Car Dealers Can't Sell Expensive Cars & They're FINALLY Feeling IT | Episode 948

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Hey, Ray here in Glorious Venter City and Zach Savanna, Georgia.

That's it, ladies and gentlemen.

Savanna in the background.

The Washington DC is legitimately where he is.

How are you today, handsome?

Doing fantastic.

Happy Wednesday, October 22nd to everyone.

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Now, Dad, the big story is...

May I say one thing first?

Say anything, Dad.

That's a bat.

A big-ass team, ladies and gentlemen, and they are standing by,

ready, willing, and able to help you save money, save time,

and take control of your life.

Why someone else is putting up with all the BS that the car dealers are throwing

their way, not your way.

The big story this morning, Dad.

Thank you for that. Appreciate it.

Q3 auto retail earnings.

Lithium motors.

Dad, their profit went down 1.1%.

Not a big deal.

No.

The big deal is when you scroll down and you realize that gross profit per new vehicle

actually declined 11.2%.

We are finally seeing some ramifications.

What happens?

The question to ask is, what happens when car dealers can't sell expensive cars?

They're finally having to cut into those record profits per vehicle.

An 11% decline in profit per vehicle sold is not small, Dad.

I was pretty shocked when I saw this, that Lithium, and what we're going to do today

as part of our live experiment as a team here with CarEdge Live,

is we're going to go to Lithium's website.

We're going to find some of their dealers.

Then we're going to go to the Magic CarEdge machine,

and we're going to actually look at some of their inventory.

We're going to ask my dad, if he was managing those dealerships,

what type of deals he'd be giving out to people.

Dad, let's start there.

Lithium 11%.

Let me just say one thing.

I was known affectionately as a razor giveaway artist.

Okay?

What is that?

He's not here to hold gross profit.

He's just going to give everything away.

So when you sold cars, you weren't trying to always make as much money per car sold?

Yes.

Well, part of my job was to make as much money per car sold as I possibly could.

Yes.

That was my job.

But if it came to the point where the customer just wouldn't say yes,

it meant that I hadn't lowered the price enough,

and then ultimately, if I had to give the damn thing away, basically,

in order to make that sale, I would do it.

So let's talk a little bit, Dad.

Lithium's profits down 11%.

Do you think more and more sales managers,

at their hundreds of dealerships,

so for context for our community,

Lithium is one of the largest car dealer groups in the United States.

Thank you.

They are the largest car dealership group in the United States.

So the largest group seeing 11% declines in gross profit per vehicle,

does that mean more and more of their operators?

The general managers, sales managers at their stores are operating like you used to,

saying, you know what?

We can't make as much money on these cars.

We just got to sell them for less and we'll make less.

Absolutely.

At this point in time, they just want to create opportunities for their finance and insurance people.

The folks in the FNI office who handle the completion of the transaction,

all that paperwork, you want to just give them an opportunity to sell the products

that they have to sell on the back.

It costs them, oh, hundreds of millions of dollars to floor plan their billions of dollars worth of new car...

Explain what floor plan means, Dad, for our community.

Floor plan is the credit line that each of these dealerships has

that they utilize to pay for their new cars.

So just like a customer, they're not paying cash.

They are financing their new car inventory.

That's known as floor plan.

Now, when you're as large as Lithia is,

you are talking about financing billions of dollars worth of new cars

and it costs them hundreds of millions of dollars to do that.

So rather than continue to pay the accruing interest on that inventory,

their general managers and sales managers have been instructed to do whatever it takes to get a deal done.

Hence, we've seen an 11% drop in their new car gross profit per vehicle sold.

11% is significant, okay?

It is extremely significant.

And that would indicate that they realize what the future is.

And the future is that it is with the high price of automobiles,

it is harder and harder for most Americans to be able to say yes to buying a car.

Yeah, absolutely. Here's an example, Dad. I just went over.

So as you all know, we have the AI negotiator that's reaching out to hundreds of dealerships every single day.

