A deep dive into the alarming rise of auto loan delinquencies, hitting a 32-year record, particularly among subprime borrowers. The hosts, Ray and Zach, discuss the implications of this crisis on the automotive market, highlighting the challenges faced by those with poor credit and the potential for a bubble in the auto loan sector. They explore the historical context of auto lending, the impact of extended loan terms, and the risks associated with targeting financially vulnerable consumers. The episode is packed with data and insights that paint a concerning picture of the current auto financing landscape.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data from the auto loan markets. Tune in to learn more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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"...you can see dealers who are doing things like adding add-ons. What would those add-ons be? I don't know, this dealer just happens to add premium clear bra and ceramic and knack combo and tire and wheel and other accessories..."
Add-ons are extra items or features that you can buy when you purchase a car. They can make the car look nicer or add more protection, but they usually cost more money.
Add-ons refer to additional features or accessories that dealers may offer on top of the base price of a vehicle. These can include things like paint protection films, upgraded wheels, or aftermarket accessories that enhance the vehicle's appearance or functionality.
"...this dealer just happens to add premium clear bra and ceramic and knack combo..."
A premium clear bra is a special plastic film that you can put on a car to protect the paint from scratches and damage. It helps keep the car looking new for longer.
A premium clear bra is a type of protective film applied to a vehicle's paint to guard against scratches, chips, and other damage. It's often used on high-impact areas like the front bumper and hood to maintain the car's appearance.
"...this dealer just happens to add premium clear bra and ceramic and knack combo..."
Ceramic is a special coating that you can put on a car's surface to protect it. It helps keep the car clean and shiny by making it harder for dirt and water to stick.
Ceramic coatings are a type of liquid polymer applied to the exterior of a vehicle to provide a protective layer. They help repel water, dirt, and contaminants, making the car easier to clean and enhancing its shine.
"...tire and wheel and other accessories, and, oh man, the list goes on and on."
Tire and wheel packages are sets of tires and wheels that you can buy for your car. They can change how your car looks and how it drives.
Tire and wheel packages refer to the complete set of tires and wheels that can be purchased for a vehicle. Upgrading these can enhance performance, aesthetics, and handling characteristics.
"with car dealers, saving people on that day from first OTD to last OTD, $57,924."
Out-the-door price is how much you actually pay for a car, including everything like taxes and fees. It's the total cost to own the car once you leave the dealership.
The Out-the-door price (OTD) is the total cost of purchasing a vehicle, including all taxes, fees, and additional costs. It represents the final amount a buyer will pay to drive the car off the lot.
"...84-month car loans are a death trap for customers. Brian Binstock talking about 84-month car loans are bad for car dealers, even though it helps them sell cars today..."
An 84-month car loan means you pay for your car over seven years. This can make monthly payments smaller, but you might end up paying more in interest overall and could owe more than the car is worth if you want to sell it later.
An 84-month car loan is a financing option that allows buyers to pay off their vehicle over a period of seven years. While it may lower monthly payments, it often results in higher overall interest costs and can lead to negative equity, where the car is worth less than the amount owed.
"...we would need a lot of butter to get Ray into this vehicle. The Vector W8. I can't wait to see this. Wait for it, Dad. Let me share the screen with..."
The Vector W8 is a rare sports car that was made in the 1980s and 1990s. It has a unique look and was one of the fastest cars of its time, featuring a powerful engine.
The Vector W8 is a high-performance sports car produced by Vector Motors in the 1980s and early 1990s. It is known for its distinctive design and advanced technology for its time, including a twin-turbocharged V8 engine.
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It's noon here in the city of New Jersey,
and this is Courage Live for Monday,
February 16th, President's Day, ladies and gentlemen,
with your host, me, Ray, in my condo,
and, well, my handsome son, Zach, in my condo.
Well, go figure, who knew?
Oh, he's rolling me in, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.
Father and son, what are we talking about today?
We're talking about so much stuff today,
the auto loan crisis just hit a 32-year record.
Today's show, folks, is brought to you by caredge.com.
If you haven't checked it out, please do.
And, yes, a friendly reminder,
we have a new in-data product out there,
caredge.com slash dealer dash ratings,
or Google search car edge dealer ratings.
