CAR MARKET CRASH 2025 IS COMING | Episode 907

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It's noon here in Ventner City, New Jersey and our nation's capital, Washington, DC.

And this is Car Edge Live for Wednesday, August 20th with your hosts,

me, Ray here in Ventner. Not under flood watch yet, but will be tomorrow.

And Washington, DC. My son, Zach. How are you today, handsome?

Doing pretty good, Dad. Happy August 20th, everyone. Thanks for tuning in and spending some

time with us today. We appreciate it. We've got a sponsor for today's program.

However, before we head there, got to let everyone know it's that time of the month

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The lead story this morning pops. It is the car market crash of 2025 is coming around the

corner. Look at the headline that is leading off in automotive news.

Dealership execs worry about the future auto market dynamics in confidence survey.

Dealership executives confidence in the automotive industry is negative

for the second half of 2025. According to the inaugural automotive news

auto industry competence index, you and I are going to break down the data

from this survey that they conducted. But I just want to be very clear here,

folks, it's not me Zach Shepska from CarEdge saying a car market crash

could be coming in 2025. You saw the headline right there. These dealership executives and the

data that we're going to look at is showing you that there is a weakening confidence in the resiliency

of the auto industry. We'll break it down here, obviously, but it's them, not me. It's them.

Well, it's them who do it on a daily basis and realize that this insanity cannot continue

unchecked. So when you survey some of these dealership executives, they've got to be thinking to

themselves, okay, tariffs are going to have a negative impact. Prices are going to go up.

They're not going up 15, 20%, but if they go up 3 to 5%, 6%, that's quite a bit.

Interest rates might come down. We hope they come down, but if the prices go up and the

interest rates come down a quarter of a point or a half a point, is that enough

lowering of interest rates to compensate for the increase in prices? So yeah, I would think

dealer executives are sitting there going, the rest of the year doesn't look all that good.

Let's look into the data, Dad. Let's break this down for our community because it could

mean better shopping opportunities for consumers as the industry faces some pain. Franchise

dealers and dealership executives carry gloomier expectations for the broader automotive industry

through the second half of 2025 compared with their feelings in June. 56% of franchise dealership

respond and said they are either somewhat or very pessimistic about the industry's overall

health in the next six months. That was shocking to me when I read it, Dad. More than half of

those that represent the retail auto industry, franchise retail auto industry, are saying

that they are pessimistic either somewhat or very about the health of their industry. I mean, that's

what else do you need? Is there a car market crash coming? I think 56% of the people that

respond didn't think that maybe there is. Yeah, and you know why they think that? Because

they're dealing with customers every day and they understand the difficulty that customers are

having when it comes to trying to buy a car and they understand the difficulties that dealerships,

not necessarily Toyota dealerships, but other dealerships are having when it comes to trying to

facilitate a transaction between the customer and the dealership. And if prices continue to go up,

at some point, it's the dealerships ultimately that are the ones that are going to take it

in the short. Now, I'm not here crying for the dealerships, but think about it. I mean, they

try and work on certain profit margins. We know, I know, having spent 43 years in retail automotive,

that many, many new car departments are not particularly profitable. In a lot of mass

market dealerships, new car departments are the, what's the word I'm looking for,

the loss leader that they use to be able to bring people in so that they can make money in other

areas, parts, service, finance and insurance. Okay, so it wasn't until COVID that we really saw

new car departments become really profitable. I mean, like incredibly profitable. And that's

because there was a shortage of cars and prices skyrocketed. Well, we are now at a time where

prices skyrocketed so much. And they're going to continue to go up because of outside pressure

through tariffs, that it is going to become even more difficult moving forward to keep

this train's momentum. Absolutely, dad. And let's take a peek here and look at some of the

areas where these folks that are operating in the auto industry are saying they're feeling uncertain.