I just went ahead, Dad, and downloaded one of the recent Lithia deals that we worked on that the AI negotiator worked on.

And look at this. This is on a 2025 Hyundai Tucson Limited.

We've got a dealer discount on a Hyundai, Dad, of over $5,000.

Talk about throwing away your front-end gross profit.

There is no gross profit on a deal where you're doing a $5,500 discount on a $42,000 Hyundai.

That's more than 10% off, isn't it?

Yeah, so this is a perfect example of $42,000 Hyundai. That's not the sweet spot for a Hyundai customer.

A Hyundai customer doesn't want to spend $42,000 on a car.

That's the first one I downloaded, and we've got a well over 10% discount from the dealership.

And again, that's why you're starting to see these manufacturers have produced all these expensive vehicles.

These dealers can't sell them. What does that ultimately manifest as?

Lower profit per vehicle, which to your point, Dad, is a business decision they're making to then try

and make more money selling you the loans, selling you the warranty, selling you the gap insurance,

selling you the paint protection, which obviously, if you're in the car edge community,

you know if it's taxable, it's negotiable.

But Dad, this is what's going on over at Lithia.

And if Lithia is the largest car dealership in the United States,

it's a car dealer group in the United States, how do you imagine it's happening to others as well?

I would bet dollars to donuts that all the other large publicly traded dealer groups out there

are doing the same thing. They can see the writing on the wall.

They know the size of the checks they're writing to their floor plan banking institutions

on a monthly basis. They can add all that up and see what it's costing them.

Trust me, at this point, it is less expensive for them to take a short deal and get rid of a vehicle

than it is to continue to carry that vehicle on the lot in inventory.

You know, obviously, they were making over $3,000 per vehicle sold on the new car side.

Now it's the 28 and 64. That's a huge...

And let me be clear about one thing.

Please be clear, pops.

Well, I'll do my best.

In 2020, 2019, 2021 before COVID,

average front-end new car gross profits in the industry were somewhere.

You're sitting down, folks.

Somewhere between $250 and $300.

That was the front-end gross profit, okay?

So at $300, so if they're now at 28, 64,

that is almost 10 times what the front-end gross profit was just five or six years ago.

So it's still astronomically high,

but the fact that it's coming back down will it ever get back to the $250 and $300 range?

I don't know. I sort of doubt it.

But you never know.

If you would have said to me back in 2020,

hey, can you envision a day where the average front-end gross profit on a new car would be $3,000?

And my answer would have been, yeah, at a Porsche store, okay?

Not at a Hyundai store, not at a Jennie store.

Let's take a second to thank the sponsor of today's program,

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It's 60 seconds here, and you're going to want to see what we do next.

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Dad, you've been getting phone calls?

I feel like Delete Me protects you, man.

Have you been getting some spam calls?

Well, all of them are from Arizona,

and the reason they're all from Arizona is because,

well, the area code on my cell phone is 602, which is Phoenix.

Yeah, just so maybe they're just like spamming Arizona.

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Now, here's the deal.

We're going to do an experiment here.

Let's you have the largest dealership group in the United States.

Dad, what state do you want to go to?

We're going to find the dealership,

and we're going to look at their current inventory.

Now, when we look at their current inventory,

we are going to then identify vehicles that are highly negotiable

and see what they're doing in terms of pricing.

So where do you want to go, pops?

Let's go to Georgia.

Haven't been to Georgia in a while.

All right.

So, Lithia, it looks like they have some dealerships around it.

Sorry.

So let's see.

We've got three dealerships to choose from.

We've got Subaru of Decatur, Wade Ford, and Curry Honda.

Do you have a preference, Dad?

Honda, Subaru, or Ford?

Let's do Subaru.

Okay.

It's been a while since we've done anything for Subaru.

So, Subaru of Decatur.

So let's go check out their website really quickly.

Just go new vehicles.

Okay.

Can we just take a second?

