Car Dealers Can't Sell Overpriced Cars & The Car Market Is Starting to Crumble! | Episode 923

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Now, Deb, the big story this morning, there are a couple pieces to this.

Car dealers can't sell overpriced cars, and the car market is starting to crumble.

Now, wait a second.

The big story today is the word shock, we're shocking, we're shocked is not in the headline for today's show.

Don't know what happened, but things are crumbling.

Things are crumbling.

Here's the deal.

Two different headlines I want to look at today.

The first is Yossi from a CDG car dealership guy.

He had an interview with Senator Bernie Moreno.

He did.

And on that interview, Senator Bernie Moreno said, quote, if you have an electric vehicle in your inventory, get rid of that thing.

We know that there was an immense amount of pressure on car dealers right now to liquidate EV inventory.

So that's one part of this crumbling that we're seeing and the overpriced cars that won't sell.

The other is that we've got mixed signals on the inventory front when it comes to the new car market.

Day's supply of inventory has actually gone up month over month significantly.

And we're going to dig into this analysis from Cox Automotive.

But the too long didn't read is that it's showing that the first half of this year, there was a big uptick

of consumers buying cars in preparation for automotive tariffs.

And now that we're in the midst of that, it seems like a lot of brands are struggling to actually get their inventory mix in a good place.

They've oversupplied their dealers with inventory.

But let's start right on that EV side.

Senator Bernie Moreno on this podcast saying, if you've got an EV dealers, get rid of that thing.

I think we're about to see the EV market in the United States crumble to a degree.

Well, can I ask one question? Why do we put more stock in him saying it than when I say it?

Okay.

Who cares?

So he is a flimmer car dealer and he is currently a United States senator.

Yep.

Okay.

We've been saying that for weeks now.

So don't make it about him.

Just make it about the point.

The point is that today is the 12th.

I believe there's what, 18 more days left in this month on September 30th.

That becomes the end of the $7,500 federal tax credit on EVs and certain plug-in hybrids that would qualify for it.

So it would stand to reason as a dealer that if you have EVs on your lot,

it's going to become much harder to sell those come October 1st than it is September 30th.

There's a $7,500 disadvantage for the customer come October 1st.

And this is just a guess.

But my guess is the dealers who already are not making any money selling EVs.

There's very little margin in EVs.

So having said that, the dealer certainly can't afford to eat $7,500 that is disappearing.

The manufacturers are all losing money on every EV that they produce and wholesale to their dealers.

My guess is that their pockets are deeper than dealers.

So they're probably going to have to reach somewhere into their pockets to cover,

if not all of that $7,500, some of that $7,500,

but there's no guarantee that that's going to happen.

So if you're a customer or if you're a dealer, you're going to work your ass off

trying to get those out of your inventory by September 30th.

So electric vehicles, a small subset of the auto market.

However, an area where I think crumbling is a totally fair statement,

you remove the $7,500 subsidy because that's what it is.

It's a subsidy from the government.

You remove that, well, that segment of the market starts to crumble

because of sitting senator saying, if you're a car dealer, get rid of your EVs,

do it now, do it before the tax credits go away.

The other story is the broader new car market for the car industry.

I'm going to read this out then.

Inventory trends a tale of two halves.

Again, this comes from Cox Automotive.

The first half of 2025 saw a clear decline in inventory from January through May

driven by an initial rush of sales amid widespread media coverage of potential tariff-induced price heights.

Consumers move quickly to secure vehicles before anticipated cost increases

leading to a sharp drawdown in available supply.

That was the first half in a few years.

From May onward, however, the inventory story shifted into a steady state.

A large part of the continued downward pressure on supply can be attributed to manufacturers

not replenishing their EV models as well as being highly disciplined with underperforming models

and those directly impacted by tariffs.

Meanwhile, more successful automakers, excuse me, more successful models

have been slowly recovering in inventory suggesting a strategic recalibration by automakers

to focus on profitability and demand alignment.

There's a lot of jargon in there.

What I'm taking away from it is that automakers sold a lot of cars in the midst of incoming tariffs.

Now we're on the other side of that and if I scroll up here,

day's supply rose to 77 up 4.1% from August.

We're starting to see new car inventory creep back up again.

Yes, which is weakness for the auto industry and not all brands are made the same.

