country's mix of vehicles is changing.

France is one of Europe's most subsidy-sensitive markets

for EVs.

Changes in purchase incentives,

local production rules and pricing

can quickly reshuffle which brands look attractive to buyers.

A monthly slide of 58% hints at several pressures

at once, tougher competition from European EV makers

and, in some cases, plug-in hybrids,

more hesitant consumers in France,

and a weak lift from Tesla's earlier price cuts.

Tesla's growth in Spain also lost momentum

just as their EV market starts to mature

and you could say catch up to some other European countries.

New registration data from the Group ANFAC

show that Tesla registered, again,

just 1,523 vehicles in Spain in November,

down 9% from the same month last year.

It delivered fewer cars,

even as Spaniards opted for more EVs.

Over the first 11 months of the year,

Tesla has managed growth in France, though.

Registrations between January and November

were up 5% compared to the same 11 months in 2024.

Volumes are higher,

but as a market share, it's going down.

As I say, the EV market is rising in Spain

across the same period.

The ANFAC reports that total sales of EVs in Spain,

that does cover both BEVs and plug-in hybrids,

actually doubled compared to last year.

For a little while, Spain's been,

if not a laggard, if that's too harsher word,

certainly a little behind some other European countries,

but definitely now catching up

and you'd expect Tesla to be

certainly in line with the market,

if not leading the way.

Tesla have good vehicles to sell.

For some reason, Spaniards don't want them.

Sales dropped 60% in Sweden

compared to the same time last year,

and 49% in Denmark.

The Netherlands was down 44%.

Portugal slid 47% in November

compared to the same month last year.

So what's happening?

Well, certainly there's factors at play.

There are pockets of strength.

I told you on the podcast this week,

Norway did really well.

In fact, Tesla, for some reason,

and I've not fully dug into it,

but there could be some local market things at play,

Tesla registrations tripled in Norway.

6,215 cars.

That's an annual record with a month still to go.

Oh, Italy was up as well for Tesla,

although not by much.

On a broader view, Tesla's market share across Europe

is down from January to October,

and that marks the reversal for the brand

whose model Y used to be Europe's most popular vehicle.

Analysts point out fierce competition

from Chinese makers is having a big effect.

And also, many analysts point to

what is an aging Tesla lineup,

but I don't fully buy into that argument.

And I might be wrong, by the way,

but I think if you go and drive the new Model Y,

and ensure it's the same Model Y

that's been out a long time,

but it's a significant refresh

and a much better vehicle than it used to be.

And I think Tesla had done a very good job

of updating their vehicles.

But if you just zoom out and look at what they're called

and look at the shape of them and say,

okay, so you've got a three and a Y.

They don't really sell the S and the X in a lot of countries,

but it's the same cars.

And, well, yeah, but they're always making improvements to them.

So I think there's some nuance there to bear in mind.

Tesla has started to roll out cheaper models as well.

In fact, earlier today,

I got an email from Tesla UK

pointing out that you can now get the Model Y

standard range in the United Kingdom,

as of literally a few hours ago, as of this morning.

And with maybe three and a half thousand pounds down

as deposit, it's 2.99 a month over three years.

So what's that gonna cost you?

What, 14 grand in total?

To have a car for three years?

Yeah, it's still not the cheapest way to go motoring,

but it is a brand new standard range Model Y,

fully updated.

I wouldn't do it.

It's not the way I buy my cars,

but it's the way most people get their cars

and I still think that's a very competitive deal.

Also, that new Model Y standard range

has the lowest insurance group of any Tesla ever sold in the UK.

They definitely need to come with those attractive finance

deals to try and get buyers interested again.

Model Y is down in most markets.

Investors and rivals are now focused on 2026 at Tesla.

How will they do their pricing strategy

and how will they shift more cars?

Okay, let's talk about the White House in the US.

The administration there has proposed a sharp weakening

of fuel economy rules,

undercutting one of the main federal tools

that nudges car makers to go green.