This is the experience of going through a dealership website.

What the actual F is going on here?

Okay.

We're going to get, no, I want to get rid of that.

Yes.

I want it.

Yeah, show me a cross track.

Oh, God.

Oh, my God, Dad.

Holy cow.

You'll have a lot of them.

Dad, people give us a pain.

Say our website's not great.

This is not.

Okay.

There we go.

I found a vent.

Holy cow.

Coming back over here.

Let's go look at this.

Wowza.

That was, our website's so much more clean compared to that.

So all right.

Let's start.

Yeah.

36,807 dollar MSRP, 34,634 dollar dealer invoice price.

The target discount range is anywhere from 1,500 to 2,500 big ones.

But I'm curious about that.

Yep.

First thing I want to look at here, what's the days supply of the Subaru cross track

indicator, Georgia?

101 days.

That's high, Dad.

60 days.

It's sold in the last 45 days, but to your point, they've got a lot of them for sale,

134.

Yeah.

No, 101 days supply.

You know, dealerships and manufacturers would love for that number to be around 60 days.

They all start to get concerned when that day supply approaches 90 days.

Once you cross the 100 day barrier, you're really starting to get a little nervous.

So if you're the sales manager of this dealership and let's just scroll down here.

They just got this one.

This is like brand new.

They literally just got this one.

So maybe they're not ready to wheel and deal on this one pops.

But let's go down here.

I want to find where is it?

Where is it?

Okay.

Here we go.

We've got the dealer Decatur Subaru.

So I'm going to click on that.

Whoops.

That's going to take me to that website.

Okay.

So actually what I'm going to do is I'm going to go back to the car search.

Yes.

And we are looking for Subaru's.

Yeah.

I think that was a cross track, wasn't it?

Yep.

And I'm going to go nationwide really quickly so that then I can come down here to dealership.

Whoops.

And I should be able to put Decatur.

Oh my.

This is, yeah.

There we go.

Nice.

Yeah.

Love the dealership filter on the car edge car search.

So now we're looking at all the Subaru's for sale at that Decatur Subaru.

Decatur Subaru.

Yep.

There we go.

And what I want to do here, Dad, is I want to sort by oldest.

Man, we can do all this on our website.

Interesting though.

They're saying the oldest one is only five days.

That's got to be.

Wow.

No.

But the dealership just opened and they just got stocked for the year.

What the heck?

Yeah.

What is going on here?

Well, I hate when this doesn't work.

I'm not believing this.

Yeah.

Well, you know why you're doing that.

I'll do a watch check real quick because people have been asking.

Today's watch, ladies and gentlemen, why, why is it?

What the heck?

Why we're trying to get some, some valuable information off of there is a bull of a Sutton.

It is an automatic tank style watch.

Love it.

Display, display back.

It's 21 jewels and relatively inexpensive.

So anyone looking for a tank style watch, the bull of a Sutton seems to fit my tastes.

Perhaps it'll fit yours.

There you go.

Got that out of the way.

People have been asking.

I'm so, I don't, I don't know what's going on here because there's no way.

I mean, all of these are marked as intransit, which is also interesting to me.

Maybe that dealership just opened.

Let's pick a different lithium dealership in Georgia.

Okay.

That other one was Wade Ford.

Wade Ford or Curry Honda.

All right.

So let's go forward here.

Yeah.

There's going to be no Fords at Decatur server.

That makes sense.

Well, I'm going to go to dealership and we'll do Wade Ford.

Wade Ford.

There we go.

Wade Ford, Wade Ford.

Here we go.

That's so interesting dad.

So that's Subaru.

So Wade Ford here.

This looks what I was expecting.

We've got in this case a 2024 Ford escape.

He have 586 days on the market.

Do you really think maybe they did just open up that Subaru dealership?

It could be.

Maybe they just bought it and it just changed hands.

And this is their initial allocation of inventory.

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So let's talk about this because I think it's more likely.

It's more likely that we've got a dealership that's not just opening day.