You can come here and you can find dealers.
We don't have all of them.
We only have the ones that we've contacted.
We are rating them based on how transparent they are,
so you can come in here and you can see dealers
who are doing things like adding add-ons.
What would those add-ons be?
I don't know, this dealer just happens to add
premium clear bra and ceramic and knack combo
and tire and wheel and other accessories,
and, oh man, the list goes on and on.
And, yes, we have all sorts of reports on here as well.
Check out your state, check out your brands of interest,
and learn more about our AI negotiator,
which every day, Dad, you're now updating this page
to show you how many AI negotiations have been started
and how much money we have saved for people.
So back on February 12th, we started 272 negotiations
with car dealers, saving people on that day
from first OTD to last OTD, $57,924.
This page updates every day.
Share your feedback in the chat below.
Share your feedback in the comments section,
so proud of what we're building back at caredge.com.
That's all out of the way.
Oh, well, but you said it's in data.
Now, you know, there are many people out there
that have high blood pressure
and they take beta blockers.
Will they be able to utilize the beta version
even if they're on beta blockers?
This is the type of insight.
You come to caredge for folks.
All right, Dad, let's turn our attention here
to the 32-year record that was just set.
You ready?
Yes.
Also, I just want to pull this up here.
Radon says, I cannot see the worksheets.
We are adding, what's it called,
to block the personal information.
Redaction.
We're adding redaction on the outdoor worksheets.
That'll be back up soon.
So you can actually view the original OTT worksheets.
Subprime auto loan, 60 plus days past due delinquency.
This comes from Bill Blug over on LinkedIn.
Great content from him.
January 2026 starts the year with a 385-month record high
from January 1994 to January 2026.
Delinquency heat map covers 385 months.
You ready for this?
Yeah.
The heat map reflects subprime, bottom heat map is prime.
No issues with prime auto loans
in terms of serious delinquencies.
Green equals lowest delinquency rate
for specific months across multiple years.
Red equals highest delinquency rate, excuse me,
for specific months across multiple years.
Yellow is the midpoint.
You ready for this?
Yeah.
Here is your subprime 60 plus days delinquency chart.
What do you see on the chart, Dad,
when you're in 2024, 2025, but now it's starting 2026?
A lot of red.
A lot of red.
A lot of red.
A lot of red.
Yeah.
It's like we're on fire.
We're on fire.
Yeah.
This is those that are subprime credit.
This would be your prime credit.
Now, what do you see with prime?
It was back in 1995 and 96, the year I was born,
that the prime credit market was not doing so hot,
but now it's fine.
Yes.
What the heck is going on, Dad?
We have a 32-year record now.
For subprime 60 plus day auto loan delinquency.
Explain to us what auto loan delinquency is.
Explain to us why this is so concerning.
This thing's been red now for three.
We're coming up on the fourth year of it being red,
being at the highest levels.
Well, delinquency is when people fall 60 days behind
on their loan payments.
60 days or more.
Yep.
And typically, once you hit 60 days,
banks consider the possibility of repossessing the vehicle
and then taking it to an auction and selling it
and recouping whatever they can.
But this is scary in the sense that we know people
with good credit are handling their credit obligations well.
We can look at this and we can see that people
with subprime or bad credit have been struggling
for three going on for years,
and it is becoming increasingly more difficult
for them to handle their current credit obligations,
which would indicate to me that they are stretched
to the max and beyond.
And we know, because all the data points to it,
we have extended loan terms,
more available access to credit,
higher levels of negative equity,
but higher levels of loan to value ratios.
We have, I continue to go back to it frequently,
Wells Fargo last year piloting programs
at 140 plus LTV for those that had 500, 600 credit scores.
You have a bubble right now,
and I know we use that word fairly liberally,
so please stick with me for a minute.
What more clearly do you need to see
that suggests there's a bubble going on?
What is it, Carvana?
It's got to make $100 of income a week
to be able to get approved for an auto loan?
Yeah, it was $5,000 annual income
to qualify for an auto loan.
And guys, what are we seeing in all of the data,
which essentially what this delinquency data is,
is it is at a minimum a 60-day rear view mirror perspective?
