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2026 Car Market Chaos | Episode 1064

2026 Car Market Chaos | Episode 1064

CarEdge Live May 05, 2026 39 min
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About this episode

Rising new-car prices, tariffs, and inventory levels set the tone as Doug Horner explains why elevated prices often stick once buyers accept them. The conversation then shifts to dealership transparency, with a best-price-upfront model, FTC scrutiny of deceptive online pricing, and the growing drag of negative equity on approvals. The hosts also dig into why long loan terms can trap frequent traders underwater, while closing with personal notes about a Dartmouth lecture and industry events.

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Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Car

Toyota 4Runner

"Jump in campers, we're going off-roading in a four-runner. Next, we're heading to the hot springs in a RAV4."

The Toyota 4Runner is a rugged SUV that’s meant for rough roads and trails. Here, they’re using it for off-roading, so it’s the “go anywhere” pick.

Company

Ben's and Bowtie's

"We've got Doug Horner from Ben's and Bowtie's. Doug, how are you doing this morning?"

They mention “Ben's and Bowtie's” as Doug Horner’s connection. It’s basically the name of his automotive business or platform.

Company

Mercedes-Benz North Olmsted

"He's built such an incredible social following over at Mercedes-Benz North Olmsted. You can see it right here, dad, over on Instagram and here on YouTube,"

They mention “Mercedes-Benz North Olmsted” as Doug’s dealership. It matters because he’s giving a dealer’s perspective on what’s happening in the market.

Brand

Benzes

"The Benzes came first. Okay. And why the bowties?"

“Benzes” is just slang for Mercedes-Benz cars. It’s used here to refer to the Mercedes brand.

Brand

Mercedes dealership

"And I thought, you know, at Mercedes dealership, we're in suit and tie every day. Sure. So I thought, you know, I'll start wearing a bow tie because in Ohio, nobody really wears bow ties."

They’re talking about working at a Mercedes car store. That’s where Mercedes cars are sold and serviced, and the sales staff’s presentation matters.

Term

new vehicle inventory

"It's today's average marketed price as well as new vehicle inventory."

This means how many new cars are sitting at dealers and available to buy. Fewer cars usually means higher prices, and more cars usually means more deals.

Term

average marketed listed price

"So we're at an average marketed listed price of $51,477 in the new car market right now."

This is an average of the prices sellers advertise for cars. It shows how pricey cars are getting, even though the final price can be different after deals and discounts.

Concept

new baseline

"Once they've realized that somebody will pay it, that kind of becomes the new baseline and they move up from there."

A “new baseline” is the new normal price level. If people keep paying higher prices, businesses often stop lowering them and treat that higher level as the starting point.

Concept

supply got cut

"So it's like this unfortunate because COVID happened the way it did and supply got cut,"

“Supply got cut” describes a reduction in the number of cars available to sell, often due to manufacturing disruptions or logistics problems. In car markets, reduced supply can tighten availability and help keep prices elevated.

Company

Stellantis

"I mean, just about, you know, Stellantis was very famously raising prices on Jeeps, more so than most manufacturers, but it's just now that that baseline has been set, it's going to take a lot of work for the price to go back down."

Stellantis is a big car company that makes and sells lots of different brands. Here, they’re being mentioned because their Jeep pricing went up a lot.

Term

incentives

"I'm hoping that we can get more incentives that will start to push it down, but I worry that, you know, unless consumers start pushing back, it's probably just going to keep going up... Would that preclude Mercedes from increasing incentives since that could cut into their profits so dramatically?"

Incentives are discounts or deal offers that make a car cheaper to buy. The point here is that if tariffs make cars cost more, companies may have less room to offer big discounts.

Concept

tariffs

"Here's a question for you with the Trump administration announcing that there could be increased tariffs on EU cars, which, well, would impact Mercedes-Benz... I mean, the tariffs have been such an interesting thing because I don't think any manufacturer wants to be the first one to make a move here."

Tariffs are extra taxes on imported products. If cars from Europe get taxed more, carmakers often have to either raise prices or offer fewer discounts to protect their profits.

Term

special APR

"Maybe a reduced incentive or an interest rate, a special APR that's a little bit higher."

APR is the interest rate on car financing. A “special APR” means the lender is offering a lower promotional interest rate, which can make the loan cheaper.

Company

Ford

"They were the number one abuser when it came to price increases over the last decade. Ford, the number two when we did the analysis, both significantly above the inflation rate."

