March 3, 2026 | Iran conflict: What the auto industry needs to know

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Welcome to Daily Drive for Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

I'm Jake Neir in Detroit in for Kellan Walker.

Today on the show, Toyota and Honda post higher February sales, despite a weak market.

Nexperia's Chinese owner wants $8 billion as the Dutch block control, and auto suppliers

rush to diversify beyond cars after getting burned by Stalantis.

Plus, we're breaking down everything you need to know right now about how the Iran

conflict could affect the auto industry.

We'll hear from Darren Barby of our sibling publication, Heart Energy, about oil markets

and the potential for $100 crude, and Dan Hirsch of Alex Partners joins the show to

talk about supply chain risks and what warning signs the industry should watch for.

It certainly adds risk, and you've got to be thinking about rerouting anything that's

going to go through that part of the world just out of an abundance of caution.

Let's run through all the news you need to know to keep up in the auto industry.

Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and Kia bucked a weak February, posting higher US sales.

Toyota motor volume rose 3.2%, driven by a 22% jump in pickup sales.

That helped offset a 57% decline in RAV4 deliveries as the redesigned model launches

at three plants. American Honda sales edged up 1.1%.

Hyundai and Kia both set February records. Kia outsold Hyundai for the second straight month,

delivering 66,000 vehicles. Hybrid sales surged 79% at Hyundai and 53% at Kia,

but EV sales slumped across both brands following the end of the federal tax credits last September.

According to S&P Global Mobility, the seasonally adjusted annual rate is expected to hit

$15.6 million for February. That's down from $16.1 million a year ago.

Ford and Subaru sales results are expected later Tuesday. You can find the latest numbers

at AutoNews.com. The Chinese owner of Dutch semiconductor supplier,

Nexperia, will seek $8 billion in compensation if it can't regain control of the company.

That's according to Shanghai Securities News.

Wingtec Technologies plans to pursue the claim under a China-Netherlands investment treaty

after a Dutch court suspended Nexperia's Chinese CEO and restricted Wingtec's voting rights.

The dispute threatens global chip supplies. Shortages of Nexperia's semiconductors have

already forced production cutbacks at Nissan, Honda, and Bosch. Wingtec can initiate arbitrations

starting April 15. And auto suppliers are rushing to diversify beyond cars after getting burned by

Stellantis volume crashes and failed EV programs. Steve Weibo of Riveron Consulting says every

supplier wants to diversify, but penetrating new industries takes years. Dakota lost millions

on Stellantis business and is now pursuing aerospace and energy under a new entity called

Immotive Mobility. Aptiv is consolidating plants and targeting aerospace, defense, and telecom.

CEO Kevin Clark says non-auto industrial sectors are growing faster than traditional

automotive. Borg Warner just won a contract to supply turbine generators for data centers.

And those are today's headlines. You can find more details on all of those stories at AutoNews.com.

The conflict with Iran is raising serious questions about petroleum prices and supply

chain stability for the auto industry. Joining me now from Houston to talk about the impact on

oil and gas prices is Darren Barbie of our sibling publication, Heart Energy, who covers oil and

gas markets. Darren, welcome to Daily Drive. It's good to have you here. Hi, Drake. It's great to

be here. Can you kind of walk us through what's happening with oil prices right now because of

this conflict with Iran and how that typically translates to gas prices here in the US?

Sure. So what's happening right now is you basically get a bottleneck in the straight

of four moves where Iran is not, I think, officially declared that the straight is closed,

but this is basically a bottleneck of oil and refined products, mainly Saudi Arabia and also

Qatar. And when that is closed, it's very bad for oil and gas shipments because they can't get

through. And again, Iran has officially said it's closed. They've said things like if you

pass a ship through there, we're going to burn it. So more or less, it's effectively closed.

In terms of what it does for oil prices, for natural gas prices, do you have something like,

I think 20% of LNG or liquefied natural gas goes to the straight, something on the order of 20

million barrels per day, just a huge amount of world supply. And so if that supply is sort of,

you know, in a chokehold, that necessarily means that we have countries, particularly

Asian Pacific countries, and also some European markets that are damaged by that.

Duration is the key here. So the longer this goes on, the worse it gets,

the higher the oil prices in particular will go up. Of course, crude oil is the main ingredient

for gasoline. So those markets that are relying on Middle Eastern crude for gasoline production

and refined products, they're going to see an increase pretty swiftly. I mean, we saw already,

I mean, just overnight, US prices were up, I think about 11 cents. That's only going to

continue to go up if this continues. So Darren, just from a historical perspective,

what are analysts saying about how serious this could be compared to maybe some other

previous crises that we've seen hit the oil market?

Yeah. So you're seeing some analytical firms like Wood McKenzie that are basically saying this,

you know, could lead to $100 oil. Keep in mind that for most of 2025, we're in the

mid to low 60s. Jumping up to $100 oil is not just a detriment to the people that are paying

at the pump. It actually has recessionary impacts. So this is a major impact and could,

according to the analysts, institute a real economic shock to the system globally.

