The episode explores key challenges in the automotive industry, including supply chain disruptions from the Iran conflict, the growing divide between wealthy and lower-income car buyers, and the rising trend of buyers stretching auto loans to seven years or more to afford record-high vehicle prices. Insights from industry experts reveal how some lenders are cautious with long-term loans while others are more lenient, impacting future negative equity risks. Additionally, Pinewood.ai CEO Bill Berman discusses why private equity firm Apex Partners backed out of acquiring his company amid AI market disruption fears, despite Pinewood.ai's strong position.
"Vehicle ownership expenses jumped 48% from 2019 to 2025, far outpacing inflation when you factor in insurance, maintenance, and fuel."
When you own a car, you have to pay for more than just buying it. You also pay for things like fixing it, gas, and insurance. These costs add up and affect how much owning a car really costs.
Vehicle ownership expenses include all the costs associated with owning a car, such as insurance, maintenance, fuel, and depreciation. These costs can significantly impact a buyer's budget beyond just the purchase price.
"According to Edmonds, just under 21% of new vehicle buyers financed for 84 months or more in the fourth quarter."
Edmunds is a company that helps people learn about cars and prices so they can buy smarter.
Edmunds is an automotive information company that provides data on car prices, reviews, and financing trends to help consumers make informed decisions.
"According to Edmonds, just under 21% of new vehicle buyers financed for 84 months or more in the fourth quarter."
When you buy a car and pay for it over 7 years, your monthly payments are smaller but you might pay more money overall and could owe more than the car is worth.
Financing a vehicle for 84 months means spreading the loan payments over seven years, which lowers monthly payments but increases total interest paid and risk of owing more than the car's value.
"Buyers end up paying more interest over time and risk being underwater on their loans."
If you owe more money on your car than it is worth, that's called being underwater, and it can make selling or trading the car difficult.
Being underwater on a loan means owing more money on the car loan than the car's current market value, which can be risky if you need to sell or trade in the vehicle.
"If a customer or buyer is really interested in a longer loan term, they will really, really weigh that with their background, essentially. Take a look at their accredited score, their history, and decide whether or not to give them that loan term based off of that, which is going to really hopefully be able to point to whether or not they're going to be able to pay off those loans and be able to avoid that negative equity later on down the line."
Loan term is how long you have to pay back the money you borrow to buy a car. Longer times mean smaller payments but you might end up owing more overall.
Loan term refers to the length of time over which a car loan must be repaid. Longer loan terms can reduce monthly payments but may increase total interest paid and risk of negative equity.
"Take a look at their accredited score, their history, and decide whether or not to give them that loan term based off of that, which is going to really hopefully be able to point to whether or not they're going to be able to pay off those loans and be able to avoid that negative equity later on down the line."
Negative equity means you owe more money on your car than what it's worth if you tried to sell it. This can happen if the car loses value quickly.
Negative equity occurs when the amount owed on a car loan is more than the car's current market value. This can happen if the car depreciates faster than the loan is paid down.
"to people without a ton of like a credit check and stuff like that for these longer loan terms and obviously generally at higher interest rates as well."
A credit check is when the bank looks at your history of paying back money to decide if they will lend you money and how much it will cost.
A credit check is a review of a person's credit history by lenders to assess their ability to repay a loan. It influences loan approval and interest rates.
"for these longer loan terms and obviously generally at higher interest rates as well. He said if there's going to be any result that any people that are driving that, it's going to be those lenders"
Interest rates are extra money you pay when you borrow money to buy a car. Higher rates mean you pay more over time.
Interest rates are the percentage charged by lenders on top of the loan amount, representing the cost of borrowing money. Higher interest rates increase the total cost of a car loan.
"That's where auto traders accelerate my deal elite. Online checkout comes in. Accelerate my deal elite isn't just another digital retailing tool that takes the dealer"
Digital retailing means you can buy a car on the internet without having to go to the car dealer. You can do most of the buying steps online.
Digital retailing refers to the process of buying and selling vehicles online, allowing customers to complete much of the car purchase process remotely without visiting a dealership in person.
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Welcome to Daily Drive for Thursday, March 5th, 2026.