Unveiled on December 3rd this week,

the plan cuts required fleet-wide averages

for the 2031 model year to just 34 MPG.

Well, the Biden era target was 50.4 MPG.

And that's a stretch goal,

but yeah, that is six years away.

That's the 2031 model year.

Smart people at car makers were working on that problem already.

That gap of taking it down from 50.4 MPG to just over 34 MPG

completely eases the pressure on manufacturers

to make their vehicles more efficient.

In other words, use less gas.

In other words, cost Americans less money at the pump.

This rule redraws how vehicles are classified.

Cross-overs and SUVs would count as passenger cars

and some of the biggest SUVs would no longer be called

light trucks, they're just a passenger car.

And that changes how companies calculate their corporate

average fuel economy.

Car standards are tighter than truck standards.

So that shift would actually bring in larger vehicles

to comply with these stricter standards.

At a White House event this week,

lawmakers cast the move as a blow

against environmental regulations.

This White House has largely been elected

on oil money and petrol money.

And so it's kind of obvious that they're going to do everything

they can to wind back environmental rules.

They said that people have been brainwashed,

that this is a green new scam,

and that people were paying too much for a car

that doesn't work as well.

All of the nonsense is being taken out of cars,

said the U.S. presidents.

The proposals build on earlier steps taken by the

Republican-led Congress.

Those include ending federal tax credit for new and used

electric vehicles, revoking California's power to set

their own emissions rules in a state that previously

suffered from exceptionally poor air quality

and tried to do the best it could to clean up its air

for the people that live there.

It also scrapped fuel economy penalties that had

backed up the standards and supported a credit

market favoring companies that made EVs.

Major car makers signaled support.

They also turned up to appear alongside

Donald Trump at the announcements among them.

Ford turned up to offer their full support of Trump,

Stellantis and General Motors.

The head of Toyota recently appeared in a MAGA t-shirt

and a MAGA cap as well, jumping up and down in excitement

at supporting the automaker.

I saw quite a critical opinion piece in the trade

publication Automotive News saying that maybe car

makers like Toyota shouldn't be appearing in MAGA caps

and MAGA tops, but well, you know,

Mr. Toyota can do as he wishes, if you ask me.

Now the measure now goes to the federal register.

There's a 40-day public comment period.

That won't do any difference.

And then they'll be hearing of the NHTSA and the car

makers will be able to make dirtier, more thirsty cars

for Americans, which will cost more at the pump,

but make them more money.

Let's go to Germany, which is on the brink of a landmark

in their switch to EV.

By early October, 1.93 million battery electric cars

were registered in the country according to the

central vehicle register.

That was about 94,000 more than three months earlier.

So that puts Germany on the trajectory to exceed

2 million pure bevs on the road by the end of the year.

Pure electric cars now account for just under 4%

of Germany's 49.6 million strong car fleet.

Hybrids are playing a role with 4.18 million on the road,

including 1.09 million plug-in hybrids.

Conventional engines dominate, of course, 29.5 million

petrol cars and 13.6 million diesel cars are in service.

Progress has been rapid in Germany.

They passed the 1 million mark for bevs three years ago.

The previous federal government set a goal of 15 million

by 2030.

That target is now widely seen as out of reach,

since it would mean that almost all new car

registrations in the next five years would need to

be Norway levels of electric.

From January to October this year, 435,000 new bevs

were registered, giving them an 18.4 share of new vehicles.

Let's talk about Kia slashing EV prices with

$10,000 incentives, Kia launching one of the

boldest EV discount programs in the US.

Cutting prices by as much as a quarter after

losing the federal tax credit, buyers can now

get $10,000 off every Kia, the Nero EV,

the EV6, and the Three Row EV9, hoping to

blunt the impact of the loss of the federal tax

credit, which expired at the end of September.

The cuts reshape Kia's pricing.

The Nero EV, the brand's least expensive electric

model at $41,000 before incentives, now carries

a 24% discount with the new offer.

The EV6 price drops by 23% with a larger

EV9 down by 18%.