When we talk about the inflationary effects of this, does that, and I've been wondering

about this, does this mean that it could be such a shock that it pushes up the consumer price index,

or can it actually have knock-on effects to other parts of the economy that make inflation worse?

I mean, I think it can. I think the primary thing, though, is if your business is shipping things,

say Amazon or whatever, and your fuel prices are going up, that's an immediate tangible effect

for UPS, for anybody who does any kind of deliveries, but also people that are just,

you know, hauling food to grocery stores and things like that. Those gasoline prices go up,

shoot up considerably. You could have some real inflationary impacts very, very quickly.

And again, it all goes back to the duration of the conflict. How long is this going to last?

If it's, you know, a couple of weeks, you know, we'll get through it a little quicker.

If it stretches out, hopefully it will not. And to, you know, a couple of months,

it becomes a much, much more serious situation in which it will take a long time to unwind.

I think for our audience, you know, that there's a lot of people probably still have

maybe a little PTSD from the 70s and the oil crisis back then. Is there any

situation where we could see again, you know, long lines at the gas pump, like sort of these,

like, kind of extreme effects for consumers in the auto industry that we saw back then?

So for the United States, we're in a completely different situation now than we were then.

You know, the United States produces well over 13 million barrels per day of oil,

a lot of which can be used in our refineries. The rest of the refineries use a heavier crude

than what domestic shell companies are producing. That's coming from Canada, about 60% of that.

Another big chunk of it comes from Mexico. And we just get, you know, a pretty small amount from

Saudi Arabia. So we would be able to absorb, I think that shock. So no, I don't, I would not

anticipate a real impact at the pump based on that. It would be likely based on other factors,

including, hey, I can export oil and get a certain price in the United States versus

a certain price overseas, which is going to be inevitably higher. Brent's going to be much higher,

Brent being the benchmark crude for Europe. So no, I don't think, we're not going to see

anything like that. I think it's more along the lines of something like Kuwait, where, you know,

it lasted in a certain amount of time and there was a premium for quite some time. And then,

and then it eventually subsided. That was a much longer duration conflict.

Darren Barbie, senior editor at Heart Energy. Thanks again for joining us. Really appreciate

this. Glad to be here. Thanks. Coming up, Alex Partners, Dan Hirsch, discusses supply chain risks

and what warning signs the auto industry should watch for. That's next on Daily Drive.

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Welcome back to daily drive. I'm Jake Nier. The conflict with Iran has effectively closed

the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for global oil supplies. We just heard from

Darren Barbie about oil and gas price impacts. But what about supply chains? Our own Michael

Martinez spoke with Dan Hirsch, managing director at Alex Partners, who specializes in

automotive supply chains. About what risks automakers and suppliers should be watching for

right now. Dan Hirsch, thanks so much for joining me today. No, my pleasure. Thanks for calling.

So I know this is an extremely fluid situation. Things could change

within a matter of hours or certainly days. But could you sort of set the scene for me right now

on where things stand with the Strait of Hormuz, given the war, the conflict with Iran?

Yeah, of course. So just for clarity, the Strait of Hormuz is the thin strip of ocean that connects

the Persian Gulf south. And it goes it goes next to UAE where it sticks out. And then I ran on the

north side, right? So it's the Strait that that you would exit the Persian Gulf. So there's lots

of energy and oil that that flows out of there. Not a lot in terms of auto parts, right? Cars and

car parts really aren't going through that part of the world. Now, certainly going south

along the borders of Yemen, and then up through the Red Sea into the Suez Canal, there's a fair

amount of shipping there. So of course, we've seen disruption in the Suez over the past few years

with the ship blockage that happened a few years ago. And then the Haudis, right? The Haudi rebels

were disrupting shipping there. But as far as the Strait of Hormuz itself, that's really not much

of an auto parts transit, right? It's just it's kind of Kuwait, Iran, the far eastern edge of Saudi

and United Arab Emirates is the only areas affected there. Auto parts are really not going

into Saudi on that side. They go over to Jeddah for the bus part, which is on the Red Sea. So

automotive specifically, probably not a lot of disruption. Certainly oil coming out of the

Persian Gulf. Yes, you would expect that this is somewhat problematic. And from what I understand,

the Strait isn't technically closed, but there have been a lot of warnings issued and a lot of

shipping suppliers have sort of stopped going through there on their own. Is that correct?

Yes, I think that it's closed for all intents and purposes. I don't believe any entity is blocking it.

There's not a blockade, but I don't I don't believe any ships are transiting at the current time. And

then, of course, you have airplanes are disrupted in the region as well. So, you know, normal routes

that might probably not have crossed Iranian airspace are steering well clear of it. And then,

of course, you have Afghanistan and Pakistan have have something going on as well. And so

flights to India are taking some alternate routes that are adding hours. That's a significant

disruption. I mentioned not a whole lot of disruption for auto parts. What about for

minerals specifically for EV production or battery production? Is there anything related to that?