I'm Jake Nier in Detroit in for Kellan Walker.
Today on the show, the Iran conflict forces automakers to delay Middle East shipments,
wealthy shoppers keep auto sales afloat while lower income customers struggle, and more
buyers stretch auto loans to seven years or longer to afford record prices.
Plus, Pinewood.ai CEO Bill Berman joins the show and explains why private equity firm
Apex Partners backed out of acquiring his company and how AI disruption fears in the
software market are spooking investors.
Apex had great due diligence, got all the way down to the 11th hour, and when they went
for their final vote on investment committee, a lot of the noise and disruption that had
happened from what came across with anthropic had a pause.
Let's run through all the news you need to know to keep up in the auto industry.
The Iran conflict is rippling through global auto supply chains.
India-based automakers are now delaying shipments to the Middle East and North Africa.
The Strait of Hormuz has become effectively impassable, forcing costly rerouting around
South Africa.
Companies including Tata Motors, Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, and Volkswagen's local
unit are holding off to avoid emergency surcharges of up to $2,000 per container and war-risk
insurance spikes.
The region represents 8-40% of export volumes for key manufacturers, freight costs, and crude
linked inputs like tires could squeeze margins industry-wide.
Wealthy shoppers are keeping auto sales afloat while lower-income customers struggle.
Two economists say the economy is splitting in two.
Cox Automotive's Jeremy Robbs says higher-income shoppers are doing fine, but it's brutal
for lower-income consumers facing slower wage growth and higher costs.
Vehicle ownership expenses jumped 48% from 2019 to 2025, far outpacing inflation when
you factor in insurance, maintenance, and fuel.
NADA's Patrick Manzi says that's manageable for dealers.
In 2020, half of new vehicle buyers made under $100,000.
By 2025, just 37% did.
Meanwhile, those making over $250,000 nearly doubled to 21% of buyers.
And with more people struggling to afford new cars, more buyers are stretching their
loans to seven years or longer just to make it work.
According to Edmonds, just under 21% of new vehicle buyers financed for 84 months or more
in the fourth quarter.
That's up nearly 3% from the year before.
It's the third straight year that number has climbed.
According to Kelly Bluebook, average new vehicle prices hit a record more than $50,300 in December.
The problem?
Buyers end up paying more interest over time and risk being underwater on their loans.
Joining me now to talk more about this issue is Riley Hodder, who's been covering the
story for us at Automotive News.
Riley, welcome to Daily Drive.
It's great to have you here.
Hi, Jake.
I'm happy to be here.
I think this is something that is touching on a lot of issues that retailers are thinking
about these days that are really top of mind.
You mentioned that analysts at Edmonds and Experian are concerned about spikes in negative
equity down the road, something that we've been talking a lot about at Automotive News
over the last couple of months.
Are lenders showing any signs that they're tightening standards on these ultra-long loans,
or are they still treating them as business as usual?
Yeah.
It's actually funny you mentioned the analysts because I got the most clarity on that topic
when I talked to a dealer in Kokomo, Indiana, because the dealers, they interact with so
many lenders, so they get to see a wide range of experiences.
Essentially what he talked to me about was that they have essentially two types.
There's a bit of a range, but two general types of lenders in this topic with these
long-term loans.
You have lenders that are doing it right.
One example he gave was Capital One is doing it really well.
If a customer or buyer is really interested in a longer loan term, they will really, really
weigh that with their background, essentially.
Take a look at their accredited score, their history, and decide whether or not to give
them that loan term based off of that, which is going to really hopefully be able to point
to whether or not they're going to be able to pay off those loans and be able to avoid
that negative equity later on down the line.
Obviously, not always the case because sometimes crazy life events happen, but it hopefully
points in the right direction.
Then there's other lenders that really just as long as the loan term fits within their
guidelines, they're willing to give it to anybody.
He said that's really who we're just going to be able to, who is going to drive in any
possible increase and negative equity that come as a result of these loan terms is going
to be those lenders that are not really thinking about it at all.
Those lenders definitely exist and they're definitely out there and they're lending
to people without a ton of like a credit check and stuff like that for these longer loan
terms and obviously generally at higher interest rates as well.