Dad, you're the sales manager of this particular dealership.

Let's actually focus right here.

2024 Ford F-150 Platinum, nearly an $80,000 MSRP 490 days on the market.

And again, the lead here is that car dealers cancel expensive cars and they're finally starting to feel it.

What are you doing as the sales manager on this particular vehicle?

Well, my guess is at the moment as the sales manager, I'm pleading with my general manager, not the fire me.

And the general manager is pleading with the regional vice president from Lithia to not fire him.

Because there is no way from a corporate perspective that they would want to have vehicles in inventory for 500 and some days, 490 days.

So if I was the sales manager or the general manager at that store,

every one of my aged vehicles would be upfront and around the showroom, if not in the showroom.

And they would have what I affectionately refer to as a Woznowski.

What's a Woznowski?

A Woznowski is a mirror hanger that says the price was X, whatever that was.

And the price now is a hell of a lot less than X.

Okay, that is a Woznowski.

So every one of those aged vehicles would have a Woznowski with a ridiculously low price.

Every one of my salespeople, there it is, a Woznowski, ladies and gentlemen.

Every one of my salespeople would have a special list of all the extra commissions they could make on selling these aged units.

What's referred to in the industry as a SPF or a bonus.

Now, my SPF or a bonus on vehicles like that would be you will get your minimum commission, whatever the minimum commission is at that store.

It might be $100, it might be $250.

I don't know, but you would get the minimum commission plus a dollar for every day that car was in inventory before it was sold.

So that F-150 that was there for 490 days would get you the minimum commission plus $490.

So my guess is their minimum commission is probably around $250.

Sounds like they'd have a $740 commission if they sold that car.

And so let's come full circle.

The sales manager or general manager is what I would do to move those units.

So let's come full circle here.

The headline today is that the gross profit per new vehicle at the world's largest car dealership group fell 11%.

So what did we do?

We went to Lithia's website.

We found one of their dealerships.

In this case, we're looking at Wade Ford, which is one of their dealerships that they own.

And that dealership has a 2024 new Ford F-150, $78,765 MSRP for almost 500 days and they haven't been able to sell it.

Now the loss that they're going to take on that thing is tremendous.

And Dad, you keep looking through the inventory they have here.

Again, I've sorted it by days on market, oldest.

They have almost 500 new Fords and inventory at this particular dealership.

And you can see that many of them are 24s that have been sitting for well over a year.

We've got a Ford Escape here in Phil and one of our team members back at CarEdge.com saying that the dealer discount back on their website is over $14,000 on Saddle's Escape.

So it's really interesting to see here.

You can look at it in the macro, which is the 11% drop in their profit per vehicle.

Then you can look at it at the micro, holy cow.

Ford Expedition 2024, $85,000 MSRP, 446 days on the market.

No wonder their profit per vehicle is going down.

And to be very explicit here, if you are an absolute deal hunter through and through, this is the exact work you need to be doing.

Or obviously pay us and we'll do it, but this is the exact work you need to be doing to get the absolute best deal.

Because these are the vehicles that that sales manager, to your point, dad, is desperate to get rid of.

You literally said you're going to be begging for mercy, not to be fired for having these vehicles.

Absolutely.

And I understand how aged vehicles can sort of kind of get lost at a dealership that has over 500 new vehicles in stock.

You know, it just, it can happen.

I mean, you know, if you don't see it, you don't realize it, you know, if you're not checking your inventory on a daily basis to see the age of your inventory.

Well, number one, shame on that new car manager.

Number two, even greater shame on the general manager.

But I have got to believe from a corporate perspective that the regional vice president might be begging to keep his job.

If someone above him looks at it and goes, what the hell is going on at Wade Ford?

I mean, what are we doing here?

You, you can't have.

Okay, well, I won't, I won't say you can have because they do have, but you should never allow your inventory, your new car or pre-owned inventory to get that aged.