We're going to break that down in just a second, but I'm starting to see some weakness here.

Well, and the other thing we already know that some manufacturers,

and I'll name one off the top of my head, Mazda said,

okay, there's very little profit in the Mazda3 and the CX30.

So they have cut production or cut the amount of those vehicles that they're willing to bring into the country

in favor of increasing inventory of the CX70s and the CX90s

because they are higher profit margin vehicles.

Why are they doing that?

Because they are taking a huge hit on tariff costs and the way to offset that is,

well, only wholesale to your dealers, your highest profit margin vehicle.

So let's reread this line and then I'm going to share a comment from Igor in the chat then.

Yes.

Let's reread this line that says clearly.

Yes.

Meanwhile, more successful models have been slowly recovering in inventory

suggesting a strategic recalibration by automakers to focus on your word profitability.

And demand alignment.

Here's where that braids down.

Yes.

You have a comment like this coming from Igor who's at the wholesale dealer auctions today.

Yes.

We're seeing today lots of Mazda CX70P Heves and CX90P Heves at the auction.

Some are with less than 500 miles on them.

Brand new and dealers are dumping them.

They can be the more profitable models for Mazda.

They can be the more profitable models for the automaker.

Yeah.

There's no demand for them.

But here's the good news.

The good news is Mazda already made their money.

They built that car.

They shipped that car.

They wholesale that car to their customer, which is a dealership.

It is the dealership's responsibility to figure out how to take that product that they bought,

that nobody seems to really want.

It's their responsibility to figure out how, A, to get it off their books and hopefully

do it in a profitable manner.

But as far as the manufacturer's concerned, they've already reaped their reward.

But how long can that, you know, Mary go around.

We used that analogy yesterday.

How long can I Mary go around?

I'll just keep going around in circles.

Not that long before the dealers say, I'm not taking any more allocations, although

the CX70s and CX90s, for example, or of course got some other insights here, which you

really appreciate.

Porsche P Heves models and Mercedes EV models are getting dumped by dealers.

So again, if I'm the automaker and maybe these vehicles are my higher profit margin

vehicles.

But yeah, a case of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, a lot of those are high profit

vehicles.

They're just battery electric vehicles.

We know they're not.

But the hybrid vehicles typically are.

Well, this is an example of, okay, the dealers, we can just sell it to them and they'll figure

it out.

But eventually the dealers are going to say no more.

Well, yeah.

Not to quote Roberto Duran against Sugar Ray Leonard when he said, no moss, no

moss.

Yeah, at a certain point, dealers are going to say to their manufacturers, to their

factory partners.

No, I can't and I won't take anymore.

I keep taking them and I'm not making any money selling them and it's costing me money to

carry them.

So at a certain point, dealers will push back and they'll just say, no moss.

You're not sending me anymore.

And then either the manufacturer is going to have to figure out a way to help the

dealer move that inventory by increasing incentives or whatever it's going to take.

But there will be a time where there won't be those increased incentives and the demand

won't be there and the dealers will struggle trying to get rid of.

That's the initial crumbling that I'm trying to call out in today's title.

Let's come to your dad to the chat.

Thank you, Chris.

Really appreciate it.

Yes.

Thank you for the kind contribution.

Thank you.

I'm going to buy you a coffee later.

It's Friday, guys.

Yes.

I know that this is a guess, but do you first see manufacturers like Kia incentives increasing,

decreasing or staying flat for EVs after September 30th?

I think they're going to increase.

How could they not?

Maybe they stay static for a month, but they're going to have to in.

I think at some point, they're going to have to do something.

If the federal government isn't going to offer a tax incentive to the ultimate

consumer or a tax credit, then somebody's going to have to do it.

If that's what it takes to move the metal.

Will we see the increase in incentives right away?

I would doubt it.

I think it takes a month.

A month of no EV sales, and then they wake up in November heading into December.

My thinking would be that they're already thinking about how for the end of the year

push that there will be increased incentives, but probably not until November, December

in order to do that.

Now, then it becomes, okay, come January, then what do we do?

We're in 2026.

The full model year changeover has happened.

At higher price points.

What do we do then?

How do we absorb a $7,500 hit on every EV that we're trying to sell?

I think two things are going to happen.