He said if there's going to be any result that any people that are driving that, it's
going to be those lenders, but they are still out there and they're doing it.
There are some that are kind of stingy and they're kind of upping their standards when
it comes to these longer loan terms, especially beyond 84 months, but there are some places
that they are really just saying if you are interested in this kind of loan, we're happy
to give it to you.
Interesting.
Now, you spoke with a dealer in Kokomo who said his store is trying to have those hard
conversations with customers about loan length and what it could mean for them, but how common
are those approaches across the industry in your estimation?
Are most dealers still prioritizing the sale over steering customers towards shorter, more
financially stable loans?
Yeah.
So, I mean, he did tell me at the end of the day, you got to get the deal.
You're a dealer, you're there to sell cars, you got to think about yourself, you got to
get the deal.
And kind of what he talked about was a little bit of like a balance that you have to establish.
If you sell somebody a longer auto loan term on their car and then they end up having a
really negative experience with that because of a lot of the consequences, having that they
really costly services and repairs later, while you're still paying off your loan, having
higher interest rates than normal, having to pay off more in interest than really you
would have had to if you had just gotten a shorter loan with a higher monthly payment.
And none of that was brought up in your original conversation with your salesperson or your
finance person at your dealership.
They're probably not going to come back, they're probably going to be pretty upset.
But also, you want to be able to make sure that the customer is making the right decision for
them and you're not kind of telling them what to do because they're also probably not going
to come back if that's something that you do.
So, he's like, it's striking a balance.
You don't want to have your salespeople and your finance people be essentially avoiding
talking about these things for the sake of getting the deal.
But you also don't want them to push anything on them.
So, you just want to be like, hey, these are some things that you need to be aware of.
Sadly, this kind of approach is really not that common because he also pointed out that a lot of
people, a lot of dealerships, they don't really have the resources to be thinking
that heavily about the consequences, especially if they're thinking month to month and they're
really, really trying to be able to hit their monthly goals and especially dealerships that
are struggling financially right now.
Dealerships struggling to move really expensive cars to people who maybe aren't able to afford them.
And those people are often really, really overworked and they don't have a ton of time
to sit there and be like, hey, this might not be the best idea for you, especially,
and also salespeople who need to make money themselves.
They need to get commissioned for their families and stuff like that.
So, it's not the most common standard, which is really unfortunate, but it's not necessarily
dealers are out here trying to manipulate people or take advantage of them.
It's sometimes they just don't have the resources to be able to have these really long-term
kind of conversations with these people and sometimes they really need to prioritize
their business and prioritize the deal.
To quote the late great prince, the sign of the times, Riley Hodder.
Thank you so much for joining us on Daily Drive and we will keep following this.
Really appreciate your reporting.
Thanks for your hot any.
Coming up, pinewood.ai CEO Bill Berman joins us to explain why Apex Partners walked away from
acquiring his company and what AI disruption fears mean for automotive software.
That's next on Daily Drive.
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Welcome back to Daily Drive.
I'm Jake Neer.
Pinewood.ai had a breakout moment at NADA this year,
winning two awards and signing deals on the show floor.
But behind the scenes, private equity firm Apex Partners
was in the final stages of acquiring the company and taking it private.
Then, at the 11th hour, they walked away.
Our own Mark Holmer spoke with Pinewood.ai CEO Bill Berman
about what happened and why fears about AI disruption in the software market
spooked investors, even though Berman says his company has a moat that protects it from the threat.
Bill, thanks for joining me once again.
I hope things are going well so far.
Everything's going great, Mark.
Nice to see you again as well.
Sure. We last talked at NADA and so I'm wondering how it went for you.
I blew by all of our expectations.
It went absolutely amazing.
I think that's the 20th NAD I've been to and maybe a little bit more than that.
Mark, I don't even know this, but we actually won two awards.
I'd even know there was awards to be won.
I didn't either.
But we won, yeah, we won Best New Intrent and Kim Costello,
and our marketing team and all of our associates did a great job.
And we actually had the best booth as well.
So we were kind of a double award winner, which was great.
