01:13
Our 10th prediction of for 2026, that was that Pontiac Aztec will be worth $100,000.
01:20
Tonight on That Car Show, we're joined by John Wiley,
01:24
Hagerty's Director of Evaluation Analytics.
01:28
John truly knows his stuff with real insight into why cars are worth what they are
01:33
and what the future holds for enthusiasts like us.
01:38
Before we jump in, do us a quick favor, hit follow or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice
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Those small clicks make a huge difference for the show.
01:49
It's a fascinating conversation with Hagerty's John Wiley and it starts now on That Car Show.
01:55
Hey, it's That Car Show. It's me and Lindsay tonight.
01:59
And we're joined by a guest I've wanted to have on for a long time.
02:03
You've almost certainly heard of Hagerty's bull market list.
02:07
It does get around. Tonight's guest is the guy behind it.
02:11
John Wiley is Hagerty's Director of Evaluation Analytics,
02:15
which means he can shed some light on what exactly is going on in today's market
02:19
and why you cannot afford a Porsche 964 anymore.
02:23
Also, our pal, our mutual pal Trent Abbott, insisted that we have him on.
02:27
So welcome to That Car Show, John.
02:29
Yeah, thanks, Ryan. I appreciate it being on here.
02:32
Really glad to have you here. You know, whenever the bull market list is announced,
02:37
I always try to guess what's on it before I click.
02:40
I usually get a couple right, but these aren't just gut feelings.
02:44
There's real science behind it. And in fact, you have a master's degree
02:48
in financial mathematics from the University of Chicago.
02:52
So tell us about the methodology here and what all goes into it.
02:56
Sure. I mean, there's definitely a lot of numbers
03:00
and data crunching that goes on to make the choices.
03:04
And fortunately, I'm not the only one making these picks.
03:07
So there's, you know, we have a team of analysts that help
03:11
understand sort of what's happening in the market.
03:15
A further group of people that are, you know, compiling all of this data.
03:19
So the Haggerty Auto Intel team has a lot of expertise
03:23
and does a lot of, you know, we try to
03:27
understand the entire enthusiast vehicle marketplace.
03:31
But, you know, we do get to, once a year, we get to pick
03:35
these 10 vehicles, maybe a motorcycle too,
03:39
and that we expect to, you know, appreciate and
03:43
or hold their value for the next, you know, year
03:47
and beyond. And what's interesting is, you know, it's
03:51
we look for one of the great things about
03:55
Haggerty is that it has a lot of data. You know, it has not just sort of auction
03:59
results and data like the price guide values
04:03
which go back as far as 2006 for some vehicles.
04:07
But we also have insurance data, and so that helps
04:11
us kind of understand the types of people or sort of the
04:15
demographics of a particular vehicle. And so, you know, we can see
04:19
like, you know, are there, who's shopping for this particular vehicle
04:23
and is it, and, you know, that includes both people
04:27
getting a policy with Haggerty, people just sort of coming to Haggerty and looking to,
04:31
you know, they say, hey, I've got, you know, a 1989 BMW
04:35
325i, maybe an S, and
04:39
they want to ensure for $25,000.
04:43
You know, and that's, you know, that valuation data point isn't
04:47
that unusual, but, you know, if they're 75 years old
04:51
or if they're 25 years old, that might mean something different.
04:55
And so, in sort of an aggregate, we get a much better
04:59
sense of kind of the demand potential for certain vehicles.
05:03
Data really is the most valuable thing anymore, isn't it?
05:07
Right, yes, it's a, and yeah, I feel
05:11
fortunate to work for Haggerty because we do have a lot of great data.
05:15
What goes into the value of a car? Obviously there are auction results, but is it
05:19
sentimentality? You know, does it come down to the car's inherent value?
05:23
How much is just simple rarity? Like, what's the formula here?
05:27
Yeah, it's, there's a variety of things. I mean, sometimes, you know, there's
05:31
rarity can help and it can hurt as with, you know,
05:35
and not just sort of how many did they build, but also how many
05:39
are in that particular color. You know, so in some
05:43
times, you know, we just looked at sort of the
05:47
premium, the value of a particular color for the first and second generation
05:51
Mazda Miata's. And so, you know, we look, you know, some
05:55
colors are very common. There's like classic red, which is a very common
05:59
color for Miata's. And, you know, it gets a little
06:03
tiny premium in the market, but there are some rare colors,
06:07
some yellows and some blues that get big premiums
06:11
or actually get a discount. So rarity
06:15
can make a difference.
06:19
You know, getting help the car can hurt the car.
06:23
And so, but, you know, the other thing I think that, especially as you sort of move up
06:27
in the price point, and, you know, and it's kind of, it's maybe
06:31
not that specific to a particular price point, but
06:35
it's sort of what can you do with a car and what kind of
06:39
experiences can you have with it. Is, you know, is your only
06:43
experience going to be, you know, having it sit in the shop or the garage
06:47
while you're waiting for parts and it's, you know, you can't get it to run.
06:51
Or is the experience going on the Colorado Grand
06:55
and so those kinds of experiences I think
06:59
or opportunity to have those types of experiences
07:03
really help the value of the vehicle. And so that's
07:07
another big thing that helps. That's really interesting that you
07:11
incorporate use case and sort of like applicability
07:15
to like different scenarios in the valuation of the car.
