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EDMUNDS Just Put the Entire Auto Industry On ALERT | Episode 1079

EDMUNDS Just Put the Entire Auto Industry On ALERT | Episode 1079

CarEdge Live May 27, 2026 32 min
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About this episode

Used-car pricing is staying stubbornly high, but the story is getting more nuanced: residual values are shifting, lease returns are poised to change supply, and EVs are driving volatility. The hosts walk through Edmunds data comparing average transaction prices to MSRP and residuals, including how residuals can diverge from what buyers actually pay. They also debate Tesla’s resale behavior, talk lease buyouts and incentives, and connect the whole market to gas prices and charging access.

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Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Car

Jeep Wrangler

"price in comparison to MSRP would be like a Wrangler 4xE. Okay, when those come back off of lease, yeah, you'll be able to buy a cheap 4xE from, but"

The Jeep Wrangler 4xe is a hybrid Wrangler you can plug in. It uses electricity for part of your driving, but it’s still built to handle off-road use.

Term

MSRP

"price in comparison to MSRP would be like a Wrangler 4xE. Okay, when those come back off of lease, yeah, you'll be able to buy a cheap 4xE from, but other vehicles, not so much. ... What are you going to pay for that in comparison to its original MSRP?"

MSRP is the original “sticker price” the manufacturer lists. They’re comparing what people pay now for used cars versus that original price.

Concept

off of lease

"Okay, when those come back off of lease, yeah, you'll be able to buy a cheap 4xE from, but other vehicles, not so much."

“Off of lease” means the lease is ending and the car is coming back to be sold again. When lots of these cars hit the used market, prices can change.

Term

holding its value

"And if it starts with a JEE and ends with a P on the end, that's brand-aid and holding its value, okay? But there are others looking at a used RAV4 that's three years old."

Holding value means the car doesn’t lose its resale price as quickly. They’re saying some brands keep demand better, so used prices stay higher.

Car

Toyota RAV4

"...lue, okay? But there are others looking at a used RAV4 that's three years old. What are you going to pay..."

The Toyota RAV4 is a small SUV that’s meant for everyday driving and family use. It’s commonly shopped for in the used market because many people keep them for a long time. The podcast is basically asking what you should expect to pay for one that’s a few years old.

Brand

Tesla

"What about Tesla, Josh? I know Tesla prices must be highly volatile. Are they tracking to the admin's data, depreciating significantly, or are they holding their values?"

They’re talking about Tesla, the electric-vehicle brand. The main idea is that Tesla prices and availability can change fast, and dealers may not be willing to discount much.

Place

Georgia

"I've got one dealer that I lean on pretty heavily in Georgia. He does a lot of EV business, whether it be a Porsche or whether it be a Tesla."

They mention Georgia because that’s where the dealer they talk to is located. Local demand and inventory can change how fast cars sell and how much dealers discount.

Concept

two very different markets

"I think that on the use car side, what's becoming super clear to me is that there are two very different markets out there. Like, there's one market, which is use cars are selling at original MSRP..."

The hosts are describing a split used-car market where some vehicles trade near new-car pricing (selling at original MSRP) while others depreciate sharply. This kind of divergence usually comes from differences in supply constraints, demand, and how many similar cars are entering the used market (like lease returns).

Term

holding their value

"So, they're holding their value more less negotiable. But then the other side of the market would be those 4xs."

“Holding their value” means the car doesn’t lose its price as fast as other cars. Here, they’re saying Tesla’s limited supply helps keep resale prices stronger.

Term

depreciating

"But then the other side of the market would be those 4xs. Like, they are depreciating."

Depreciation is how fast a car loses value. They’re saying one group of used cars is dropping in price more quickly than the other.

Topic

off-lease inventory and lease penetration trends

"And so, obviously, there's been a crunch there. [442.2s] But this off lease inventory could reset things a little bit... [494.7s] At its high point, according to Edmunds, it was about 29%. [509.9s] Well, the fact that it dropped to like 18%,"

They’re talking about how the number of cars available for sale used can change when lots of leases end. They also explain that leasing popularity (“lease penetration”) affects how many cars come back.

Term

lease returns

"One of the things when you read into that, [471.8s] and we've discussed it in the past, [474.1s] that there is a significant increase in lease returns [478.2s] that are due to come back this year and next year."

Lease returns are the cars that come back when the lease is over. If a lot of leases end around the same time, more cars can show up for sale used.

Term

EVs

"Primarily, those are going to be EVs, [485.8s] okay, because lease penetration overall [489.5s] is still well below where the industry would like to see it."

EVs are electric cars that run on batteries instead of gasoline. They’re saying many of the leased cars coming back soon are expected to be EVs.

Concept

buy their lease out

"they can buy their lease out at the end, [545.3s] and it will be worth 15% to 20% more than what they have to pay for it, [551.7s] and so they'll never make it to the dealer."