Ultimately, when we get into next year, you will see a recalibration to use the term

in Cox's report of the amount of EVs manufacturers will produce for the US market.

I think that number will go down dramatically.

I think you'll see some enhancement of incentives in order to try to move the few

EVs that they're building, but I don't think that they will build EVs in the same quantities.

That they have in the past.

Again, that's a relatively small subset of the whole new car market, but we're going to break down

some specific brands that are really struggling right now and crumbling significantly.

Before we do, Mark, thank you Mark.

Kind of contribution.

Texas dealers have enough money to pay politicians to ban Tesla direct sales.

I don't think it's just Tesla, excuse me, Texas.

I think car dealers, they might have enough money to do a lot of damage to make sure

that there's no direct sales.

NADA is one of the largest, most powerful lobbying groups here in the United States.

They're headquartered here in Washington, DC.

I mean, dealers are dealers.

They're not going anywhere.

Northern Virginia, I mean.

Northern Virginia, excuse me.

Also, just want to call out here from MCC Aaron, just leased the Mazda CX90 EV.

One take of gas last over 700 miles.

Wow.

I recently had a press vehicle, which is a CX90P, an incredible vehicle.

They had a $10,000, I think they still do have a $10,000 lease incentive on it.

Yes.

They did it $60,000.

No, am I leasing it with a $10,000 discount from Mazda?

Okay.

Well, plus the discounts you're going to get from your dealer.

Exactly.

Yes.

I know.

There are deals.

When we speak about these particular vehicles or the brands that we're about to talk about

in a second here, deals, deals, deals, deals.

Again, from the reminder, caredge.com, we can help you get that deal.

Brand-level inventory discipline and potential strategic shifts.

You ready for this?

Oh, my.

Within the Stellantis portfolio, niche players like Fiat and Alfa Romeo are shrinking inventory.

Whether this signals a broader strategic shift or a potential wind-down of these brands

in the US remains to be seen.

I would know it.

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you know having a trusted partner makes all the difference.

That's why hands down you count on Granger for auto-reordering.

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at the start of their shift.

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Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Granger.com or just stop by.

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You think they're done with Fiat and Alfa?

Where's the red, where's the white flag?

I mean, you know, they are waving the white flag.

You know, and let's face it, you know, it's not like Fiat sells a lot of cars.

When you look at the number of cars that Fiat sells on a quarterly basis,

it's in the hundreds, it's not even in the thousands.

Okay, when you look at what Alfa Romeo does,

you know, there was a splash when they came back into the U.S. market.

What was it, 10 years ago or so?

And so there was a little bit of a splash and there was a little bit of an uptick

in people going, yeah, how about an Alfa Romeo?

How about one of those Juilliers or Estelvio or Quattrofolio?

And but the bloom has come off the rose.

There is no real market for an Alfa Romeo.

It is such a niche brand in this country that if they are going to strategically look

at how many they import for the United States,

just wave the damn flag. We're done. We're done.

It's pretty simple.

Okay, so that's another example of some crumbling.

Again, a rather small segment of the market, but still some crumblage going on.

Let me continue.

I like that.

Their reduced presence could open the door for Stalantis to reallocate resources

towards more competitive segments or emerging technologies.

The same can be said for other low volume import focused brands like

Infinity and Jaguar.

Jaguar, as we know, is in the midst of a strategic rethink.

Day supply is more than twice the industry average right now.

We'll look at that in a second.

Meanwhile, brands like Toyota, Honda and Kia are seemingly holding production

in balance with demand.

Those are the manufacturers that have kind of the most pricing power right now

because their dealers are not drastically over supplied or under supplied.

Chevy and Mazda are showing strong inventory discipline as well.

So this chart, what you're seeing here, folks, is for the month of August,

what brands have the amount of day supply each brand has.

So I'm going to remove the comments from the stage for a quick second here

so we can look at it all together.

The industry average is a 77 days supply of inventory.

77 days supply of inventory.

That means it would take 77 days for the new car market

to sell all 2.8 million vehicles based on current sales rates.

Lexus has a 32 day supply.

Toyota has a 36 day supply.

Honda down there with a 52 day supply.

Those three manufacturers, their dealers do not have a surplus of inventory.

And it's been that story for years.

Yes, yes.