07:19
That's fascinating. Yeah. I mean, it's, you know, it's not
07:23
in sort of a big for 1965
07:27
Ford Mustang, you know, there's that's less of a
07:31
thing other than just that you can get parts for it and you can
07:35
drive it and modify it and, you know, whereas
07:39
for more valuable vehicles, it's more of an explicit kind of
07:43
obvious difference. And certainly I think one of the
07:47
you know, one of the traditional value differentiators
07:51
is for certain events like the London to Brighton run
07:55
where it's, you know, cars built before 1905
07:59
and for listeners, this is sort of a funny event in
08:03
London, England, where they drive very, very
08:07
elderly cars, you know, 60 miles over the course of a day
08:11
and so, you know, but it's
08:15
if you have an eligible vehicle for that, then it's
08:19
worthwhile to get it. But if you don't, then
08:23
it's sort of you're out of luck and you can't do as much with it. So,
08:27
and same with a Miele, Miele with like the 1957
08:31
model year cut off. Yep, yep, yep. And the
08:35
Cal Miele, which is a Hagerty event, I think it's 58, is that right? And you
08:39
mentioned the grand, we're 60 and older. So that really makes a real difference between
08:43
a 60, 356 and a 61, right? Yeah, yeah, no, for sure.
08:47
Yeah, it makes an adds up. And, you know, I think sometimes
08:51
for some of these events, they'll make exceptions and things, but I think it's kind of, it really
08:55
helps the markability of a particular vehicle. And these, you know, these types of
08:59
events sort of come and go in terms of popularity, but
09:03
yeah, it's a, you know, and so if you have a vehicle that's not eligible for
09:07
an event, but it's, you know, you'd like to do some
09:10
drive, you know, you can start organizing the tour. I think there was something like
09:14
the Shelby GT350, the
09:18
1965 cars, like the, you know, there's a tour for those now, and that's
09:22
more popular or something. Yeah, I think that's maybe, is it the Drew
09:26
Serb event that they do in Northern California? Possibly. I know, or I should
09:30
say, I know he does one as well. I don't know if that's the one that you're talking about.
09:34
Probably. But yeah, I've seen some pretty incredible pictures. And there's one
09:38
that they do with Cobras too, because I saw a picture of a bunch of Cobras in the
09:42
snow in Montana, I think, which was incredible.
09:46
Yeah. So John, we've established, say this again, I'm off
09:50
tonight, sorry, I'm gonna try this again. John, we've established,
09:54
it's been a long day, like a student plays and everything else.
09:58
You're already somehow. John, I actually, this morning got up early, I drove,
10:02
I endeavored to drive up to the top of Pike's Peak, which
10:06
you wouldn't be able to do in the winter, but it's like 60 degrees here right now.
10:10
And I made it up about as far as Glen Cove, which is,
10:14
I don't know, 13, no, I think it's about 10 and a half thousand feet, so.
10:18
Okay. So that's where I got up to do this. So it's been a long
10:22
day, but anyway, back at it. That's quite a day. It is. We've established
10:26
your credentials as far as mathematics and
10:30
valuation and all this, but what are your car credentials? Like, when did you get into
10:34
college? Yeah. So I, you know, I've, I did,
10:38
I grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area and sort of Silicon Valley.
10:42
And so, and I think
10:46
growing up there was, you know, exposed me to a bunch of kind of unusual
10:50
cars that, you know, this ride of stuff and it being California, they're, you know,
10:54
stuff didn't rust and as much. And so, you know,
10:58
certainly I think smog pulled some cars off the road and things, but
11:02
it's just sort of that curiosity, like, what is
11:06
that? And, you know, what is that little beige BMW 2002
11:10
and or something? And so that was, you know,
11:14
fun to see some of these cars and, you know, I'd ride my bike around and I'd
11:18
take pictures of these cars and, you know, with a, on a
11:22
film camera. Yeah. Right. And so. We can all relate to that.
11:26
Right. And yeah, way to develop them and the
11:30
pictures, for instance. But then, you know,
11:34
in this, and it's kind of out of that, I was reading,
11:38
kind of got into reading sort of vintage
11:42
car magazines and at some point along the way, one of my mom's
11:46
friends started vintage racing cars
11:50
like an Alpha Giulietta Spider. Okay, cool.
11:54
And so, you know, I would go to
11:58
Sierra's Point or Laguna Seca and watch them race or something like that.
12:02
So, Sierra's Point is, of course, the Sonoma Raceway
12:06
or something like that. Right. You can tell how long somebody's been in
12:10
the car all by what era of names they use for the tracks.
12:14
Yeah. So, and her husband, she married a guy
12:18
who was also vintage racing and so
12:22
I, you know, sort of learned from him a bit
12:26
about, you know, and he restored a bunch of cars and, you know,
12:30
found out what's an Austin Healy and how is that different than an
12:34
Aston Martin and what's a, you know, John Warwick's K120 and things like that.
12:42
that was kind of like high school, college and, you know, I went
12:46
I didn't go to school in California for college. I went off to
12:50
the East Coast and then went to Chicago later and, you know, these are not
12:54
kind of car friendly places. Right.
12:58
So, but I did keep going to these car shows, concourse events
13:02
and I guess one of the other unusual kind of
13:06
coincidences was that I had
13:10
some relatives that lived down on the Monterey Peninsula. Okay.
13:14
And so I'd go down, you know, go down and visit them
13:18
and, you know, occasionally they'd say, you know, hey, we have this car show
13:22
down there at the lodge at Pebble Beach and, you know, you can come down and stay with us
13:26
and, you know, here's a ticket if you want. And so
13:30
this was all much more sort of, you know, informal
13:34
at the time. Back in the good old days. Right. And also, you know, I know
13:38
context of like what is this event and so
13:42
that kind of thing. And so
13:46
I ended up, you know, kind of getting some awareness of that event and
13:50
taking pictures of it and things at the cars and stuff.