At the end of a lease, you may be able to buy the car instead of returning it. The price is usually set ahead of time, so it can be a good deal if the car is worth more than that price.

Term

hybrid stuff

"What do you think, Josh? [560.4s] I mean, you nailed the head right there at the end. [563.2s] Yeah, the hybrid stuff. [564.8s] How many of our customers initially tell us that,"

A hybrid uses two power sources: a gas engine and an electric motor. In this discussion, hybrids are part of what’s driving customer behavior at the end of leases.

Term

residual values

"So, yeah, I strongly agree that most of those will be bought and kept because of residual values. Go ahead, Jack."

When you lease a car, the contract assumes the car will still be worth a certain amount at the end. That “end-of-lease value” affects your monthly payment and how the car holds up when you go to sell it.

Term

leased vehicles

"These are the most leased vehicles from, guess what, year 2023. So these are the vehicles that most leases, I mean, you guys are the experts on this, but most leases are three years."

A lease is basically a long-term rental with an end date. When the lease ends, the car usually comes back to the leasing company, which can increase the number of cars for sale used.

Concept

flood the used car market with inventory

"So these are the vehicles that at the highest rate will be coming off lease this year, which should, I'm going to use this word gently here, flood the used car market with inventory of these vehicles, of these vehicles."

If lots of cars suddenly show up for sale used, there are more choices than buyers. When that happens, prices often drop—especially for the models that are arriving in big numbers.

Term

resale value

"And the reason I say that is because they put in here the estimated average transaction price versus resale value. [646.1s] These are examples of leased vehicles"

Resale value is what the car is worth when you sell it later. Lease deals depend on predictions about resale value, so if it’s lower than expected, the deal can turn out badly.

Term

estimated average transaction price

"And the reason I say that is because they put in here the estimated average transaction price versus resale value. [646.1s] These are examples of leased vehicles"

Transaction price is what people actually pay when they buy the car. If that average price is higher than what the car is worth later, it suggests depreciation is worse than expected.

Term

equity

"These are examples of leased vehicles where the customer does not have equity. [649.8s] These are unequivocally vehicles where the leasing company is in the hole."

Equity is basically how much “extra value” you have in the car. If the car isn’t worth enough compared to what you’d have to pay to own it, you don’t have equity.

Car

Volvo C40 Recharge

"Look at the Volvo C40 Recharge. 87% of transactions on Volvo C40 Recharges in 2023 were leases."

The Volvo C40 Recharge is Volvo’s all-electric SUV. The hosts are talking about how much people pay for it in real deals (especially leases) versus what it was originally priced at, which affects whether it can be a good “deal” later.

Term

upside down

"And we're talking upside down by $14,000 in some cases on the EQS SUV. So these would be potential shopping opportunities for customers."

“Upside down” means the car is worth less than what you owe or what you expected it to be worth. If that happens, the market may offer discounts to move inventory.

Term

0% for 72 months

"But anyways, 0% for 72 months on a Toyota."

“0% for 72 months” means the financing deal has no interest for six years. That can lower the monthly payment and make the car easier to afford.

Car

Hyundai Ioniq

"...ome other models out there like that. I think the Hyundai Ioniq 9, 10 grand rebate. So all that stuff's going to ..."

The Hyundai Ioniq 5 is an all-electric SUV. It runs on a battery instead of gasoline, and it can be charged at home or at public charging stations. It’s often discussed because incentives can make it cheaper to buy, especially compared with what it costs after a few years.

Car

Hyundai Ioniq 9

"There's some other models out there like that. I think the Hyundai Ioniq 9, 10 grand rebate."

The Hyundai Ioniq 9 is an electric car model mentioned as an example of a vehicle that may come with a big rebate. Big rebates can make the lease deal look better right now.

Term

lease vehicles

"And so that's why these are lease vehicles. And specifically, same with Tesla."

A lease is like renting a car for a few years. You pay for the use, and then you give the car back at the end instead of buying it outright.

Concept

lease vintage cohort

"not only are what we're looking at in some cases from last quarter, or in the case of the 2023 lease vintage cohort, that's three years old."

This is a way to group cars that were leased around the same time. When those leases end, that group starts showing up for sale, which changes what used cars are available.

Concept

EV charger

"The problem for a lot of those people is they might not have anywhere to charge them. Because the people that typically are looking for 20 to $25,000 vehicles might not necessarily have a house, might live in an apartment that doesn't have an EV charger."

An EV charger is what you plug into to charge an electric car. If you can’t charge at home, owning an EV can be harder day-to-day.

Term

full battery electric vehicles

"but I think full battery electric vehicles. Because they used artificially high residual values in order to create a cheap lease payment."

A full battery-electric vehicle is a car that runs only on electricity. It doesn’t use gasoline like a hybrid or plug-in hybrid would.

Car

Tesla Model Y

"but then that dealer that you work closely with usually has 30 Tesla Model Ys on their lot, and they only have two right now."