Because it's sure you, accounts that are more than,
so it's looking in the rear view,
it's saying decisions that were made in the past,
I don't know, two months or greater,
so over the past few years,
have now led us to a situation where this chart shows it,
we have a 32-year record high
for our current subprime loan crisis in the United States,
and what insinuates or suggests it's going to get better?
Again, access to credit's easier than it was before,
loan value ratios are higher than they've been in the past.
The credit worthiness of customers continues to decline,
but they're getting approved for longer and longer.
Like, this is bubble territory.
It makes you wonder why anybody that buys asset-backed securities
would jump on buying the asset-backed securities
from, say, someone like Carvana,
where we know that the vast majority of their bank contracts
are subprime.
Why would you run the risk looking at the stats
as we have them, looking at that chart,
and go, yeah, let's buy that stuff.
I mean, what could possibly go wrong?
We are at a 32-year high, and yet it doesn't set off alarm bells
to Wall Street sometimes, and you have to wonder why and how that is.
Well, doesn't it keep the merry-go-round going around?
Yeah, but at a certain point, the damn thing's going to break down.
Isn't that what this starts to suggest?
What happened?
Actually, walk us through this, because I wasn't around for it,
but you were obviously selling cars then.
Why was prime auto loan delinquency so high in 96 and 97?
What was going on then?
You know, I don't remember.
Yeah, I really don't.
I mean, there was a tech bubble that burst.
But that was a little bit later.
That was closer to 2000, wasn't it?
Yeah, I thought so.
I honestly don't remember what was going on in 95 and 96 that would have caused
prime borrowers to have so many issues.
It just was obviously well before the Great Recession.
Let's do this then.
There's a comment section on this post that's actually in our industry.
For automotive professionals, this has gone fairly viral.
Yeah.
There's 200, and what was it?
240 likes and 41 comments and 26.
This is getting a lot of attention by the industry, and with good reason.
As well, it should.
So let's see here.
Seth actually asked the author, Bill, so let's see here.
I think, but I'm not 100% certain, in the mid 1990s,
high prime delinquencies was driven by fact.
Subprime auto loan activity was just emerging in large scale,
and the significant subprime disaster of that time was bleeding over into prime.
Below image shows the January year-over-year 60 plus day delinquencies
segmented by prime and subprime used to create the heat naps as published by Fitch.
Interesting.
So the green would be prime, and the red would be subprime.
Let me go all the way back.
Yeah, so actually, there you go.
You can see it was subprime that actually spiked even more.
You know, I do remember back in the dealerships that that was a time when
subprime lending was really taking off.
Had a bankruptcy?
No problem.
We can get you a new car loan.
Anybody that, when their bankruptcy was discharged,
borrowers or lenders and dealerships were buying those lists and then immediately sending out
correspondence to those people suggesting that, well, you know,
you just got out of bankruptcy.
You need to get the debt again, and we can help you.
And so I do remember thinking back that that was when subprime lending really started to
take shape, and it was this second chance finance, and we can help put you in a car.
And so, yeah, that's probably what it was.
So think about that for a second.
We are acknowledging the fact that we are at record setting, 32-year record setting,
auto loan delinquency rates for subprime.
And then we look at the prime chart.
The only rational justification we have from the author of this content and then my own dad's
experiences is, well, actually the numbers are being skewed by more subprime lending
actually happening at that time.
And probably what it sounds like to me, miscategorizing some people as prime borrowers,
then we're actually subprime borrowers.
That is absolutely crazy.
I want to put up another comment here because it rings so true.
I'm not naive, but I've never been able to wrap my head around targeting a group of people
already struggling and then saddling them with a risk-based pricing model that does
absolutely zero to help them, but rather jam them further into their plight.
This reminds me there was another post from someone in our industry today,
dad, talking about 84-month car loans are a death trap for customers.
Brian Binstock.
Brian Binstock talking about 84-month car loans are bad for car dealers,
even though it helps them sell cars today.
It stops them from selling cars in the future.
Something that I've talked about for years, which is dealers become enamored with short-term
profit gains and they don't look at the long-term ramifications.
And we have discussed that, that when you put people into 84-month and 96-month auto loans,
that you are essentially taking them out of the market.