13:54
So, but then, yeah, so I kept, you know, took kind of a break
13:58
for a few years and then kept going, started going back to car shows,
14:02
concourse, vintage races and things. And then
14:06
at some point I started this Flickr page of photos.
14:10
So again, that dates me. I think it's, you know,
14:14
I started it in about 2008 or so. Okay.
14:18
I think that was gonna flicker today. Right.
14:22
It's still, people still use it. I know.
14:26
Hasn't flickered out yet, huh? Yeah.
14:30
I worry when it changes hands or something like that.
14:34
So I started putting pictures on there and I, you know, kept doing it
14:38
and I, you know, kind of tagged the photos and describe it
14:42
and, you know, what chassis number is this car and, you know, do I have other photos
14:46
and things like that. So I tried to be pretty organized about the photos.
14:50
So I am now up to like 28,000 photos on there
14:54
and, you know, and sort of like, you know, oh, I saw this car
14:58
at, you know, 12 years ago at
15:02
Lime Rock Park and then I saw, you know, it again and it's
15:06
now it's a different color and it's at Pebble Beach or something like that. And so
15:10
that kind of thing has been helpful. And, you know, so anyway
15:14
at one point I kind of, you know, as I had a career
15:18
track after college and studying computer science
15:22
I got into the financial world and was working as an analyst
15:26
there and kind of went through a couple different
15:30
sort of parts of that financial world with equities and then
15:34
derivatives, fixed income derivatives and things and
15:38
and then moved as into a data science role.
15:42
But, you know, sort of this combination
15:46
of like I have this career but then I'm also spending
15:50
a bunch of time and going to these car events and, you know,
15:54
it seems like it's kind of this worthless hobby and maybe I should just figure out
15:58
something else to do because it's not really that worthwhile or productive
16:02
but fortunately I found out about this opportunity at
16:06
Haggerty where they wanted somebody who could talk about sort of the market and
16:10
understand values but also knew about the cars. And so, you know, it's like
16:14
oh, I have all these, you know, tens of thousands of photos on Flickr
16:18
that I've been labeling and tagging and things like that. And so
16:22
which is, you know, a big part of sort of what Haggerty and the auto
16:26
automotive intelligence team does is kind of describing vehicles accurately
16:30
and so that's a big part of it. So fortunately that
16:34
become that's been a great combination and that lets me sort of
16:38
talk about a big picture part of the market but then also kind of what makes
16:42
a specific car valuable. And so that's sort of
16:46
being, looking down at whatever 30,000 feet but then looking
16:50
at a specific vehicle and understanding what makes it worthwhile or valuable
16:54
to somebody is helpful.
16:58
Well, can we go down the list for 2026? This was recently released.
17:02
Sure, yeah. Yep, there's a good variety of cars.
17:06
You know, we work with the magazine media team to kind of
17:10
curate the list. You know, sometimes, and it is, it's a little bit more
17:14
of a list of vehicles where
17:18
it's, you know, there's a little bit of curation of like, you know,
17:22
we have, we don't want to have, despite
17:26
you know, some inclinations of folks
17:30
it's, you know, we can't have a list of JDMK cars because nobody
17:34
would read that. Right, right, right.
17:38
So we, you know, there's sort of like, let's have an American car, maybe something
17:42
that's, you know, more modern. So there's a little bit of
17:46
Before you start, sorry, so what, I mean, what, what are the qualifications
17:50
and what are we looking for in a car that makes this list? What is it telling us?
17:54
I think, I mean, there are kind of, there are also
17:58
differences of kind of what's the investment
18:02
potential. And so what it, you know, is it
18:06
is it a car that's going to double in value in the next five years, or is it
18:10
a car that sort of used to be considered very collectible and
18:14
valuable for its type and is maybe
18:18
you know, lost some of that value in the past five years, and maybe we expect it to
18:22
turn around and rebound. So, and so there are sort of
18:26
there, or maybe the car is already valuable and we expect it to become even more valuable.
18:30
So that's kind of some of the areas where we
18:34
look, you know, and certainly as the, you know,
18:38
the market has kind of cooled relative to
18:42
10 years ago or so, or even 2022
18:46
where kind of everything was going up, you know, it is a little
18:50
bit more nuanced as to, you know, this vehicles
18:54
has some potential to rebound whereas we expect some of the other vehicles
18:58
that are comparable or similar to lose, continue
19:02
to lose value or not appreciate further.
19:06
Well, the first one that I see on the list is the 68-70 Dodge Charger, and I think that
19:10
certainly fits in there because that's kind of an anomaly. A lot of muscle cars and cars of that era have really
19:14
dropped, haven't they? Yeah, I mean, and there's, you know, it's
19:18
yes or no. You know, it's, I think one
19:22
thing that's happened in the muscle car market is that some of the really valuable
19:26
ones are still valuable or
19:30
mostly, but, you know, it's not every
19:34
muscle car that's valuable. Not across the board.
19:38
Yeah, and one of the surprising
19:42
things to me, and this is some more sort of this haggardy data
19:46
and the demographics really help is, you know, the
19:50
demand for muscle cars is kind of, is
19:54
cross-generational. You know, it doesn't matter. There's kind of this perception
19:58
that it's, you know, people collect what they
20:02
liked when they got their driver's license, and, you know, that's, you know,
20:06
and I think that used to be really true,
20:10
especially when, you know, the car that was new in the showroom, when you got
20:14
your driver's license was something cool, you know, and whatever
20:18
it might be. 1961 Jaguar E-Type or something like that.