The Tesla Model Y is an all-electric SUV/crossover. The hosts are talking about how many of them dealers have and how that affects prices and demand.

Concept

demand story

"So it's nothing, it's a demand story. Like people want Teslas instead of Volvo EVs."

A “demand story” means the market is mostly about what people want to buy. In this case, the hosts are saying more people want Teslas than other EVs, which affects availability and pricing.

Brand

Kia

"much more so than say Hyundai or Kia or Volvo or Polestar."

Kia is another car brand that makes electric vehicles. The hosts mention it to say Tesla has been around longer, so people are more likely to consider Tesla first for a used EV.

Brand

Polestar

"Polestar and Hyundai and Kia and those with full EVs have been around for five years."

Polestar is a company that makes electric cars. The hosts are saying it hasn’t been around as long as Tesla, so fewer people automatically think of it when shopping for a used EV.

Term

battery issues

"There's history for me to look at that indicates that these should be road worthy for years and years and they have minimal battery issues, which I think is the main and most important thing when it comes to an EV."

For electric cars, the battery is the most expensive and important part. The hosts are saying people worry most about whether the battery will last or develop problems, especially on used cars.

Concept

off lease availability

"It's that second bullet point, helping the cause as a projected surge in off lease availability this year and I want to quantify it."

This means how many cars are coming back from leases and showing up for sale. More cars coming back usually makes it easier to find a deal on the used market.

Brand

Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV

"So if you've always wanted to drive a Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV but you convinced yourself that spending $140,000 three years ago wasn't the right move, congrats."

This is an electric SUV from Mercedes-Benz. In this discussion, it’s used as an example of a car that may be cheaper later because it loses value faster than people expect.

Car

Mercedes-Benz Mercedesbenz Eqs

"to be sold as used cars are a lot of those EVs. So if you've always wanted to drive a Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV but you convinced yourself that spending $140,000 three years ago wasn't the right move, congrats."

The Mercedes-Benz EQS is a luxury electric SUV. Instead of using gasoline, it uses a battery and electric motors. People bring it up in used-car discussions because the price can drop a lot after a few years.

Concept

depreciates like crazy

"Another Mercedes-Benz has become a boat anchor that depreciates like crazy. You could probably go pick one up this year or next year for probably like 50 grand."

That phrase means the car is losing value quickly. The hosts are saying some EVs may get much cheaper sooner than people think.

Term

below current market value

"will never see the light of day at a dealership because their current driver will end up buying it because they can buy it for 15% to 20% below current market value."

“Current market value” means what the car is worth right now based on real prices. The speaker is saying some buyers can get it for 15% to 20% less than that going rate.

Term

EV

"The ones that are going to make it to market are that 25.7% that are EVs."

EV means electric vehicle—cars that run on electricity stored in a battery. In this segment, the speaker says EV deals and inventory are harder to find right now.

Car

Toyota Grand Highlander

"Some of our partner dealers are definitely on board with providing us, I just did a deal the other day, a $2,000 discount on a Grand Highlander."

The Toyota Grand Highlander is a bigger Toyota SUV with three rows of seats. Here, the host is using it as an example of a car that’s getting a discount right now.

Term

1.9% for 72 months

"We don't get into the Prius plug-in hybrid, the plug-in version, 1.9% for 72 months,"

That phrase is the financing deal: 1.9% interest for a loan lasting 72 months (6 years). Deals like this can make the monthly payment smaller, but the overall cost still depends on the full loan details.

Car

Toyota Prius

"We don't get into the Prius plug-in hybrid, the plug-in version, 1.9% for 72 months,"

The Prius plug-in hybrid is a Prius that you can charge like an EV, but it also has a gas engine for when you need it. In this segment, it’s mentioned as an example of pricing/financing that may come with incentives.

Concept

gas prices

"The used car market and consumer shopping behavior is super, super, super correlated to what happens to gas prices."

Gas prices affect what it costs to drive a gas car. When gas prices change, people often change what cars they shop for, and that can move used-car prices too.

Concept

no such thing as a used car factory

"Yeah. One thing I always like to say to customers, there's no such thing as a used car factory. So, it's a supply and demand crunch."

The idea is that used cars aren’t built from scratch like new cars. They show up when people replace their cars, so if people aren’t turning cars over, the used-car supply stays tight.

Concept

supply and demand

"So, it's a supply and demand crunch... And if you look at the supply versus how many vehicles are sold on a 30-day average, the math really doesn't math... supply and demand on EVs is high."

Supply and demand means: if there are fewer cars than people want, prices go up; if there are more cars than people want, prices go down. That’s why the number of cars available matters so much for used and EV pricing.

Concept

30-day average

"And if you look at the supply versus how many vehicles are sold on a 30-day average, the math really doesn't math."

A 30-day average is just a “one-month average” to make the numbers less jumpy. It’s used to judge whether cars are selling faster than they’re coming in (or the opposite).

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