The secret in running a dealership is managing your inventory and being on top of the inventory, how, how long the vehicles have been sitting.

That is your main responsibility, especially as a new car manager, is to know that and to take the necessary steps so that you can alleviate yourself of those aged vehicles.

So again, folks, look at it at the macro.

We've got the largest dealership group in the world, 11% decline in profitability.

That's what happens when car dealers can't sell expensive cars.

They're going to feel it in their bottom line.

And then in the micro, all you have to do is go to Lithia's website and use the dealer filter back on the car edge website.

And you can start to identify instantly, instantly what vehicles they're most desperate to get rid of and the ones that you can negotiate the most on.

Now, Dan, let's come back here to the chat for a moment.

We've got from Dan C. Pops is correct.

Lithia just bought this Subaru store this month.

Okay. The odds that the one, you know, we do live demos all the time.

The odds that the one we choose is the one where they, I thought we had a bug on my website.

No, everything's working.

As soon as I saw that, you know, the number of days and the amount, it just, in my mind, it said, okay, somebody just sold that store to Lithia.

And this is their initial allocation because what manufacturers do, just so you know.

Please.

When dealerships change hands and the manufacturer has to approve the sale.

And trust me, they're approving the sale when it's Lithia's buying it.

But part of the deal when that happens is the manufacturer agrees to a one-time large inventory adjustment.

In other words, they're going to send them extra cars to help them find the volume and the profits to help pay for the expense of having acquired

the store.

When the Penske organization in Scottsdale, we moved to North Scottsdale.

I mean, we were supposed to get like an extra 350 cars for having built a new dealership.

So yeah, when I saw, okay, their oldest car is five days, many of those vehicles could be older and probably are older.

But they're new to Lithia at that store.

So interesting.

So when it changed names, boom, they start the clock again.

Dad, this is from Jerry, one of our car edge concierges.

Manufacturers first poop on you, but you still need to manage those out.

I bring up Jerry in part, Dad, because if you are not getting a free consultation call to see if the concierge car buying service is right for you,

you'll never have the chance to work with the wonderful Jerry, 48 years of experience.

And Jerry's been in this industry for a long, long time.

Loves helping folks out across all aspects of car buying, but in particular, at least he's even got my dad beat.

Well, I will say this, Jerry has forgotten more about the car business than I'll ever know.

Has forgotten?

Yes.

What do you think?

I mean, he is so incredibly knowledgeable.

I look up to Jerry because of his vast experience.

He's forgotten more.

Well, because he knew more to begin with.

And he's forgotten more than I'll ever know.

And he's still heads above me when it comes to knowledge.

You don't see what you're going for, but I don't think it was one of your...

Okay, well...

He's forgotten more.

You're like giving a backhanded compliment when I think that's not your intent.

No, I'm giving a front-handed compliment.

Let me know in the chat.

Compliment.

It's an expression.

All right.

That's on me, pups.

Well, no.

I just took a count of duty for it.

I just said it's on me.

I even see you're a young man.

When you get older, you'll understand it.

I've been saying, there we go.

Yeah.

There you go.

Yeah.

No, I've never heard that one.

Don't think I'm living under a rock, but okay.

All right.

Well, perhaps it's not a rock.

Maybe it's a boulder.

All right.

It's a compliment.

I've learned.

All right, dad.

Shall we continue on?

We shall.

I think we should.

We've got a very kind contribution here.

Trust us solely, Joe.

82, thank you.

Appreciate it.

What is the supply on forerunners doing one to 2025 SR five?

So the beauty and the curse of what we've built back on the car edge car search is

everything's geo-specific.

So I think right now, yeah, we're still in Grandview, Missouri.

So we can play around with this.

And let's do it.

I don't need nationwide though.

Let's just do within 100 miles.

What are we looking forward to out of Toyota?

What was it?

The, the, the, I, I formally, yeah.

Was it a forerunner?

An SR?

It's on the screen, pops.

Where?

At the bottom.