20:22
But, you know, if you were, if you got your driver's license
20:26
in 1981 or 1991, maybe,
20:30
you know, there wasn't as many sort of fun things to
20:34
aspire to own. So, you know,
20:38
and I think also as cars, more and more cars have been restored and, you know,
20:42
and seen, you can see more stuff. So there's much more sort of
20:46
interest from younger generations in more vintage cars, and I think people
20:50
realize. That's fantastic.
20:54
Yeah, and I mean, especially with sort of vintage,
20:58
you know, phoning cars, muscle cars, pickup trucks,
21:02
you know, you can modify these cars or reasonably affordable.
21:06
And there's a lot of sort of, they're available, you can get parts and things
21:10
like that. Right. Well, that's really encouraging because I know, like, I'm around a lot
21:14
of the like 60s muscle car crowd, and one of the concerns, like
21:18
over the last few years for sure, has been, you know, are the next
21:22
generations interested in these or are we kind of, and again,
21:26
this is the people where these cars were new when they were in high school. Yeah.
21:30
Like, are we the last generation or is this going to carry on? So it's nice to hear that that
21:34
is, like, you are seeing interest from younger generations too.
21:38
Yeah, and you know, and you can look further back at like the Ford Model A, and there's
21:42
still interest in those. And, you know, and it, you know, no, it may not be a stock
21:46
Model A, but it's, you know, people can still, people are still coming to
21:50
Agade looking to ensure one. And so it's, you know, that's it and remains
21:54
a popular vehicle. And going back to the Charger, though, you know,
21:58
that's one of the things that helped it get on the list is that,
22:02
you know, this car has a lot of screen time. You know,
22:06
it's been in a number of different movies and, you know, across
22:10
eras and things. And so I think that really helps it sort of remain relevant
22:14
and something that's recognizable for different generations
22:18
and things. And so the fact that kind of the values of it had dipped
22:22
a bit in the past several years seemed to help
22:26
it make its place on this list where it's, you know, we
22:30
expect values to turn around or at least sort of hold stable.
22:34
Do you see when you have something like that where the value has
22:38
dipped, do you see people like that makes it more
22:42
accessible to a wider group of people? Does that help? Do you see
22:46
that? Like, how does that play out? Yeah, we'll look for sort of, you know,
22:50
from our price guide values and those trends we'll look for, you know, vehicles, people,
22:54
you know, the downward trend
22:58
and then we'll look for a signal of like potential of demand and people coming
23:02
to Agade and saying like, you know, quote in vehicles. And the other thing that we'll look at
23:06
in a more sort of nuanced way is that
23:10
you know, what are the values that people are
23:14
either buying the cars for and putting them on policy or just sort of quoting
23:18
and so is that, you know, are they lower than what, you know,
23:22
the price guide values say which isn't helpful for the market
23:26
but, you know, if they're higher and it says that, you know, somebody that's in their
23:30
40s, you know, is looking to buy a 68 charger and they want to spend
23:34
you know, whatever 100,000 on it, you know, that's helpful for
23:38
that, for that, the case of that vehicle sort of holding its value over time.
23:42
So you kind of look at, you start to look at the trends of like, are we seeing
23:46
like the values are going up, people are calling with higher quotes, that kind of thing.
23:50
Yeah, yep. Well, fast forwarding a little bit, the
23:54
1999 to 2005 Mazda MX-5 Miata. So I think we're talking
23:58
NC, is that right? No, that's, this is the
24:02
NB, yeah, NB. They've been in the NA for a long time, I guess.
24:06
Yeah. Well, there's also the Miata folks will tell you
24:10
that there's no 1998 model year. That's right.
24:14
So there's, they skip the model year. That's right.
24:18
And this is the case, this is sort of one of these other types of vehicles that picks
24:22
for the bull market, which is that, yes, there's sort of,
24:26
there's a, there's kind of the one that everybody thinks is very collectible,
24:30
like the NA Miata, but it's sometimes the market
24:34
that kind of too far out over its skis and
24:38
you know, and that becomes very valuable or
24:42
maybe overvalued, whereas a very close substitute, such as the
24:46
second generation NB Miata becomes a good deal.
24:50
And so in this case, we sort of, we expect that the NB Miata is
24:54
going to be a good deal of relatively speaking relative to the
24:58
NA or certainly these other cars like the Honda S2000, which has
25:02
some pretty valuable. Well, it's interesting because the NB, I think
25:06
for a long time was kind of the, I don't know, the maligned Miata,
25:10
right? It was, you know, they had got another one. Yeah.
25:14
So it's good to see, although there was the Mazda Speed NB, which I remember was
25:18
a very competent car. And I'm glad to see that they're kind of coming into their own
25:22
being appreciated. Yeah, they're good. Yeah, it's a good, I think
25:26
will pick. Well, the next one I have on the list is the
25:30
1956 to 1957 Continental Mark II, a car which I know nothing
25:34
about. Not a Lincoln, it's not. That's right.
25:38
It was its own thing, right? Yes. So yeah, I mean,
25:42
you know, again, this is a little bit of like a, I don't know,
25:46
potentially like a value play where it's like, you get a lot of car for your
25:50
money. Literally a lot of car. Yes, a lot of, I mean, you know,
25:54
there's certainly like, it's a lot of steel and iron and
25:58
glass and so on and so forth. But there's also, you know, it was
26:02
a very well engineered car for the time, especially if an American car
26:06
has a lot of sort of style. It's relatively distinctive
26:10
for that era of 1950s American luxury cars.