You can see here, we're looking at how confident they are in the second quarter versus how confident

they think they'll be in the future, their future confidence. And you can see a significant

difference here. So FNI profitability, a lot of dealers anticipate that to get worse,

fixed ops profitability expected to get worse. Here you said it, dad, new vehicle gross

profit margins expected to get worse, used vehicle profitability and acquisition

expected to get worse, staffing levels and hiring environment expected to get worse,

customer financing environment expected to get worse, and inventory availability and turn rate

all expected to get worse. This is not one of those mumbo jumbo headlines from CarEdge,

you know, boy who cried wolf. I know I come out all the time with hyperbolic headlines

and typically I can pull a thread to connect the dots. This is the industry coming out with

a survey and it is highly pessimistic about what the future holds for them. That again,

for us as consumers, creates an opportunity. If you can time your purchase, again, we always

talk about end of month and quarter end of the end of the year. I mean, this is really

an opportunity to be savvy and smart as you watch potentially a little bit of a crash

happen in retail auto. But, you know, is it really an opportunity? And here's what I

mean by that question. If the prices of the vehicles have increased

unreasonably over the last four and five years in comparison to where they had been,

even if there's somewhat of a crash in the industry, are the savings going to be

enough to compensate for the excess price increases that we've seen? So that's where you

really have to weigh whether or not it's an opportunity. Now, if we think to ourselves

that history suggests that prices will always continue to go up, and that seems to usually

happen, then, you know, we very well might be able to look at some of these things and go,

yeah, it's an opportunity. If we think that ultimately they'll just be this massive crash

and a resetting of everything, you know, then the opportunity would be after the massive crash.

I'm not hoping for a massive crash. Let me just say that. That wouldn't be good for anybody.

So I think the industry finds itself in a tough situation moving forward.

I think we see it a little bit right now, Dad, as we head into Labor Day. Justin on our team,

I don't know if the guides published yet, back at Carriage.com slash guides, it will be today.

He compiled by hand the best lease deals out there right now, and these

manufacturers are stepping up big time from a payment perspective. I mean,

Dad, Mazda even increased the amount that they're offering on the Mazda CX-90P have

for money down, but they're now advertising a $199 a month payment for a 24-month lease.

So, you know, they're stepping up on the money factor to try and really inflate things,

to try and help the consumers. So I agree with you that no one wants to see a major,

major crash because that would just be bad news for the whole ecosystem, the consumer,

the industry, everything. That being said, the pain that they are seeing on the horizon

is influencing the decision-making they're making today to provide better deals. Speaking of

better deals, I want to comment one thing really quickly here, Pops, and then we need to thank

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Absolutely. So, dad, back to the poll here. I want to pull up some more data. Let me get

on the screen. So, they also asked these dealers, looking ahead six months,

how do you expect conditions for your organization in the following areas to change?

Inventory availability and turn rate, dad, somewhat worse or much worse,

33% of dealers think the inventory availability and turn rate is going to get worse. Now,

let's talk about that in conjunction with the fact that 33% of dealers also say new vehicle

gross profit margins are going to get worse. What does that mean, dad? What does that mean that

they think inventory availability and turn rate and new vehicle gross profit margins

are going to be worse? Well, I think what these executives are saying is

it's not so much inventory availability as it will be turn rate. And the turn rate is how

quickly you move your inventory. And I think what they're thinking is that there is going

to be a significant slowdown in sales because, well, let's see, EV sales will probably fall off

a cliff come October 1st because the $7,500 federal tax credits going away. The price of the vehicles

will be going up, so that'll make even fewer vehicles affordable for even fewer Americans.

So, I think what their concern is, is that whatever on-hand inventory they have

is going to take longer to sell. And because they feel as if it will take longer to sell and it will

sit for a longer period of time, their costs associated with financing that inventory that

can sit longer will go up, meaning that their profit margins on the new car side of things

will decline. That's not normally a recipe for long-term success. That's a recipe for

better opportunities price-wise for overpriced vehicles for consumers out there.

Yeah, that's exactly what it suggests that. And so, obviously, there's the concern

that these dealers have and it's showing up in this data. The other areas,

perhaps for their showing concern, used vehicle profitability and acquisition

conditions. We've been talking about this for a long time, that the availability of

quality used cars is not good and 21% of dealers think it's going to get worse. Most,

56% think it's going to stay the same. So, it's a little bit of a rosier outlook

than the new vehicle gross profit margin and the turn rate for available inventory.

But I think this is another area that you and I have been harping on for a long time.

You think, however, I want to be very clear that we are going to face challenges here

through the remainder of this decade into the 2030s. So, it's not like a bubble is going to burst in

the used car market tomorrow. There are repercussions that are happening for the next,

call it five-plus years as a result of what happened due to the chip shortage and the

pandemic back in 2020, 2021, et cetera. So, obviously, these dealership executives feeling

really bearish on the new car side of things, but they're also feeling bearish on the used

car side of things, which makes a lot of sense. Well, we talked about it the other day where

the thought is that three-year-old vehicles today are a much better bargain than they were

three years ago. And the rationale behind it was, well, the spread between what it's

selling for today in comparison to what it sold for as a new car, it's a wider spread.