Now you look at the other end of the spectrum, Ram, 136 days supply.

That's gotten worse.

Yeah, it has gotten worse recently.

So if I'm a Ram dealer.

And I believe, I believe the average transaction price

for a new Ram pickup truck today

is a little over $65,000.

By the way, which is less than for the Ford F series,

which was a little over 66 or 67,000.

Well, look where Ford is on this list.

That Ford has.

Where is it?

A 101 day supply of inventory.

Yes.

And they're selling down their EVs right now.

Yeah, yeah.

Think about that.

Ram doesn't even have EVs to be selling down.

They postponed the production of their Ram Rath.

I think it was the Ram Rev.

Yeah.

That Chrysler, 118 days supply, Jeep, 117 days supply.

The top three worst performing manufacturers right now

are all under the Stalantis umbrella.

And we know these manufacturers still have a lot of

2024 new cars still on their lot.

Not to mention the fact that 2026s are there.

So more signs of oversupplied over Christ cars not selling

and the continued struggle for many manufacturers in this market.

Totally different story if you're Lexus, Toyota and Honda.

But if you're these brands over to the right,

I would say anyone with over a hundred days supply.

So we're looking at Dodge, Volkswagen, Ford, Mini, Buick,

Lincoln, Land Rover, Jeep Chrysler Ram.

Those are your brands where if you're managing that store

dead, I mean, what are you doing?

You're just, you're trying to sell them cheap.

Yeah.

Well, unfortunately because of the manufacturer,

first I'm stacking them deep.

And then I'm trying to sell them cheap.

Okay.

I remember it was a little over two years ago.

Okay.

We went up the Staten Island.

We did.

Yeah.

We went to a Jeep Ram deal.

Yeah.

Okay.

CDJR, Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram.

And I realized, you know, Staten Island, you know,

there's things that get crowded.

Yeah.

I had never seen an automobile lot as congested as that

was, and then they had off-site lots as well.

But the on-site lots, I mean, cars were just stacked everywhere.

And that story for two years, three years now.

And so I don't see, for some of these brands,

I don't see that getting any better.

And for the past two years or so, they haven't really been,

I mean, we can go back a couple months and we can look at

those days supply and we'll see that Ram made significant

improvements.

But then apparently they started shipping 26 model year

trucks and, well, the inventory has gone back up again.

Jeep had made significant improvements in their

inventory levels.

Jeep's inventory levels have gone back up again.

So it is, you know, I realize it's a balancing act,

but they don't ever really seem for these still Stalantis

brands to find the correct balance.

It's always, we're way up, we're way up here because we're

so far out of balance when they need to be here.

And I don't know how that Stalantis...

Yeah, they need to go up that.

Right now they're at the top of that friggin mountain

trying to figure out how to unload all the cars and trucks

that got them there.

Okay.

They need to be down in the meadows.

We're going to send you an invoice, Stalantis.

All right.

So let's do a live experiment.

Oh, I love live experiments.

I love live experiments.

Yes.

We're in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Yeah, a lovely place.

A lovely place, Scottsdale, Arizona.

Y'all can do this too.

Back on thecaredge.com car search.

Let's look at the Ram situation right now.

You Ram inventory and just the level set here.

Yes.

So this is what's nice about the caredge car search.

You get all sorts of data.

All right.

So let's see.

In Scottsdale, Arizona.

Yes.

The average used car sales for $32,775.

We don't...

We're just above the national app.

We're talking on new cars.

Yes.

The average new car sales for $61,436.

Yes.

There's a 107 days supply of new cars available in Scottsdale.

So let's keep that in mind.

Yes.

As we start to click into some of these vehicles.

Ram 2500, MSRP of $84,079,000.

Let's find a Ram 1500.

These are also 2026s.

Here's a 2025.

Well, there was a 1500.

Here's a 2024.

Okay.

There was the 1500.

Right here.

Yeah.

Okay.

So let's look at it.

That's a 2026 Ram 1500 pickup Laramie with an MSRP of $78,000.

And I realized that Scottsdale is considered a well-heeled area.

And it's right next to Paradise Valley, Arizona, which is really like the top 1% of the 1%.

But my guess is those people that live in Paradise Valley, they ain't driving Ram pickup

trucks even for 78 grand.

It's just...