Ford is another automaker being compared in the hosts’ pricing analysis. They say Ford’s price increases were also higher than inflation over the period they studied.

Company

Cox Automotive

"We've been analyzing this ever since it came out on April 16th. This is from Cox Automotive. Day supply falls in March after elevated readings in January and February."

Cox Automotive is a company that collects and analyzes car-market data. Here, they’re the source for the inventory and pricing trend numbers the hosts are discussing.

Term

days supply of inventory

"And we love to look at this chart down here, Doug, that shows the day supply of inventory by Grand. And I am especially interested in your take care on Mercedes because Mercedes here nationally, at least this is what Cox Automotive reports, has a 104 days supply of inventory significantly above the nationwide average."

“Days supply of inventory” tells you how many days dealerships could keep selling cars with the cars they currently have. More days usually means cars are moving slower; fewer days usually means they’re selling faster.

Term

day supply

"[524.2s] what does day supply mean for you as a general manager? [533.4s] So the most simple explanation of day supply is, let's say, for example, I had 200 new cars [539.9s] in stock based on the current sales rate of the last trailing several months. [545.5s] It would take me 104 days in this instance to sell all of those vehicles, right?"

“Day supply” is a way for a car dealer to estimate how long their current car stock will last. It’s based on how fast they’ve been selling cars recently.

Term

sales rate

"[533.4s] So the most simple explanation of day supply is, let's say, for example, I had 200 new cars [539.9s] in stock based on the current sales rate of the last trailing several months. [545.5s] It would take me 104 days in this instance to sell all of those vehicles, right?"

“Sales rate” means how fast cars are being sold. If sales are faster, the dealer’s stock will sell through sooner.

Term

trailing several months

"[533.4s] So the most simple explanation of day supply is, let's say, for example, I had 200 new cars [539.9s] in stock based on the current sales rate of the last trailing several months. [545.5s] It would take me 104 days in this instance to sell all of those vehicles, right?"

“Trailing several months” means they look at sales from the recent past. Instead of guessing, they use what happened over the last few months to make the estimate.

Concept

best price upfront model

"We moved to a best price upfront model about two years ago, and we're very proud about that... It means it is a very aggressive price that is pre-negotiated, pre-discounted. You don't have to ask for it. You get it."

It means the dealership shows you the best deal right away, before any back-and-forth. You don’t have to ask for discounts or negotiate to get the good price.

Concept

pre-negotiated, pre-discounted pricing

"It means it is a very aggressive price that is pre-negotiated, pre-discounted. You don't have to ask for it. You get it."

It means the dealership figures out the deal price ahead of time. So you don’t have to negotiate or wait for discounts to be “worked out” during the buying process.

Concept

negotiation-free selling process

"And the reason I say excellent is, at one time I helped one of the dealerships that I worked with move to a negotiation-free selling process where it finally dawned on the owner that, you know, let's just make it easy for people."

Instead of bargaining over the price, the dealership sets a clear deal upfront. That makes buying a car quicker and less stressful because you don’t have to negotiate.

Brand

Nissan

"And, you know, I remember back in the mid 80s when I was at an Nissan dealership and we were building a new facility."

Nissan is a car brand. Here it’s just part of the speaker’s story about working at a dealership.

Concept

move the metal

"Excuse me, a lot of innovation at the dealer level to figure out ways to move the metal to get things going. There are quite a few other big stories in the auto industry I'd like to get your take on."

“Move the metal” means sell the cars that are sitting on the lot. The hosts are saying dealers are trying hard to keep sales moving despite high prices.

Concept

dealer level

"Excuse me, a lot of innovation at the dealer level to figure out ways to move the metal to get things going. There are quite a few other big stories in the auto industry I'd like to get your take on."

“Dealer level” just means what the car stores themselves are doing. In this context, it’s about dealerships trying to sell cars even when prices are high.

Company

Federal Trade Commission

"I'd like to get your take on what happened earlier this year with the Federal Trade Commission. I think this is a really, really important story... It was earlier this year back in March the FTC sent letters to 97 dealership groups about deceptive pricing."

The Federal Trade Commission is a U.S. agency that helps protect consumers. Here, they’re looking into car dealers that may be posting misleading prices online.

Concept

deceptive pricing

"It was earlier this year back in March the FTC sent letters to 97 dealership groups about deceptive pricing. It was then documented over an automotive news that this is happening in a more widespread fashion..."

Deceptive pricing means a car price is shown in a way that isn’t really what you’ll end up paying. The show says the FTC is targeting dealers who may be using misleading online price listings.