26:14
So, you know, in this case, it's kind of a call out of like
26:18
people maybe have forgotten about this car and, you know, values
26:22
of maybe dipped a bit. And so it just sort of like a, you know, and we're
26:26
looking, but seeing potentially some signs that there are some people that
26:30
are, you know, seeking this car out, you know, and it's worth
26:34
potentially further investigations. Right.
26:38
Not everyone has forgotten that they exist. Maybe the rest of you should take that
26:42
as well. So do you, when you go through to put the list together,
26:46
like you said, you're looking at, you know, we don't want to end up with all of one
26:50
kind of car. Yeah. Do you, does the variety
26:54
that you try to include change every year? Or do you, like, we always try to include
26:58
one of these and always one of these? Like, how does that work? Yeah, there's a bit, there's a, you know,
27:02
there's sort of a guidance and an effort to balance the list.
27:06
And so I don't think we necessarily, there's also, there's a Haggery
27:10
UK team and they produce a bull market list as well.
27:14
And they have defined sort of groups of vehicles.
27:18
So there's a hot hatch and there's a sort of a classic Roadster
27:22
or something of that nature. And so, whereas we don't have quite as well
27:26
defined categories, but yeah, we do try to have a kind
27:30
of a balance of something that's a little more vintage. And, you know, it's not all
27:34
80s and 90s cars or something. Right. Yeah. Yeah.
27:38
That kind of, I do remember it being a really beautiful thing. And, you know, things were
27:42
made of metal, right? Like, you know, it was, it was, you know,
27:46
plastic nonsense. Well, yeah, it was designed to be like a world beater, if I recall, right?
27:50
I mean, price was no object, kind of a Rolls Royce competitor, maybe
27:54
in a way. Yeah. I think they had to, some trivia
27:58
on the hood ornament is that they had to get some defense contractor
28:02
to make it because it's so, you know, precise and the
28:06
sharp edges that it has and things like that. How cool is that? You know, it's all well
28:10
before pedestrian safety regulations. Right.
28:14
In rarity, I mean, they can't be many of them, right? Yeah.
28:18
They're not surviving. Precursor to the
28:22
concerns about the Cybertruck and its corners. We give you the continental
28:26
hood ornament. Yeah. Yeah. That is one thing, too.
28:30
That all, you know, we find in particular with
28:34
the Miata and, you know, some of it's the NA and also the NB.
28:38
But, you know, because they were raced so much and sort of
28:42
used up, especially compared to
28:46
a Corvette ZR1, a C4, C5 or something,
28:50
a ZO6, you know, those types of cars,
28:54
you know, there's a lot more of them that were sort of put away
28:58
whereas Miata's were raced a lot more often and sort of used
29:02
up and so that sort of attrition can help
29:06
the collectability of the vehicle, too. And that's how you can end up with sort of these cars that
29:10
were much cheaper when they were new become more valuable when they're
29:14
sort of 25, 30 years old. Right. And what a
29:18
important car the Miata really was, right, for us
29:22
enthusiasts. It really kind of got the flame going and all that. So the next
29:26
one on the list is the 1990 to 1993 Chevrolet 454
29:30
SS. So this is something I remember one of the
29:34
really cool kids at school having when I was in high school, like an older kid, you know.
29:38
Why is this on the list? I have a sense. It was really the first muscle truck, right?
29:42
A modern muscle truck. Yeah. Yeah. There's, I mean, and, you know, Ford had
29:46
kind of a similar F-150 lightning at the time that I think
29:50
but yeah, it's, you know, it is an unusual
29:54
thing. And, you know, in this case it is kind of
29:58
when you look at what Chevrolet will sell you as a pickup
30:02
truck, you know, a full-size truck today
30:06
it's like this really isn't available
30:10
in this combination anymore. So it is
30:14
it's an interesting, I think that's partly why it's on the list is because it's just
30:18
there's a sort of an unrepeatable experience in this point in time for
30:22
if you want a accessible, you know, pickup truck with a big
30:26
block. Right. I mean, that really is like the lightning too because
30:30
first gen lightnings were not a crew cab either. Yeah. Which was first?
30:34
I think this came out first. I'm not
30:38
100% certain but I think this came out first and then I think the Ford responded a couple
30:42
years ago with a slightly different take on it which
30:46
I think it was a 351. Okay.
30:50
Different manifold and similar performance but just a slightly
30:54
different approach. And these are mostly black if I recall, right?
30:58
Yeah. A handful of other colors, silver, white or something. Yeah, maybe white.
31:02
Yeah. Okay. And then this was before I guess the cyclone as well
31:06
right? Just before? Or about the same time? I don't think so. I think
31:10
they're about the same. Same, okay. All the look and see I can
31:14
Yeah, I think you had an idea. And to be honest at that time, you know,
31:18
I was, you know, a young teenager the cyclone was the one that I wanted. That was the one
31:22
that I that really caught my eye but. Yeah.
31:26
And then but, you know, it's interesting too because you end up with sort of these
31:30
you know, cars that were vehicles that were groundbreaking at the time
31:34
but, you know, kind of all wheel drive, turbo charge
31:42
you know, that became kind of the standard
31:46
for most vehicles these days. Yeah.
31:50
And so whereas, you know, a real wheel drive big block
31:54
track is, you know, still not very common on the market
31:58
now. So. Right. And this is what, you know, this is a
32:02
progression, but, you know, this is kind of the, I think the challenge that
32:06
a car like the Porsche 95 Vine has is that, you know, that
32:10
it was so advanced, but it was kind of accurately predicted
32:14
future Porsche 911 Supercars
32:18
and so it's kind of like you don't need to spend
32:22
two to three million dollars for all wheel drive 911
32:26
with a turbo charger because it's, you know,
32:30
available still. Yeah.