And so many of these customers would prefer to be able to get a new car.
Brian Binstock.
Thanks, dad.
Binstock would prefer to be able to get a new car in three years or four years and not necessarily
have to wait six or seven years.
So it's dealers being short-sighted.
It is finance managers maximizing their pay plan potential
by putting people in these longer loans.
And then I'm telling you that the two, three years from now, these same dealers are going to
be wondering, how do we get our customers back?
You don't.
You can't bring them back.
It just doesn't work that way.
So what do you think happens on the other side of this, Deb?
Seriously, we are seeing bubble activity like never before.
What happens on the other side of it?
And to be clear here, it's other signs as well.
Bill's got so much good data on his page.
Let me quote back up on the screen.
Here is showing you the percentage of auto loans and lease balances becoming 30 and 90 days
past due.
And you can see here, this is your 90 day pass, excuse me, that is your 30 day pass due.
We're not even back to where we were pre-recessioned, but it's gone up significantly.
It's this cohort here, dad, 60 days past due that is rising to record setting highs.
And then obviously we're seeing the 90 day pass due increases.
Well, what happens on the other side of this?
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Well, I guess to piggyback on that one comment, not being naive.
I'm not naive either.
And to me, I don't know how it makes good sense to enslave people into debt.
The way that we have, especially people who have proven in the past for whatever reasons
that they were unable to handle their previous obligations.
So how do we come out on the other side?
What happens?
Maybe, just maybe, we look at the situations that we have created through the use of debt
in this country.
And we really start to educate people as to how to properly handle debt, what you really need
to be looking at before you sign on the dotted line.
You know, people fixate on a monthly payment.
They don't fixate on a term.
They don't fixate on what the total cost will be if they make all those payments
and then they add in their down payment and everything else.
They would be absolutely shocked to see what it's costing them.
So maybe we need lenders to say, we need to stop taking advantage of these people
because that's what they're doing.
Last time I checked, that's not the business model.
But I do hear what I'm hearing in your words are maybe there's a reset that happens on the
other side of us and a new approach to how we do automotive lending because to be clear here,
one of the outcomes eventually should be that there will be fewer people in the market to buy
cars.
And as a result, you will actually see car prices become more affordable.
That is a long, long, long time coming.
And they never actually come if financial institutions continue to find ways to do
financial engineering to get more people into more car loans.
Which at the end of the day, the banks can enable it, but it's the individual making
the decision to put themselves in that position.
They're the ones that have to be accountable.
You can't absolve the people who sign on the dotted line.
But you can chastise those who profit from encouraging them to do it.
Okay.
And I understand that it is not a bank or a lending institution's job to educate
the person who's looking for the loan.
It's not their job to counsel them.
It's not their job to sit them down and say, this is not a good financial decision for you to make.
I get that.
But at a certain degree, there has to be some amount of humanity that is associated with
capitalism.
Come on, man.
You're 74.
You're 74.
Yeah, I am.
You're 74.
You know that's not going to happen all the time.
So we got the red alarms blaring.
And you know what's still going to happen today?
You know what's still going to happen today?
Banks are going to lend to people who shouldn't get approved for an auto loan.
I can assure you.
That's still going to happen today.
We're going to switch gears here just a moment before we take it.
It happened during the great recession.
It happened with mortgages.
Does this actually feel like 08 again to some degree?
Well, I mean, back in 06, 0708, if you can fog a mirror, in other words, all you had to do
was be breathing.
If you can fog a mirror, you can get approved for a mortgage, for a house that you couldn't afford,
which is what caused the housing crisis.
And the same holds true for many car loans today.
If you walk into a dealership and you have a provable pulse and they could put a mirror
under your nose or mouth and it fogs, then there's a bank out there that will say,
hey, they fogged the mirror?
Yeah, sure.
Let's give them a loan.
And I get that.
And I get why dealerships do it because they're focused on their short-term profit interests.
But the long-term impact removes these customers from the marketplace in the future.
So you're making today look good while you're shooting yourself in the foot for
what's going to happen to three, four years from now.
You know, during COVID and during the chip shortage, manufacturers stopped underwriting
specialized lease programs for their customers.