Yeah, that's not a significant flow through there. I don't believe I don't believe. Certainly,

oil has been shipped out of there regularly for decades, of course. But there's not a

tremendous amount of mining or refining in that part of the world. And material like that can

go overland, you know, that whether it's through Saudi or up into up into Europe, to get to the

Red Sea if they had to, right? So that that's a little bit easier to truck than oil where you

it's either pipeline or ship. And pipelines require NAFTA and other things that if you can't just

suddenly turn it on, there's a significant flow. So the oil is probably the most significant

thing that's getting disrupted there. And what could be the outlook? I know the president has

mentioned the US and Israel's offensive could last weeks. If there's continued disruption

for weeks, if not months, how could that impact oil prices and ultimately gas prices here in the US?

Yeah, anybody's guess how long this lasts. And I think that the strait itself being closed is

a small part of the problem. I mean, if military actions are ongoing throughout that whole region,

then oil production is going to be disrupted, much less shipping. So yeah, I mean, you would

expect that oil will spike and continue to spike. Now is that are there other options? Are there

other ways to move oil out of places like Saudi and Kuwait? Yes, but that that will also add

cost and time. So you would expect at least as long as this is going on, you probably already

have some of that priced into oil with the current spike. But the longer it goes, the higher it could

likely go. Any other issues or concerns for auto suppliers for manufacturers as they're mattering

the situation right now? Logistically, like I said, it's not a huge impact. But if this were to

escalate in any meaningful way, it could certainly become as big or bigger than the Russia-Ukraine

conflict, which had severe disruption of in a number of ways. This could be no different, right?

I guess that you already see airlines are having to shift their routes. You had not that long ago,

the howdy rebels coming out of Yemen impacting the Red Sea. They haven't taken any action currently,

at least as of my last reading, but they have aligned themselves historically with Iran. So

you could be concerned that this shifts over to the Red Sea or the Suez Canal. That would be

significantly disruptive. That would cause much like the evergreen blockage a few years ago.

That adds weeks to transit times if they have to go around Africa or go the opposite direction and

coming out of places like India and Thailand. I was wondering, and maybe this isn't an issue,

but just curious, any knock-on effects, if oil shipping or anything else that would normally

pass through the strait is rerouted somewhere, would that not clog the other shipping lanes and

potentially hurt or slow delivery time of other vessels and cargo and things of that nature?

I don't think you would see clogging in the same way that you see it with the Suez Canal,

which is only one or two ships wide at many places. That is a bottleneck. Going around

the southern tip of Africa is not as bottlenecked. It's also rougher and more dangerous to ships

generally. Now ships today tend not to have the same types of problems just with weather and waves,

but like I said, it adds a significant amount of time to get south and then come back north.

I don't think this would put any pressure on the Panama Canal. That's really the only other

significant choke point that you think of with these types of things. It's not necessarily

that it gets clogged up, but certainly it adds all of that transit time to go very far south,

come back very far north to get to the same point as you were coming out of the Mediterranean that

you get from the Suez Canal. Your bottom line takeaway for the industry is maybe not a huge

impact at the moment, but especially for oil prices, it could be a big burden as time goes on.

Yeah, 100%. Then instability in the region absolutely has knock-on effects that are going

to be very hard to predict. Some will be somewhat obvious, but the attacks that you've seen and

the instability there, but escalation, if it lasts too long, if more players get involved,

that becomes a significant problem. Of course, for auto companies, this is just one more disruption,

one more thing to be worried about and have a backup plan for your backup plan,

but the long and the short is it certainly adds risk and you've got to be thinking about

rerouting anything that's going to go through that part of the world just out of an abundance of

caution. You touched on this and your answers throughout, but are there any warning signs or

any key issues you're looking at as the days go on that if there would be a red flag for you,

if something were to happen to say, okay, now we may really be in trouble here?

Yeah, you haven't seen attacks on commercial shipping. You've seen mainly targeting military,

but things could certainly go that way. That would be one if you saw a bit of a resurgence of the

howdy's again or something like that, that would be another, but an expansion away from just

straight-off Hormuz or just things that are very close to Iran, that's where you would start to

really get worried that more significant disruption than just that small straight is

likely instead of just possible. All right, Dan Hirsch, thanks so much for joining me.

Thanks, Mike. Good talking to you. That's Daily Drive for today. I'm Jake Nier in for Kellen Walker.

Thanks to our own David Phillips and Yang Jian for their reporting for today's podcast.

We also had reporting from Darren Barbie and Kurt Nagel of our sibling publications,

Heart Energy and Crane's Detroit Business. You can get the latest news on the Iran conflict,

February sales results, and everything happening in the auto industry at AutoNews.com.

We'd love to hear from you. Let us know what you think of the show and the topics we covered today.

Send us an email at DailyDrive at AutoNews.com or leave us a voicemail at 313-444-2774.

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March 3, 2026 | Iran conflict: What the auto industry needs to know

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