Kia is also piling on loan and lease deals.

The EV6 and the EV9 are available on 0% APR

up to 72 months.

That's a very real world discount for buyers.

The EV6 includes $2,500 called a finance bonus,

and the high performance EV6 GT,

the 641 horsepower fire breather, has $16,500

in what they call lease cash.

Advertised leases start at $209 per month

for the Nero EV.

All EV6 and nine models now come with

North American charging standard ports on the

side of them, giving owners access to

21,500 Tesla superchargers natively.

Volkswagen Group is overhauling how its

mass market brands build its cars worldwide

to prepare for the next move into electric vehicles.

Under the future production governance plan,

22 factories that make Volkswagen,

Škoda, Seat and Cooper models will be

organised into new regional clusters.

Each cluster will be run by a chief production

officer in charge of cross brand planning,

model allocation, launches and logistics.

The first test case will be on the Iberian Peninsula.

Iberia sits at the heart of

Volkswagen's entry level strategy.

The ID Polo, Cooper Reval and the other

small battery electric car families

will be built in Monterey, in Spain.

The VW ID Cross and Škoda Epic

compact crossovers will come from Pamplona.

A smaller EV, the ID1, coming in 2027

will be made at VW's Settable Plant

in Portugal, which currently builds the T-Rock.

Volkswagen expects to roll out

more regions next year.

People familiar with the plans

say Europe will be split into

Eastern and Central clusters

with further regions for North and South America.

The shift moves the group away

from strict brand autonomy

towards integrated regional manufacturing

in the EV age.

Let's talk Porsche Cayenne.

They're pitching their electric version

as the EV flagship

as the more capable version

to go off-road than its petrol version, a Cayenne.

Michael Stetzl, Vice President of the Cayenne model line

said that the electric SUV

beats its own benchmarks.

Simulation work at the Weissach Plant in Germany

and desert testing in Dubai

showed it outperformed

the combustion versions of the Cayenne.

Engineers first set out to match

the combustion Cayenne's off-road performance.

But he says the EV turned out

way better than we believed

and ultimately much better than ICE.

The Cayenne electric can be ordered

with the off-road package

with a 25-degree approach angle.

Its air suspension lifts the ground clearance

to 245 millimeters.

Braked towing capacity is 3.5 tons

matching the combustion ones.

Range and charging will be central

to its usability.

Porsche quotes 642 kilometers WLTP

if you're not towing.

Now, Dirk Britson,

the sales and marketing director

in Australia for Porsche's SUV line

concedes that towing

does cut the figure in electric world.

But in one development run,

they towed a Porsche speedboat

for 380 kilometers between Salzburg and Stuttgart

or 250 kilometers of which were on motorway driving.

Now we'll take a break, we'll come back,

we'll talk California, BMW and Irish EVs

on the podcast. Stick around back in a moment.

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BMW is stepping up pressure on Brussels

to seal a trade deal with Washington,

arguing that tariffs are distorting the economics of EVs.

Speaking to reporters in Brussels on December 2nd,

Oliver Zipser, the firm's boss,

said the gap between the two sides is widening.

He said,

the United States already implemented its part of the deal

retroactively as of August 1st,

the EU, the European Union,

has yet to do so.

Until EU lawmakers ratify the agreement,

expected in 2026,

BMW must keep paying duties on cars shipped to Europe

from its American plants,

as well as on Chinese-built electric minis.

The United States is BMW's second-bizic,

biggest overseas market,

so any disruption there feeds straight through to margins.

Tariffs from both Washington and Brussels

have already dragged on the company's earnings.

German rivals Mercedes-Benz and Porsche

are facing similar headaches.

Zipser said it was imperative

that the European Union also finalizes

and implements the agreed measures promptly,

noting that BMW took part in talks

with the EU and the US trade officials last week.

He also faulted Brussels

for not dealing with high tariffs on Chinese-made EVs,

while China firms escape extra duties

on hybrid models that come to Europe.

BMW pays almost 31% in EU duties

on their EVs made in China.