And then in addition to that, we had a huge influx of customers
way exceeding our expectations out there.
And everything was incredibly well received.
All kinds of great opportunities, even a couple of small deals
that we were able to sign on the spot for our various products.
And I think we've got a great pathway
as we made our first official launch into North America.
So really exciting.
And overall, the team did incredibly well.
Well, congratulations.
I'm wondering if how soon we can see or hear
some of those announcements that are to come.
Well, good or bad, we're publicly traded.
So we can't say the one until we say it to the public.
But as those things mature and get out there based on size and scale,
we will be obliged to announce that to the market.
But right now, we're keeping it close to the vest.
But like I said, it really exceeded our expectation.
I'm glad.
I'm glad.
Right around the time of NADA, APEX, a private equity firm out of the UK
was contemplating an acquisition to take your company private.
And that came out right around NADA.
So there was a lot going on.
It's like everything at once.
But since then, they have declined to go further.
So I'm wondering, from your perspective, what happened
and what's your reaction to that?
Yeah.
So listen, I think we've built a great company.
And lots of people have looked at us.
I think APEX is a unique private equity.
As it relates out there, they've done lots of investments
in automotive technology in North America as well as in Europe.
They kind of dual offices both in New York and London.
And they engage with us to the end of last year on a potential take private.
And they were even offering up the ability for our existing shareholders,
i.e. Lithia, for example, to be able to roll over
into a new privately held company.
During that transaction or during those kind of negotiations
and going into the due diligence, there was a leak.
And we had to make a market notification.
And that was on the 29th of January.
And then shortly after that, right around NADA,
you had the anthropic news that hit with Claude
and kind of the disruption and some of those legal platforms and the such out there.
And there's been a huge adjustment within the overall software market as a whole.
And APEX did great due diligence, got all the way down to the 11th hour.
And when they went for their final vote on an investment committee,
a lot of the noise and disruption that had happened from what came across
with anthropic had in pause.
So they had several different deals working.
They ended up pausing on all of those.
Within a UK context of being publicly traded,
we can't engage with them for another six months.
But it was 100% for because of what happened with the anthropic
and kind of some of the disruption in the software basis.
That said, listen, we're happy being publicly traded.
There was a great pathway with Lithia and other shareholders in APEX to go private.
We would have been equally successful that way.
But we don't think this limited us or it really changes anything.
I just think it's a timing issue.
And once again, even the conversation publicly all started because of a leak.
And those things happen at times.
But at the end of the day, it didn't take anything away from what happened at NADA,
what's happened since then, just the overall kind of work ethic
and driving determination that team have has just been accelerated.
So I feel we're in a great space right now.
I'm glad that things are moving forward.
But I'm curious too, if you could flesh out a little more,
what happened with anthropics specifically that put the kibosh on this and other deals like it?
So one of the renditions of Claude, that's their engine,
kind of like a chat GPT that came out there,
they had a destructive force when it came into the legal platforms that exist out there like
Harvey.
And it showed that you could sit here and use a engine like Claude to be able to develop
certain amounts of software by different groups, so to speak,
to be able to do different functionalities.
And there has been a real reaction in the public markets on that,
on various software companies that have got hit quite drastically
because there's a fear in the marketplace that different software companies could be disrupted
by AI, by people or small groups being able to build homegrown solutions
to facilitate different aspects within their businesses.
The unique thing about Pinewood AI is multifaceted,
but we have an enterprise-level accounting platform.
We're in 36 countries, so we're able to provide an enterprise-level accounting platform,
a system or record across those 36 countries.
That is not something that's displacable with AI.
We have integrations with the top 50 OEMs in those 36 countries.
Worldwide, those are very bespoke and specific to each one of those OEMs.
Those aren't open source lines of code or communication that can be written.
So that's another thing that wouldn't be easy or actually would be virtually impossible
for AI to disrupt.
And I think what's happened is a company that got Pinewood.AI,
we've got lumped in with anything that resembles software,
and there's a thing to be said that we could be disrupted.
I 100% don't believe that to be the case in any way, shape or form.