32:34
You're absolutely right. That, you know, that cyclone, I remember the
32:38
454 being nearly as quick, but that cyclone
32:42
Yeah. No, I'm sure it's faster. Yeah, it's interesting, but two very different
32:46
ways of going about the same problem, I guess. Yeah.
32:50
The next one on the list is the 06 to 2013 Chevy Corvette
32:54
06 and this is a car I think that's finally getting its
32:58
right. You could pick one up pretty cheaply there for a long time and. Yeah.
33:02
Yeah. No, and I, you know, and again, it's kind of like
33:06
I think certainly as the C8 has gone
33:10
mid-engine and, you know, and that's now like
33:14
forced-induction. You have this sort of unusual
33:18
drivetrain combination, which is seven-liter
33:22
rear-wheel-drive, front-engine car,
33:26
manual transmission, naturally aspirated. So it's
33:30
you kind of end up with these cars where it's, no, they're not
33:34
necessarily cheap, but it's also sort of something that isn't
33:38
it's not something you can find easily in the market. And so
33:42
that's partly why it's on this list. Yeah. Well, hell of a lot of car for the money
33:46
for sure. Yeah. Yeah.
33:50
So the 69 to 72 Alfa Romeo GTV. This is a car
33:54
you never saw them around. And now you see them everywhere.
33:58
They really came out of the woodwork, but they're such wonderful cars in every way.
34:02
Yeah. No, I think, I mean, this is kind of
34:06
one of the challenges of the bull market list is sometimes we get
34:10
a bit specific. And so
34:14
in this case, it's we're picking out the 1750
34:18
which is kind of the late 60s,
34:22
70s version, but not the two liter,
34:26
2000 GTV, which has kind of a different grill
34:34
more power and as fast or as a two liter, but
34:38
there's the sort of, I think the
34:42
efficient auto take is that the 1750 is a little bit sweeter
34:46
and maybe revs a little bit easier. I think they are
34:50
rare cars. It's a little bit hard to say how many
34:54
are surviving and around on the market, but
34:58
the other sort of difference, and this is if you're
35:02
reading or paying attention, the
35:06
my level of insight into the 454 SS
35:10
versus the Alphas tell it shouldn't be telling, but
35:14
the other thing that I think can be helpful for this car is
35:18
I think the 69 had this flying buttress seat
35:22
design, which is sort of as with the Porsche
35:26
world, there's sort of one year only model year differences
35:30
and everybody sort of goes crazy over. So I think there's
35:34
a few factors that help this
35:38
vehicle become more collectible.
35:42
I think something else about this car, starting to interrupt, is that it really has become a great alternative
35:46
to an old Porsche, and those have just skyrocketed
35:50
right? Yeah, and I think
35:54
there's a little bit of that event
35:58
eligibility thing, where it's like if you can take it to an event or a show
36:02
that's suitable for the car, then that's really helpful.
36:06
In Southern California there's sort of now
36:10
this Italian car show
36:14
similar to Lyftico, the
36:18
air-cooled Porsche show where, and this one is
36:26
again, it's like if you want to, if you like that event
36:30
or want to have a car in that event, this is getting a 1750 GT
36:34
that's probably a good place to start. Yeah, and I think too, when you see
36:38
people start to singify vehicles,
36:42
and you know these other outfits, I think that's a sign that there's something to do it, right?
36:46
Yeah, for sure, yeah. Can you talk a little bit more?
36:50
I'm very curious about the flying buttress seats that you mentioned.
36:54
I think they're, so it's
36:58
a little bit like a bucket seat.
37:02
And I'm not certain, but I'm assuming
37:06
that they're inspired by a Zagato
37:10
seat design, which is that you basically have a seat
37:14
and then Zagato, which was just a kind of a tubular steel frame
37:18
with some padding and some vinyl or leather or something
37:22
or cloth covering. But Zagato would have seats
37:26
where they'd kind of weld this little diagonal
37:30
that went from the three quarters up the seat back to the
37:34
front of the seat and then there'd be like a little pad on the side. So it was very much
37:38
just like a kind of improvised steel frame
37:42
bucket seat. And so I think this seat
37:46
probably is a little bit different take on that where
37:50
it's not quite the same steel tubing behind it, but it's a little, and it's sort of
37:54
curved at the side of the
37:58
seat back and it kind of just helps you stay in place a little bit better.
38:02
That's so interesting. Yeah, yeah, it's all these nuances, you know.
38:06
Alphas are good for that though, aren't they? Right.
38:10
I mean, and I think there's a lot of,
38:14
maybe it's a sign of the collectability of a vehicle is when people,
38:18
Gorbet people, Porsche, will never start getting into the
38:22
specifics of a particular car. Right, right. Yeah.
38:26
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39:10
Yeah. Well, moving on again to a newer car,
39:14
2006 to 2010 BMW M5, this of course is the 500 horsepower
39:18
V10. Right. It was the one year they put a V10 in an M5
39:22
and I think this is a car where, you know, the ones that are left are the good ones, right?
39:26
Like they got cheap for a while, you know, young people had them, burned them up, you know,
39:30
crashed them, whatever. And so the ones that are left are really the good ones. It was a very
39:34
different character, right? Than I think the M5's before and the M5's
39:38
after. And also the styling was really divisive.