And leasing, which at one point in time represented 32%, 33% of all sales,
dropped to about 17%, 18% of all sales.
The beauty of leasing is it forces your customer back in the market every three years or so.
Beauty from the industry perspective, yeah.
And from the dealership perspective.
That's what I mean by industry.
That's what I mean by industry, yeah.
And so to not have any lease returns coming back, not have those people back in the market,
putting those people on 70 to 84, 96-month loans.
And we know of banks out there, credit news out there, offering 120-month loans.
It is a short-term gain that will be a huge long-term loss.
That type of insanity is the type of thing that three, four, five years from now,
when those customers can't come back and you're struggling to find other customers to replace
them, then alarm bells will be going off because bankruptcy will be a real option for many of
these dealerships because there's nobody out there to buy a car.
And so sometimes you just have to put that short-term gain to the side and go,
no, I want to do something that is more beneficial for the continuing health of my business moving
forward. It seems to me. But then again, then again, I know people are going,
but you took advantage of people for 43 years. I allow people to make stupid decisions at times,
but oftentimes I sat them down and I said, this is not in your best financial interest,
at which point they would shoot back at me and go, don't tell me what I should or shouldn't do.
I'm buying the damn thing. Okay, well, if you want to be that damn stupid, go right ahead.
But it's not like a few years from now, you're going to come back to me and go, well,
you didn't warn me because I'll remind you of the conversation we had.
So you've seen this movie before. I participated in this movie before.
And I think the scale of what's happening right now is very concerning. And the data,
the macro data suggests that it's really, really, really bad. It's foundational. And to be clear,
it's a 32 year record. We have not since 1994 seen numbers this bad when it comes to
auto loans and the health of auto loans in the United States of America. And it is
undoubtedly impacting those that have worse credit than those that have good credit. Those
are the good, that's the cohort that's being impacted the most right now.
It is an indictment of our system and our society as to how we have grown so dependent upon
credit. And we have given in to our wants as opposed to our needs and allowed ourselves to
be taken advantage of and to become slaves to that debt. That's what it's an indictment of.
I love this comment then from Henry Matthews. I literally sat my daughter down yesterday and
explained auto loans and credit to her. Her takeaway was the industry is so scammy if you
actually need a vehicle quickly. More parents need to A, understand how these concepts work in
practice and then B, teach their offspring. Yes. This stuff is very important to understand.
We've been around for six years. We have been trying to share that information with people
for six years. There is no excuse today with the advent of the internet and all the information
that is available to us. There is no excuse today for people to be so ill-informed that they can
make the types of decisions that are setting them up for failure in the future. We can
say part of it is it's the parent's job, part of it it's the educational system's job, but part of it
is just a customer googling on the internet and getting as I mean how much free information
is out there just on the internet. How much free information have we shared with people over the
years? There is absolutely no excuse today if you allow this to happen yourself. I get
that you don't want to be the person that says I want it. I can't afford it. Okay,
so therefore I'm not going to get it because in this country it's I want it. I know I can't afford
it, but there's people out there who want to lend me money so that I can pay them back the money that
I don't have so that I can convince myself that I can afford the stuff that I really can.
How do you think we're paying for lunch today? We're doing installment payments for the next 72
months. Whatever it is. I get it. I mean there's so much pressure in our society to not appear as
if you're a loser because you don't have more than what you need. Let's make it cold a little
bit within your means again because the chart that we started today's show with dad, let me pull
it back up here, the chart that we started today's show with is like very very very concerning because
it also I think to a degree exacerbates a little bit of like the class system inherently here in
the United States. It's not that this is happening to prime borrowers right now. It's happening to
subprime borrowers, those that are trying to look apart or try to be a certain way. Those are the
borrowers that are all red right now, which again is the highest levels of auto-land delinquency
we've seen. Prime is hunky dory. Yeah. There's a lot of like anthropological, societal, there's a
big kind of like psychographic conversation to be had around all this. I think key takeaway for our
community is obviously be informed and then the other piece is this could eventually, who knows,
but eventually actually impact the car market. We take these people out of the market, there's
less demand. When you take out demand and you keep supply at the same price, it should go down.