It doesn't make it a better value to any degree. What we're experiencing, perhaps,

is a return to normal depreciation. But we are starting at such a high point

that they don't seem to depreciate fast enough so that it impacts most people trying to buy cars.

Also, KVB just put up this data, average used car prices actually rose in July. So,

are they depreciating? I don't know. It's like once a month we see depreciation,

then it bounces back, then it goes down. I think the long-term repercussions of what

happened during the pandemic and the lack of availability of new vehicles, what was it? It

was like 15 million vehicles globally were not produced during that time. That's why used car

prices will continue to stay inflated and high, and we will go month to month with maybe

some decline somewhere. Generally, they're just going to stay high.

What it means is that there were 15 million new vehicles that weren't produced,

which translates into 15 million new vehicles that weren't retailed. If you assume that two-thirds

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So no wonder dealers have concerns about used car acquisition.

Well, no wonder there is a continued shortage of quality used cars.

We know that today the average miles on an average used car being sold today is just a tick under

73,000. That's probably 20, 25,000 miles more than it had been four or five years ago.

So the mileage is higher, the quality, the condition of the vehicles is a little lower,

but yet the pricing is still highly elevated in comparison to where it should be.

Few more data points that give me pause about why there could potentially be a market reset.

This comes from money.com. They just pulled some interesting data points together.

Only two US-built models under $30,000 remain. I thought this was fascinating,

that especially amidst all that's going on with tariffs. Look at this.

Experts say new cars under $20,000 will soon be extinct from the US market and options

under $30,000 are also becoming harder to find. Currently, the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla

are the only US-assembled models left with list prices under $30,000. Think about that for a second,

Dad. Most of the vehicles priced under $30,000 are imported in those vehicles, particularly

tend to come from Mexico and South Korea. Korea, excuse me, those countries are still being

tariffed at the highest rate in the auto business is seeing right now. It's just 27.5%.

Experts say that the average car prices could rise as tariffs cost automakers billions.

Automakers, including Ford, have announced price increases for models assembled in Mexico.

Only about 14% of new vehicle inventories priced under $30,000. In the first half of 2019,

a pre-pandemic comparison point, 38% of new car inventories priced under $30,000.

So, I thought that was fascinating, Dad, because we are out of options,

sans-tout right there, right, that actually are produced or final assembly takes place

in the United States at an under $30,000 price point. You and I have talked about

sub-$20,000 price point vehicles. In the same breath, we now need to be talking about

evaporation of sub-$30,000 price point vehicles. Here's the scary part. Five years from now,

we'll be talking about the fact that it'll be difficult to find cars under 40 grand.

That's just the reality. The other reality is, as average prices continue to go up,

average loan terms will continue to get longer and longer. Right now, the average new car loan term

is like 70.2 months. The percentage of people that have 84 months and 96 months loans

are higher than it's ever been. Probably one in five people today would have a car loan

that's 84 months. 22.4% in the second quarter of shoppers that financed a new car went for an

84-month car loan. That's the highest we've ever seen, and it increased from 17.6% to your product.

And it's only going to get worse as prices continue to go up. If you're an executive at

the manufacturing level, and if you are a dealership executive at the dealer level,

you have to be looking at all these various and assorted data points and going,

how are we going to continue to grow our business? What is it going to take

for us to be able to do that? And we know that 85% of the people out there are payment buyers.

And you are beginning to see, and I agree with Jerry 100% here, you are beginning to see

more and more dollars being put into leasing incentive programs so that we can offer people

more people affordable payments. Because if 85% of the people out there are payment buyers,

all they want is a payment that fits in to their monthly budget. And at a certain point,

they won't care whether it is a purchase or whether it is a lease. All they'll care about

is that it fits. And leasing is the way to do that. And leasing helps you build your used car

business because most leases are 24 to 36 months. So like in the case of the Mazda CX-90P have,

those leases are coming back in two years. In most other cases, the leases are coming back

in three years. So that means that there'll be more two and three year old low mileage vehicles

finally available for the used car market again. That is one of the cures for all these

ailments. I just wanted to call out here, Jerry, one of the other, excuse me,

another car edge concierge, we make sure it is done right. We provide leasing support folks like

that. I want to be very clear. So right now as we have this 23% off promotion running

back at CarEdge.com, now is the time to take advantage of this. If you are thinking about leasing,

just click on car buying services right there and work with our team. We've got folks