I could see why if you're in different facets in software,
where I might be a little bit more worried,
but with our products, what we offer, and the services and the tech that we provide to our
customers, I feel we've got a great mode around us to be able to grow on a go-forward basis.
And by disrupted, you mean what?
Well, I mean, if somebody couldn't sit here and write an enterprise-level accounting platform
for automotive using chat, GPT or CLOT.
So you couldn't discriminate a DMS system like ours
by using an outside AI engine to go out there and do that.
So what you're saying then is that there's a perception that AI has its evolved through
platforms like Claude could basically do the work that companies like yours and Techeon and
CDK and the others can do. And so investors are a little wary of companies like yours.
It's overall software, but yeah, specifically when it comes to automotive,
we're the only publicly traded of the groups that you just described.
We're the only publicly traded one. It's the same thing whether it's in Europe and the other
players here, but none of those. And I would say a company like ours with our tech stack,
our data stack, the functionalities and capabilities we have, or even a step above those
when it comes to having a mode around us to prevent disruption from AI.
And Mark, you and I have talked about this before, the dot AI, we actually have
high amounts of AI functionality already built into our system. We have freestanding AI products
that we sell on top of that. So I think we're in a unique position where not only do we have
the mode built around us with our enterprise-level accounting platform, the integrations with the
top 50 OEMs worldwide, in addition to the AI products, I think we've got a well-capsulated
thing here. But within a normal investment, and you look at the way investors do it, especially
things that are computer-driven or different modules, a software company is a software company
to a lot of those type of investment groups, and they don't really differentiate a company like
Pinewood AI that has a mode around them versus somebody that might be more easily disrupted.
I understand. You had mentioned that as a public company in the UK that you won't be talking to
APACs again for at least six months. So what happens after that?
So if somebody else made a bid for the company, we could APACs and come in. It's a UK listing
rule, and what it basically says is that if someone's made an offer and pulled that offer off the
table, they can't come back a month later and try to put a different price out or renegotiate.
It's called be put pencils down, and it gives time for everything to settle. In six months,
if APACs wanted to restart a conversation, and maybe normalities hit back into the
software market, we'd be open to any conversation with any good partner that could help us grow
the business to the level we are now or maybe even at a faster pace. But they can't engage with us
unsolicited for six months. I got you. Let's circle back to the US. You have a very big client
to start with, Lithia, and we talked a little bit about some news that you expect by March.
In terms of rollout. Tommy, what's going on? Yeah, so in March, and actually we've already
started this, we're doing our UAT testing, and we've already got different modules that we're
testing in the store. So we have our platform up and running in North America. So we're already
running in a Porsche facility in Canada. We're operating right now in a facility in Lithia right
now, where we have different functionalities and different aspects of our platform being
operated into there. After we've done that, we'll go to a second brand, do our UAT testing,
and then we'll start rolling out in the second half of this year through 27 and the first part
of 28 for all 320 Lithia stores. So you're at this point, at least, you're on schedule?
Well, it's never as fast as I want it to go, Mark, but yes, from what we've put out into the
marketplace, we're going on the glide path that we'd set up. Excellent. Bill, thank you for your
time. We appreciate the conversation. Till next time. Thanks, Mark. Talk to you soon.
That's Daily Drive for today. I'm Jake Nier in for Kellan Walker. Thanks to our own John Hutter
and Riley Hodder for their reporting for today's podcast. You can get the latest news on AI and
automotive software, auto loan trends, and everything happening in the auto industry at
AutoNews.com. Come back tomorrow for a conversation with Cox Automotive executive analyst, Aaron
Keating, about the company's latest dealer sentiment survey, which shows that retailers
remain tepid at the beginning of 2026. Most of them were feeling, of course, coming down off of
last year. Fourth quarter was a little bit difficult. January is always sort of a slower time. Weather
was a major impactor, but February, you know, to be honest, we've just started to see some of the
results and they sort of match what their optimism was that February sales started to pick up. And
so they do see that that spring bounce as usual is something to be optimistic about.
We'd love to hear from you. Let us know what you think of the show and the topics we covered today.
Send us an email at dailydrive at autonews.com or leave us a voicemail at 313-444-2774.
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