That's a lot of money for a pickup.

I get astonished every time we look at these numbers, but it's staggering to me that this

is the type of inventory you send to your dealers and expect them to sell.

Well, then you wonder why Ram shows up with 136 days supply of inventory.

Yeah.

Nearly a two-time amount of...

Of what?

Industry average.

Yeah.

So a couple of things to call out here.

Yes.

It's higher than the average new car transaction price in Scottsdale.

You might get by about $17,000.

The other is the invoice price is $72,994.

There's a lot of profit built into this vehicle.

The reason they don't sell at MSRP.

Another thing I want to call out is we can get the actual window sticker right here

as well.

I'm not going to load it right now, but you can back on the Car Edge website.

And the moment of truth, dad, there it is.

There's a 4,545 days supply.

Let's sit down and let's sit with us.

Of this vehicle in within 100 mile radius of Scottsdale, Arizona,

and the reason being...

Yes, they just came out.

Is that only two of them have sold in the last 45 days in 100 mile radius

and there are 202 on dealer lots, right?

Yes.

This...

Think about this for a second.

Ram we know has an oversupply.

Could go back to that prior page.

Yes.

They have stalled the bringing out of 2026 model year vehicles

and instead focused on trying to sell the 2025s and 2024s.

Yes.

And we know this because not only are they doing it at Ram,

but Jeep also has incentives on their 2024s still.

Yes.

Actually in their 2025s.

Yes.

But what happens when you start to ship the 2026s,

but the 24s and 25s haven't sold,

you end up with a 4,545 days supply of inventory.

Well, but there's a couple factors.

That's crazy.

But here, there's a couple factors.

One is that they just came out.

Of course.

Two, anybody that's going and looking at a Ram 1500,

and they go to these dealerships,

the dealership is thinking to themselves,

I got a year before the 2027s come out.

Mr. Customer, you want a deal?

I mean, you want to...

Buy the 24.

Buy the 2025.

Exactly.

You don't have a really good deal.

I can give you a hell of a deal on that 2024 or that 2025.

You want a deal on this 2026?

Come see me in nine months.

Let's do this.

So, Dad, this vehicle, let's come down here.

This vehicle's at Air Park Dodge Crystarchy.

Yeah, I know exactly where that is.

So one of the things you can do on the Car Edge Car Search

is you can actually search by dealership.

Yes.

Air Park Dodge Crystarchy.

Yeah.

So now we are just looking at new inventories.

They have 248 vehicles in inventory.

Yeah.

Humor me for a second here.

248 new ones in inventory.

I'm going to give her to the dealership

and I'm going to go to the year filter here.

Yeah.

And now what I'm curious is how many are 2026s?

160 or 2026s.

Okay.

Oops, I got to change it.

2025.

Yeah.

85 or 2025.

So to your point, they are much more motivated

to sell the 2025s than the 2026s.

Yeah.

Trust me, I know I have dealers think.

I know how the sales managers think.

I know how the salesman think.

And they think that if you're looking for a deal,

we'll give you one.

It's just not going to be on this 2026.

Okay.

They just came out.

You want a deal?

You have to take one of our 2025s or one of our 2024s.

We don't...

The dealership at this point doesn't feel compelled

to be moving off the price of the 2026s just yet

until they rid themselves of those boat anchors

that are sitting on the back of the lot.

And here's the scary part.

What's that?

Well, in Scottsdale, you know,

what's the closest, like, saguaro lake?

I mean, you got a way to go

before you really need those boat anchors.

But they got plenty of them.

Yeah.

They really do.

Yeah.

They pretty much cornered the market.

I just wanted to check.

I went over to all of the out-the-door price quotes

that our AI is getting when it reaches out to dealerships.

And here's an example of one.

I mean, you're getting 10% off MSRP,

obviously, in this case, the dealership's adding back on stuff.

But when you're looking at a 2025,

we don't even have a single OTD.

Wait, wait.

We're getting even more of them.

There's rebates.

Yeah.

So you're getting 10% off from the dealership

and then $7,500 in rebates.

Like, they're kind of, I don't know,

I don't know the appropriate term to use here.

They're trying to get rid of these things.

They really are.

They're trying to make back some profit, obviously,

which needs to negotiate.