that are lease experts, which to be clear, leasing is not terribly complex, but it certainly

can be confusing. There are a lot of salespeople that work at dealerships that don't even understand

all that goes into a lease. We've done a lot of videos. Obviously, I didn't know what a lease

was until my dad taught me and we've spent years working on educating folks about it. So

let us help you on the lease side and dad, Justin over on the caredge.com

slash guides part of the website. He's got a new article coming out soon this afternoon. He compiled

all of the different lease offers from all the manufacturers. He picked the best one

from each OEM and there are some pretty aggressive ones in here, dad,

Acura with the ADX, Alfa Romeo with the Tonale, the Audi Q4 E-tron. Then you can be

leasing a 2025 Audi Q4 E-tron for under 300 bucks a month for 24 months. You've got to put 42,

44 down at signing. But still, there are some really Buick here, dad, $349 a month for 39

months, $0 down. So folks, we're going to have this out on the caredge.com slash guides part

of the website this afternoon or in the newsletter, if you subscribe to that,

Justin compiled all the leases. I mean, the kid Nero EV, dad, $109 a month.

And it's like, how can you say no to paying $109 a month to have use of a vehicle? Okay,

you don't own it, but my goodness gracious, it was only $109 a month. The average new car

payment today is $750 a month based on 70.2 month term. Okay, compare that to $109 a month for 24

months. You tell me, if you're a payment buyer, which one of those makes the most sense to you?

Now, there will be people who say, but you never own it, you're just renting the car.

Here's the premise I want most people to try to accept. Sure. Most people never keep their cars

the full term of the loan. They trade them in before the loan gets paid off.

I'm sure you saw that throughout your career all the time.

Oh, constantly. So what does that mean? That means that most people who are buying their

car never really own it. What they own is a car payment. The bank owns the title to that vehicle

until you've paid it off. So the premise for most people is if you will accept the fact that you're

always going to have a car payment, whether you own it or lease it doesn't matter because

you're just always going to have a car payment. What's the cheapest way to get a cheaper car payment?

You lease the damn thing. I do want to call out here. I do want to call out here from

Dan. He's spot on $109 a month after putting $4,000 down. I personally believe people should

put as little down as possible on leases. We agree. We agree, but let's do the math

really quickly here, Dad. It was $4,000 down and let me double check. Let me pull

it back to $4,000. It was a 24-month lease, wasn't it? What's that going to do from a payment

perspective about $4,000? So take $1,000 and divide it by 24 months.

All right, one second. And so how much does $4,000 go? How much is it?

$41,000. Okay, $41,000. So four times four, that's $164. Add that to $109 a year. $273 a

month with zero down. Okay, $273 a month for two years with zero down. That is still $500

a month less than the average new car payment today. Think about that.

And also, Dad, Mara, excuse me, space-making the point zero do its signing

very different than zero down. So that's what it's saying here. So what is the

difference between that? Help educate me here. Well, what they're saying is that in order to get

that payment, you have to put $39,99 down plus tax, title and license. Okay, so what are the

license fees in your state for that vehicle? What would the tax be? So $39,99 might turn into $5,000

or $4,500 or $4,600. Got it. But still, it's a cheap-ass payment.

I mean, especially compared to average. Average, again, you were claiming to

for 500 bucks more. So yeah, it's like materially different or different ball games,

which is important. And also, I think, Dad, what we anticipate, Jerry was the one that called

it out, but I think it's what we anticipate. And quite frankly, what those auto industry

execs who were interviewed who are pessimistic about the future of the car market expect manufacturers

to do too. We're going to see a ton of incentives around leasing to get people into payments

that they can feel comfortable with. Dad, we've got a question here. What happens when you return

a lease with significantly less mileage than what is expected? Is the residual value higher?

No, the residual value was set, whether it has those miles that you were allowed or less.

Now, with some leasing companies, for instance, BMW Mini, if you don't utilize all the miles and you

turn it back in with considerably less miles than what you were allowed, you get a credit for some

of those unused miles that go toward your next vehicle, whether you lease it or finance it

through BMW or Mini. And, you know, other manufacturers might not have that program.