39:42
Yeah. Has it been angle era? Yeah. This is the
39:46
yeah, the bunny sharp hide one headlight
39:50
car. I mean, in, you know, this
39:54
similar to some of the other cars on the list, including the Corvette C6,
39:58
you know, this is an unusual, sort of, relatively large
40:02
displacement naturally aspirated engine with 500 horsepower.
40:06
I think there's three cars on the list with 500 horsepower.
40:10
But yeah, I mean, it's, you know, and there's a little bit of element
40:14
of substitution where, you know, I think a lot of people like
40:18
the predecessor M5, which is the E39 with the 5
40:22
liter V8 or 4.9 liter V8. It has a manual transmission
40:26
as sort of more traditional
40:30
styling. Right. But, you know, it's so, you
40:34
end up with this kind of dynamic where it's like, yes, that car is collectible
40:38
and valuable, but like this is also an interesting car and maybe is undervalued.
40:42
And yeah, and Ryan, as you've pointed out,
40:46
you know, a lot of these got used up or broke and people then
40:50
could go forward to fix them for a variety of reasons.
40:54
But, you know, the other thing that's interesting to write with this is that, you know,
40:58
we've seen a lot of, I think about 10%
41:02
of the cars sold new in the US have since been
41:06
exported. So that's sort of, it's not just that, you know, they've been
41:10
crashed or, you know, not maintained or something like that, but they just, they're not
41:14
here anymore. Interesting. And so that's an unusual. Do you know where they went? Yeah, good question.
41:18
Probably back to Europe, but potentially other places too.
41:22
So, and it's not, you know, and it could be that they just have
41:26
potentially in Europe, they have better appreciation for
41:30
the car and the performance. And, you know,
41:34
there's certainly like the manual transmission cars that were available here in the US
41:38
are at a premium. I think it's potentially like 50% more.
41:42
But, you know, part of it is, I think that the
41:46
7-speed SMG sequential manual gearbox,
41:50
automated single clutch transmission is like, yes, there are some
41:54
issues with it, but also, you know, some of those issues
41:58
are becoming, are getting sorted out. So I think
42:02
that helps the car kind of become a little bit more
42:06
collectible. And John, people are now sentimental for those
42:10
first generation, you know. Yeah, no, yeah.
42:14
SMG type transmission, it's like the Mercilago and, you know, it's like, you know,
42:18
it's funny how things come around. Yeah, I will, you know,
42:22
and this is again, sort of the fun thing of working for Agony with the data
42:26
that we have available is that there's a peculiar phenomenon
42:30
that is in the market, which is that
42:34
Ferraris and Lamborghinis and BMWs,
42:38
you know, were sold in sort of that
42:42
2000s era, 2010s era with
42:46
these single clutch automated manual transmission cars.
42:54
E46, so 2000s, early 2000s,
42:58
BMW M3 to a manual transmission car,
43:02
it tends to, you know, gain in value. People like that transmission of that car
43:06
better, the manual. Yeah.
43:10
If you convert and, you know, BMW built lots of manuals of that car too.
43:14
That's interesting. Like, considering how many of those
43:18
were manual to start. Right, yeah, but it's, you know, some of the
43:22
and a little bit of it is that people didn't, maybe didn't drive
43:26
the SMG cars as much because they didn't like the transmission.
43:30
Different kind of customer. So it's in the U.S. fewer miles and they spent,
43:34
you know, they got it in an unusual color and things like that.
43:38
The other thing though of this is that
43:42
if people convert like a Ferrari F1 transmission
43:46
to a manual transmission gated shift car,
43:50
it doesn't tend to help the value of the car and it's a strange
43:54
dynamic where I think people really just go after Ferrari
43:58
collectors really just go after the rarity of the manual transmission
44:02
car and, you know, and they get the, they still
44:06
have the Ferrari factory blessing.
44:10
Whereas, so it's a strange dynamic of this market where it's like some people
44:14
and some cars do well and
44:18
appreciate when you convert them to a manual and other cars don't.
44:22
Interesting. Do you think that's like, I don't know if you have
44:26
the data if this is something that you have visibility into, but do you think it's
44:30
the usability of cars? I mean, when I think of an E46,
44:34
I know a lot of those are, like at this point they're old enough people are looking at them as track cars.
44:38
Yeah. And I would imagine that's less common
44:42
in the Ferrari world. Is that something that you see? Yeah, I mean
44:46
I think the Ferrari is still a lot more sensitive to mileage than some of the other
44:50
makes and things and so it is very much like the fewer the miles,
44:54
the better or the more valuable the car. Right.
44:58
This Wild is a V10 in a midsize sports sedan seems now.
45:02
I mean, let's forget Audi was doing it with the S6.
45:06
Yeah. I don't think that was nearly the rocket that the M5 was with
45:10
similar power, but yeah, those were kind of strange days, right?
45:14
Yeah. Manufacturers. Right.
45:18
BMW had an F1 team and was
45:22
so long ago. And when you think about it now
45:26
in terms of like there's so much talk about engagement these days, which wasn't
45:30
as much kind of in the ether at that time, but think about
45:34
love them or hate them, those cars certainly generated engagement
45:38
when they debuted. Yeah.
45:42
Moving on, one I don't know a ton about. I remember them around
45:46
back in the day, but they never seemed common even then, which maybe factors into
45:50
why it's on this list, but the 1981 to 1993 and that's shocking that
45:54
they made it up to 1993, but the Dodge Ram Charger, which was
45:58
sort of a Bronco competitor, I guess you could call it. Yeah.