But one of the things I was just checking,

we don't have a single 2026 RAM 1500 OTD yet.

And every single day, we're contacting thousands of dealerships,

only 2025.

I think that speaks volumes to what you're saying here.

You know, having spent 43 years running dealerships.

Yes.

I know, I mean...

That's crazy.

I would tell my sales managers and my sales people,

if your customer wants a deal on this car, it just arrived.

They want a deal.

They can go find one of the 2024s or one of the 2025s

and I will make them such a good deal, their head will spin.

Okay?

But if they insist upon buying this 2026,

they're going to make my head spin

because they're going to pay us money.

I mean, Deb, $15,000 off of a $75,000 truck.

Again, the dealership's trying to add,

you can see it there, this $3,000 family care plan.

But you negotiate that off.

That's all you do.

You negotiate it because you can look at them

and go just between you and I,

I'm not part of the Clay Coolie family.

And I'm not looking to be part.

And no, I'm not bringing potato salad

to the Clay Coolie family picnic.

$15,000 off.

I mean, that's the type of stuff that makes a customer's...

No, absolutely.

I get it.

All right, Deb, we're going to come to the chat.

But before we do a friendly reminder,

we can help y'all out with anything, remember?

Anything?

Not anything, but...

Car related.

Anything car related.

Okay.

We've got the car search,

showing some of the capabilities there today.

For newer use, Car's Car Edge Insights,

the tools you need to get the best deal.

Our research center,

What's My Car Worth?

Insurance Warranty.

You've got your AI negotiator

that can be doing a lot of the legwork for you.

Yeah.

Check that out, back at CarEdge.com.

And let us save you some time,

save you some energy,

get you the real prices of these things.

Earlier in the show from Chris Dad.

Thank you, Chris.

Coffee for you too, Zach.

Thanks for all your help.

Appreciate it.

Really appreciate it.

You know, the place I went for the coffee,

$3.

It's not a good spot.

But I don't know where you can buy coffee

in a major city.

For $3.

You know, because everybody,

it's, you know,

it's this guy's roastery

or this, you know,

Starbucks.

Oh, it's six bucks a cup of coffee.

$3 and three cents.

Okay.

Now, granted,

they were out on half and half.

And my only other choice was 2%

milk, which is why don't say,

here's some cold water,

pour it in there.

You know, because

I'm just,

like, three hours and three cents including the tax.

I thought that was pretty damn good.

So here's the deal, folks.

In about 30 minutes, Dad.

Yeah.

I'm filming an interview with ABC,

the syndicate in Philadelphia.

Oh, okay.

And I feel like an idiot.

I'm wearing a Dodger's jersey.

What were you thinking?

I think this has the chance to go viral.

It's going to be,

kid talks about AI car buying in Philly

in a Dodger's jersey.

I think this has a chance.

I think this is a big mistake.

Do I have another shirt here?

No, but I'm pretty sure this is a big, big mistake.

I mean,

I had to protect your ass when we went to an Eagles game

and you were wearing the Arizona Cardinals gear.

Well, it'll certainly be memorable, folks.

So stay tuned.

We're going to be on ABC or I'm going to be on ABC in Philly.

And maybe they'll like me back.

I kind of doubt it after wearing a Dodger's.

You're only going to be on channels,

the 807 channel in Philadelphia one time.

Switch with Ray is what Igor says.

I think this color would look good on there.

Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, absolutely.

Yeah, because you're a fool.

If you think,

you think anybody from Philadelphia is going to pay any attention

to the car edge with you wearing a Dodger's jersey.

All right, folks.

We're back on Monday.

Pops is headed home tomorrow.

I am indeed going to spend more time with,

you're going to spend more time with your granddaughter today

or over there yesterday.

Super fun.

Glad to be able to hang out with my niece,

your granddaughter.

Thank you everyone for tuning in.

If we can help you back on the website,

please check it out.

CarEdge.com

and have a great weekend.

Have a great weekend everybody.

We'll see you back here Monday.

Half marathon.

I'm running it on Sunday.

So hopefully I report back on a successful half marathon

on Monday.

Hopefully.

We're counting on it.

I'm hopeful, man.

Yeah.

See you then.

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Car Dealers Can't Sell Overpriced Cars & The Car Market Is Starting to Crumble! | Episode 923

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