Concept

bait and switch pricing

"And we were grateful to contribute here to the automotive news's journalism on what's happening with bait and switch pricing and all sorts of things that the FTC is going after."

“Bait and switch” is when a dealer advertises a tempting price to get you interested, but then the deal you actually get is different. The episode links this to misleading pricing tactics.

Concept

fine print

"And then when you get halfway or into the middle of the fine print, there's some ridiculous disclaimer that disqualifies 98% of people."

“Fine print” is the small, detailed wording in an offer that can change what you actually get. Here, it’s being used to describe rules that most people don’t meet.

Concept

dealer add-ons / added requirements

"And then that's when the dealer was like, oh, well, by the way, did you go to Oxford in England and you're also in the military and you're a paramedic?"

The dealer is basically saying the price only applies if you meet extra conditions. If you don’t, the price goes up.

Company

Edmonds

"We have been looking at the data from Edmonds. I mean, every single quarter they put it out, we do some studies as well."

Edmunds is a car research site that tracks pricing and market trends. Here, the hosts say they use Edmunds’ quarterly reports for their own research.

Concept

negative equity

"The rate at which people are underwater on their car loans is growing and the amount that they're underwater is over $7,000... negative equity end up spending $932 a month on their new car payment."

Negative equity means you owe more money on the car than it’s worth. So if you try to sell or trade it in, you still have a balance left to pay.

Concept

underwater on a car loan

"The rate at which people are underwater on their car loans is growing and the amount that they're underwater is over $7,000."

“Underwater” means you owe more on the loan than the car is worth right now.

Term

loan-to-value

"That's just like the mechanical answer... And that's for loan to value, which is just obviously every car has a certain value assigned to it by a bank."

Loan-to-value is how big your loan is compared to what the car is worth. If the loan is too big for the car’s value, banks get nervous and may not approve the deal.

Concept

leasing vs buying

"I see a lot of people who buy cars that should be leasing cars. And people, they always look at me and they're like, oh, you want me to lease because it's better for you."

Buying means you’re paying to own the car; leasing is more like paying to drive it for a few years. The host is suggesting leasing can help avoid getting stuck owing more than the car is worth.

Term

84 months

"So if you're one of those people, don't finance a car for 72 months or 84 months because in two to three years when you go to get a new one, you're going to be underwater."

“84 months” means the loan is about seven years long. Since cars usually lose value quickly at first, a long loan can make it harder to sell or trade without owing money.

Term

72 months

"So if you're one of those people, don't finance a car for 72 months or 84 months because in two to three years when you go to get a new one, you're going to be underwater."

“72 months” is how long the loan lasts—about six years. Longer loans can make the monthly payment smaller, but you may pay more interest and you can end up owing more than the car is worth.

Car

Toyota RAV4

"Next, we're heading to the hot springs in a RAV4."

The Toyota RAV4 is a compact SUV that’s easy to live with. It’s a common choice for people who want one car that works for daily driving and occasional trips.

Car

Toyota Tundra

"And finally, park your tundras and Tacomas around the campfire because we're roasting marshmallows."

The Toyota Tundra is Toyota’s full-size pickup. It’s meant for heavier jobs like towing and hauling, but it can still be comfortable for everyday driving.

Car

Toyota Tacoma

"And finally, park your tundras and Tacomas around the campfire because we're roasting marshmallows."

The Toyota Tacoma is a midsize pickup truck. It’s popular because it’s tough and works well for both daily driving and outdoor adventures.

Term

trade it in

"And I think it was 70 or 80% came back in two and a half or three years to trade it in to get a new one. [1339.8s] And it was like, folks, you should be leasing the damn thing."

Trading in means you turn in your current car to the dealer and use the value toward a new purchase. The dealer’s offer matters a lot for how much you still have to pay.

Term

lease

"[1349.5s] Sign up for a three year lease and guess what, you can do that. [1353.9s] Exactly. [1356.4s] But we are a society of people who usually want more than what they can afford."

A lease is like renting a car for a few years with an option to return it. You’re usually not buying the car at the end, which can reduce the risk of being stuck with a loan.

Term

finance it for a much longer term

"And in order to make it appear as if it's affordable, they agree to finance it for a much longer term than is reasonable. [1369.0s] And I would imagine when you see negative equity..."

A longer loan term makes the monthly payment smaller. But you usually pay more overall, and the car can lose value faster than you’re paying it off.

Term

EVs

"So, you know, back a year ago when there was all kinds of free government money on EVs and plug-in hybrids, we had a mechanical route to go with people, right?"