Oh, there is forerunners.

Yeah.

25 SR five.

You're funny, man.

All right.

Let's look at the SR five.

So again, blessing and curse of the car edge machine.

I mean, we're still sorted by days on market oldest.

So in this particular area, I guess this was around Kansas city, dad.

The oldest ones, 92 days, 86 days.

It's not like they've been sitting for a long, long time, but then let's click into it.

102 days supply.

That's actually for a Toyota, man.

That's high.

Yeah, it is.

That's actually really high.

Yeah.

I encourage everyone to look at that market data on vehicles for their own region.

That's, that's, you need to know what it is where you're, where you live, where you're,

where you're planning on shopping.

And then that could, that could encourage you to increase the area in which you're willing

to shop.

All right.

So I got the explanation.

It's a huge compliment.

It means the guy knows so much stuff that your dad doesn't even know as much as that guy

forgot.

Okay.

I get it now.

There you have it.

I thought you were making a joke about Jerry being old.

I was like.

No, no, no.

You forgot.

I am so sincere when I say I truly luck up the Jerry because Jerry, Jerry has so much

more experience in the, and you know, I spent 43 years in it, but, and I've managed dealerships

and I've been a new car manager, I've been a finance guy, you know, I've, I've, I've

done it all, but, but Jerry has done it all and more.

And, and he just, he is a plethora of, of automotive knowledge that I only wish I had.

You know, I, I can sit here and, and, and go over things and make it sound like I know

what I'm talking about.

Jerry could do it and he could make it really easy for you to understand.

That's the difference.

All right.

Pops, let's end today's show with something that honestly, I cannot believe it.

I did not see this coming.

Ford dad has more recalls.

We're up to 126 recalls.

This was 123.

What was that yesterday?

Two days ago?

Two days ago.

All right.

So we are up to 126 recalls.

Now.

Yes.

This most recent recall.

Yes.

It impacts 1.5 million vehicles, rear view camera display.

We, we just, I don't even, I don't even know, man, like we're not trying to pick on them.

I'm not trying to pick on them.

No.

And I won't pick because I believe these are older vehicles.

These are, these are pre Jim Farley.

So that would be pre JF.

So, yeah, yeah, these are, these are, these are well before Jim Farley's days, but, but

I'm pretty sure Jim Farley is overseeing a time that I don't know, seven or eight years

from now, when we're looking at the recalls, it'll be for all the crap they're building

today.

I mean, no matter when it was from, it's just like, yes, remarkable.

It is.

It's remarkable.

They just run away week in, week out with so many recalls.

Like we make light of it at this point, but they have, I mean, compare Ford to Mercedes

Benz, 16 recalls to 126 Honda, 16 recalls to 126.

The Mercedes CA, which is, which is 40.

It's just nuts.

Yeah.

It is.

And, and, you know, the, the all time record for recalls in a year prior to this year was

I think 69, 69 and it was GM held the record that year.

But this is, this is so much more than anyone has ever seen you before.

Um, it's, it's, it's literally frightening and, and what's even more frightening, if

I may.

Sure.

The average age of automobiles on the road today are 14 and a half years old.

Now, many of these Fords that are being recalled are 12 and 13 and 14 and 10 years old.

Um, it is, I guess the longer we keep the vehicles on the road, the greater the likelihood

at some point they're going to end up being recalled.

And, and the real problem becomes that Ford doesn't have the current customer information

to notify the customer that owns some of these vehicles.

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Yeah.

Recalls keep coming over there at the blue oval.

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Yeah.

Yes.

Let's do it again tomorrow.

Um, that's my plan.

Yes.

Absolutely.

Uh, tomorrow is Thursday.

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It seems like yesterday.

It can't really be four years.

Can it?

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Happy for them.

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Love you too, handsome.

See you all back here tomorrow, ladies and gentlemen.

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Car Dealers Can't Sell Expensive Cars & They're FINALLY Feeling IT | Episode 948

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