That should be what happens. Or as a manufacturer you will understand that more and more people
are ending up in 72, 84, 96 month loans and you will adjust your future manufacturing
so that you are producing fewer vehicles so that your dealers don't become inundated with
inventory and they have to just cut pricing to any large degree. It's a real problem that nobody
ever really addresses and those who find themselves in that situation, it is as if there is no way to
get out of it once you've done that to yourself. You're talking about subprime car loans.
We know at the moment consumer debt is at the highest level it's ever been. Credit card uses
is at the highest level it's ever been. The amount of debt that consumers keep taking on
in order to maintain the lifestyles to which they have grown accustomed that they can't afford,
we see that go up month after month after month. We know most people do not pay off their credit
cards. They make minimum payments. The minimum payment is going to take you 30 years to pay
off the debt. You've got to pay more than the minimum but if you're stretched to the max
sometimes it's hard to be able to afford the minimum. We as a society have created this cycle
and we need to break the cycle. We need to say it's okay if you don't have the latest and the
greatest. You just have something that works and works well but I don't see that really happen.
Yeah, I'm right there with you. Dad, a couple more comments from the chat and then I want to
switch gears here for a moment. Some folks saying 2008 all over again. Obviously,
Bill, one of the car edge team members, my son is taking a money management class at school at
13. That's good. Good. More and more and more of that and we have here from Rich Diana as well
with a kind contribution. Thank you, Rich. We would need a lot of butter to get Ray into this
vehicle. The Vector W8. I can't wait to see this. Wait for it, Dad. Let me share the screen with
everyone. Stand by. We got the Vector W8. We're going to need the butter pops up to get in and
out. Yeah, that thing looks low to the ground. Wow, what a cool looking car though. Yeah, yeah,
I mean, yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Nicely done, Rich. We love it. Yeah, you just put me in a
vat of Crisco. Light them in and it's flying me in. Yeah. Again, folks, I'm seeking input.
This is in beta caredge.com slash dealer dash ratings or just Google car edge dealer ratings.
This is a new database. So for those of you that are not familiar, we have an AI agent,
it's part of Car Edge Pro. It's been reaching out to dealerships since July of last year. And in
that time, it has collected thousands of Albedor price quotes. We've actually contacted 46,920
or had 46,920 conversations with car dealers. We've added on this page, which is just under
reports and then AI negotiation impact. We've actually added a daily updating tracker,
which will show you cumulative savings that Car Edge has brought for our community,
including how much we were able to save on that day and how many new AI negotiations were started.
I think this is so cool, dad. We do a lot of information here to try and quantify our impact.
Like, did you know that we have sent 436,000 messages to car dealers and they've replied with
the most half a million? Wow, that's crazy, man. That's absolutely crazy. All sorts of information
on this page. I encourage everyone to check it out. But we've taken that information. Yes.
And then you can come here and you can search by dealer and you can actually find dealers who
have been ranked based on their performance, based on the information that they've provided.
So you can see here, this is a dealer that is the number three most transparent in California,
Ms. Lynn Honda. You can see it's because, well, they don't have add-ons. They actually gave savings
from the first OTD to the last OTD. So please, folks, this is in beta. I'm seeking input and
feedback. Please share it in the comments and in the chat. Very, very helpful for us. We want it
to be something that's useful for our community. Well, I think crunching the data will be very
useful, where you can compare an A dealer to an F dealer and go F, the F dealer,
in my opinion. Unless, of course, you're a subprime borrower and you'd like to get
screwed, then go to that deal in my opinion. How about that? How about that? All right,
let's call it a show for today. We'll save some of the other topics for tomorrow. We actually
have the physical copy of Consumer Reports' auto updates. Sorry, I'll be talking about that tomorrow.
So stay tuned for more Car Edge Live. But that's going to be here by your side. And grateful to
do another show with you. Thank you, everyone, for tuning in. And please, please, please share
today's episode with a friend. Let's try and get some more financial literacy out there, I think.
Yeah, that would be a wonderful thing. Yeah, it really would. Yeah.
All right, y'all, we're back tomorrow with more Car Edge Live. Thanks so much for tuning in.
Yeah. Have fun, everybody.
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