I mean, I know in my case, my lease is based on 10,000 miles a year. Well, I don't drive anywhere

near 10,000 miles a year. But what I do know is that at the end of three years, when I have

six or 7,000 miles on the car, that it will be worth significantly more than what my $20,000

residual would be. So you have the option to be clear at the end of the lease, unless it's one of

these leases from like Tesla or some Ford leases, you will have the option to purchase the vehicle

at the predetermined residual value, which to your point, Dad, is based on them anticipating

you driving X number of miles per year. So I'll be able to buy my car for like $20,000 and they were

expecting it to have 30,000 miles on it. It might have six or 7,000 miles on it. How much more

would that car be worth because it has 24,000 miles less on it than it should? Oh, I would say

three or $4,000. So would it make sense for a person like me to buy that vehicle at the end of

the lease and be able to pick up four grand? Oh, I'm pretty sure it would. Yeah.

Yeah, definitely. Definitely. What a fascinating, you know, it's like we're connecting the dots.

Again, we started the show with the headline over on automotive news, which is really,

I mean, again, it's not coming from me. It's coming from the industry. I'll

share it on the screen one more time. It says it right here, franchise dealership executives

competence in future auto industry falls amid economic tariff concerns. And then we're tying

this into the work that Justin, which I think I just got a message from him, Dad.

Let's do it all together here. CarEdge.com slash guides. Okay, I went to that website. I'm going

to refresh. There it is. Labor Day lease deals the best offers from every automaker 2025.

Folks, please, please, please go check that out. CarEdge.com slash guides and it'll pop right up.

It then ties directly into so how does the industry respond when there's hardship, pessimism?

We got to put deals out there. What are deals to consumers? We all know we always

negotiate the out the door price, things like that. A lot of folks don't do that.

And what do they look at the monthly payment lease deals, folks, lease deals. So here you go.

May I share one thing with everybody today? I went for my annual Medicare well care visit,

you know, to make sure that I can still function as a human being. And part of that visit is they

give me three, well, there's two segments. One segment is, hey, they give you a circle and say,

draw a clock and then draw 10 minutes after 11. Okay, did that. I wanted to ask,

do you want an analog or digital? And the other was at the beginning, they gave me three words

that you have to remember. And the three words were village, kitchen, and baby. And in previous

years, one of the words was always bananas. And she said, well, I'm not giving you bananas this

year. I said, okay. So she gave me the three words. And like 10 minutes later, she said,

well, what were the three words? I said, the three words are the village people are in the

kitchen feeding bananas to the baby. I'm glad you're sharp, man. I'm glad because, you know,

no one's beaten the odds yet. We all unfortunately, it's a sad thought, but we all die

eventually. But you're still kicking, man, you're crushing it down. Well, and then,

and then this was the nurse and then the doctor came in. And at a certain point, he told me that he

called me elderly. And I was so pissed at him. I am so far from, I'll let you know when I'm elderly,

buddy. Okay, because I remember my people, my village people, my kitchen, my baby,

my bananas, I know how to draw that friggin clock. Oh, and I know how to make you laugh.

And he goes, yeah, you do. Thank you for that. Folks, if we can help you out with anything. Yeah,

right on Ray is correct. Love seeing my dad happy and healthy. We can help you out with anything.

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the Car Edge website pops. Let's call it a show for today. Yeah, let's bring the energy tomorrow,

August. Well, you know, I might say I could be floating away tomorrow for I know literally,

they have they have the beaches are open. The ocean is closed. You're not allowed to go into

the ocean. But the beaches are open. The waves are supposed to at some point between Thursday

and Friday be upwards of 12 to 18 foot waves here at Jersey Shore, which are huge for here.

So what beaches there are could all be washed out the sea come Saturday.

They have 18 is nuts for way. Yes, tell me about it. Because typically they're like

two or three feet. Yeah, well, no, they're talking 12 to 18.

They're talking coastal flooding. So, you know, move your car to high ground. If you could find

high ground where we are, that that would be a miracle. Yeah, it could it could be really

interesting. That was swimming for you today, pops. No swimming for me. Well, I can swim in

the pool here at the condo, but there literally is no swimming in the ocean. They have and pretty

much that's from like Florida to New York. Okay, it's it's going to it's going to be bad here.

Unfortunately, thank goodness. Thank goodness. The hurricane is not making landfall near you.

Oh, my God. Yeah, this is the damn thing going out going out the sea. But it is just,

you know, riling up the ocean terribly. And yeah, it's, you know,

but Sunday it'll probably be gorgeous. There won't be any beach, but it'll be gorgeous.

We'll be back tomorrow, folks. Love you, dad. Love you too, handsome. Thank you, everybody,

for putting up with me and my craziness today.

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CAR MARKET CRASH 2025 IS COMING | Episode 907

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