The dispute comes as BMW is pouring

more than 10 billion euros,

or 10.8 billion US dollars equivalent,

into its Neuerklasse EV platform,

keeping pace with global leaders like Tesla and BYD,

and in some cases,

moving the game forward with vehicles like the IX3.

California has ended its EV carpool access.

Solo drivers of electric

and other qualifying clean air vehicles in California

can no longer have access to the state's carpool lanes.

As of Monday this week,

anyone driving in the HOV lane

faces a $490 fine.

The change effectively ends

California's long-running decal program for solo use.

For years, the decals let EVs

use carpool lanes,

regardless of how many people were in the car.

That privilege expired for solo drivers earlier this year,

but they gave you a 60-day grace period.

On paper, it's a big shift.

As of August the 14th,

data more than half a million motorists

had active decals.

California has 1,171 miles of carpool lanes statewide.

The perk is ending

because Congress's authorization for California's program

expired on September 30th.

That authority stemmed from a 2015

federal highway funding bill.

State lawmakers tried to keep the lanes open

to eligible solo drivers through assembly bills,

which would have extended the program

through another year.

Governor Gavin used some sign of the bill,

but it did not win the needed federal approval.

Electric cars have reached a new milestone

in Ireland's new car market this year.

Battery electric vehicles are now 18.4%

of all new registrations.

That's the highest share yet.

That edge is past the previous peak set in 2023.

Volkswagen leads the way in Ireland

with 3,265 registrations so far this year,

followed by Kia and Tesla.

The VW ID4,

Tesla Model 3,

and Kia EV3

are the best-selling EVs so far this year.

Now, a planned per mile tax on electric cars

is not going to wipe out the cost advantage

over combustion,

according to new analysis

from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

After the UK's autumn budget,

the Treasury set out plans

to charge three pence per mile from 2028.

The Office for Budget Responsibility

called it the new EVED.

We'll call it the paper mile tax.

It said that it will raise £1.1 billion

for the ex-checker in 2029.

Now, the ECIU looked at 10 years of ownership

for last year's 10 most loved EVs.

The study folded in the purchase price,

insurance, maintenance, electricity,

fuel, and the new mileage tax

that's still three years away.

Then they compared that

to the cost of running petrol or diesel.

On average, drivers save £1,450 a year

by choosing an EV,

even after paying the three pence per mile charge.

Larger models, take a Jaguar I-Pace

or a Polestar 2 or an Audi Q4,

come out at £700 a year cheaper to run.

At the smaller end,

a Renault Zoe would save £940,

a Kia E-Niro, £650 a year cheaper

than its comparable combustion car.

The study links these savings to lower charging costs

and the way that used EV prices

have fallen relative to petrol.

Colin Walker, the head of transport there,

says savvy families are dodging

the petrol premium by going to used EVs.

Industry groups say that the new paper mile tax,

along with the new annual MOT mileage checks,

risks slowing down the move to EV.

Even so, many analysts expect

both new and used EVs to still be

much cheaper to run,

particularly for drivers who can plug in at home

or on the street and benefit from smart tariffs.

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For over 40 years, family owned and operated

with buying power and competitive pricing.

Don't forget your roof this holiday season.

Fisher Roofing, everything your roof needs.

Call 503-227-ROOF.

FisherRoof.com CCB 45970.

Forget Old Man Winter.

If you need roofing help,

Fisher Roofing will answer the call.

For over 40 years,

they've been maintaining and replacing roofs

all over the Northwest.

Fisher Roofing has dedicated project managers

with their own crews, no subcontractors.

That means one person start to finish

all year, every year.

Don't wait till the new year.

Let Fisher Roofing jump on it now.

They can even use their weather tracking program

for one day roof tear-offs.

Fisher Roofing, everything your roof needs.

Call 503-227-ROOF.

FisherRoof.com CCB 45970.

DAILY: Tesla’s European Decline, U.S. Rolls Back Economy Targets and Germany Nears 2 Million EVs

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