EVs are electric cars that run on electricity from a battery instead of using gas as the main power source. Incentives can make them cheaper to buy, which affects financing decisions.

Term

plug-in hybrids

"So, you know, back a year ago when there was all kinds of free government money on EVs and plug-in hybrids, we had a mechanical route to go with people, right?"

Plug-in hybrids can charge like an electric car, but they also have a gas engine for longer trips. They sometimes get special incentives that can affect the deal.

Term

depreciation

"[1431.6s] And my advice in those situations is, look, if I were you, what I would do is I would throw every extra dollar I can comfortably throw at it every month to try to get out. [1444.1s] Don't make the minimum payment because clearly you're not going to outrace this depreciation, right?"

Depreciation is how much a vehicle’s value drops over time. The speaker is warning that making only the minimum payment won’t “outrace” depreciation, meaning the car may keep losing value faster than the loan balance is shrinking.

Concept

credit score

"And I remember we had a couple one time. And I believe their credit score was like in the 560s or 570s, and it's like, what are we doing?"

A credit score is a number that shows how good you are at paying back borrowed money. Car lenders look at it to decide if you can get financing.

Car

Mclaren 570S

"...elieve their credit score was like in the 560s or 570s, and it's like, what are we doing?"

The McLaren 570S is a fast, expensive sports car designed for performance driving. It’s not a daily commuter—more of a specialty car. The podcast brings it up while talking about credit or affordability.

Concept

co-signer

"Why would you even think? Well, let us get a co-signer, okay? And then they brought their son who had limited credit..."

A co-signer is a second person who promises to pay the loan if the main borrower can’t. Lenders use it to reduce their risk.

Concept

bottom line price

"And so dealerships can make it easy and give you a bottom line price. But if that bottom line price is still way more than what you can or cannot afford..."

“Bottom line price” means the final total you’d have to pay. The point here is that even if the dealership gives a clear total, it still might be too expensive for the buyer.

Term

loan approval

"they want to buy a Mercedes-Benz, but they just, they can't, we can't get them approved for a loan. [1826.1s] There's just like no possible way."

Loan approval is when a bank or lender decides whether it will finance your car purchase. If you’re not approved, you can’t buy the car using that financing.

Term

bad credit

"trying to get people that had bad credit financed for something, I was at least going to do it, trying to get them financed for a reasonable price car where they stood a shot"

Bad credit means your past borrowing and payments make lenders think you might be a higher risk. In this conversation, it’s why some people couldn’t get car financing.

Brand

Acura

"But yeah, when you worked at Penske, didn't you at the Acura dealership, didn't you wear a suit? [1894.3s] We had to, when, when I worked for the Penske realization, we had to wear black pants, a"

Acura is a luxury car brand. The hosts mention an Acura dealership because it was where the speaker worked and had to follow certain rules at work.

Company

Penske

"But yeah, when you worked at Penske, didn't you at the Acura dealership, didn't you wear a suit? [1894.3s] We had to, when, when I worked for the Penske realization, we had to wear black pants, a"

Penske is a big company that runs parts of the car business, like dealerships. Here, the hosts mention it to explain what kind of uniform/dress code they had to follow at work.

Term

dealer reviews

"We've pretty much built like a Yelp dealer reviews capability. So go to dealer reviews, click on ratings and overview."

Dealer reviews are customer ratings and comments about how a car dealership treats buyers. The hosts are saying you can use those reviews to help choose which dealer to shop.

Term

out-the-door price

"This ratings and overview comes from all of the dealers that we reach out to 54,303 verified out the door price quotes."

“Out-the-door price” means the full total you pay to buy the car. It includes the car price plus taxes and fees, so it’s the best way to compare different dealers.

Term

A to F grade

"We then grade dealers from A to F. I encourage everyone to look at the dealer reviews, look at the map."

The A-to-F grade is a quick ranking for dealerships. It helps you compare them fast, but it’s still smart to look at the reasons behind the score.

Term

Dock fee

"Their Dock fee is just under the Utah average. So good data here, back on the CarEdge platform for the dealer ratings and dealer reviews."

A dock fee is a charge for getting the car from the delivery point to the dealership. It’s usually listed on the paperwork, so you can compare it across dealers.

Term

contribution margin

"From Rich, we had a very kind contribution coming here. This is very generous of you."

Contribution margin is a way to see how much money is left after paying the costs that change with each sale. It helps you understand whether sales are actually helping the business make money.

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