46:02
And as with some of the other vehicles on the list, you know, this is a little bit
46:06
of a substitution play where it's, you know, people
46:10
remember the Broncos or the Blazers and that's, you know, and they're
46:14
potentially easier to find, but, you know, this is a very similar experience
46:18
of those, but at a potentially lower price point. And so it can be
46:22
worth looking for some of these. And, you know, it does, it's kind of
46:26
it's very much that era before Dodge came out with that
46:30
look pickup truck in the 90s. And so I think this
46:34
does has, you know, kind of fallen off
46:38
the radar of a lot of enthusiasts. Sure. One of the great
46:42
hood ornaments of all time, too. Yeah. Right. Did they make very many
46:46
Ram Charger? No, like did they make very many Ram Chargers
46:50
when you compare to how many Broncos and like the K5 Blazer would have been a competitor
46:54
at that point? Right. Yeah. Good point. Yeah. I think it's probably a much rarer truck
46:58
because like just, you know, and partly in
47:02
with the sales, lack of sales of sort of the similar Dodge
47:06
Ram trucks at that time, you know, I think the
47:10
Ram Charger was probably also a much smaller part of the
47:14
market for that kind of full size two door SUV.
47:18
Well, when you think about how much of the market the Bronco and the Blazer
47:22
had, you know, that would have been an uphill battle, but it's funny
47:26
that you mentioned the Ram Charger because I actually saw one over Christmas in person.
47:30
I could not believe it. On the road. Right. Last from the past.
47:34
Yeah, it was wild. And I only know.
47:38
Right. So the next one, I think probably the 25 year
47:42
rule has something to do with this one. It's the 95 to 98% skyline
47:46
GTR. I mean, I think it's
47:50
charms are pretty clear to all of us, but what else is factored into
47:54
that being on the list? Yeah.
47:58
This is maybe echoing, you know, the last picture, but
48:02
there's a bit of substitution with this one is that, you know,
48:06
the predecessor, the R32 kind of
48:10
groundbreaking all wheel drive skyline
48:14
that was only sold in Japan as well. You know, that
48:18
gets a lot of attention for being kind of the first
48:22
debut of this era of
48:25
skylines. And then, you know, the succeeding the
48:28
third generation skyline, the R34, that's the, you know, been in
48:32
lots of movies and is sort of seen as much more sort of
48:36
pretty or a better design.
48:40
You know, the R33 is kind of this
48:44
forgotten middle child of that skyline generation
48:48
where it's and, you know, and so the values kind of reflect that
48:51
where it's, you know, it's much less common
48:54
and, you know, the values of it are a lot lower,
48:57
especially relative to the some of the other ones. So it's
49:00
it's, you know, a third of the
49:03
value of like an R34. Interesting.
49:06
And, you know, we've already seen sort of this
49:09
pickup of transition
49:12
of imports of the R34
49:15
relative to R33. And so it's kind of like there's
49:18
potentially already a cap on the
49:21
R33's. And so, and in the volume
49:24
number of vehicles available in this in the country. So
49:29
pretends well for its appreciation relative to
49:32
the R34. Was this still the gentlemen's agreement
49:35
era of the 276 horsepower on paper?
49:38
But you know, it's amazing how much
49:41
things have changed, right? You know, how quickly that
49:45
But you know, and the other thing too that
49:48
with Nissan and that sort of their, you know, gradually
49:51
doing kind of heritage
49:54
parts and things is that they're actually
49:57
have, you know, looked into this and said, you know, oh,
50:00
you know, it is interesting how many skylines are now
50:03
in the U.S. And maybe this is
50:06
something that we should help out with or kind of
50:09
make more parts, reintroduce parts for these cars and things.
50:12
And so that is something that we've seen is that
50:15
they're now, you know, gradually starting to reintroduce
50:18
parts for the skyline, which I think will help their
50:20
usability. Well, I mean, Nissan has
50:23
such a performance heritage and it always bothered me
50:26
for so long, you know, how they didn't tap into
50:29
it. And it's good to see them doing that again, you know.
50:32
Two more cars on the list. The 95 to 98
50:35
Volkswagen Golf, GTI, BR6. Again, this is one
50:38
as a young person I would have killed for, you
50:41
know, and now I think in retrospect, you know, we
50:44
realize how special they were, right? Yeah. And, you know,
50:47
and as with like the Miata or so, you know, this
50:50
is a car of attrition where there's not
50:53
any of them around anymore. Certainly not
50:56
that are in nice condition because it was such a
50:59
popular high school car. Yeah. And, you know,
51:02
we know how high schoolers treat their cars.
51:05
But it's, it is, yeah. So it's, you know,
51:08
and this is an interesting car, too, because it's
51:11
the BR6, which is much more sort of has
51:14
better performance than the sort of 1.8
51:17
and the four cylinders. So it's an
51:20
interesting kind of difference. And, you know,
51:23
and again, this is, you know, as Volkswagen has
51:26
kind of moved away from the, you know, the
51:29
GTI is, I think maybe and is no longer
51:32
available in this country. And certainly
51:35
or at least the, you know, the manual
51:38
options gone away and things. And so it's
51:40
it's much more of the an eagle for
51:43
a golf bar or something. So, you know,
51:46
finding something that's like a BR6
51:49
with a manual transmission and naturally aspirated
51:51
is a pretty desirable option.
51:54
Yeah, for sure. For sure. And the last
51:57
car on the list is a car I think we can all get behind
51:59
wholeheartedly. It's the Porsche
52:02
GT, but why this year?
52:05
It's a good, it's a neat car because it's, you know,
52:08
as with some of these others, it's, you know, it's not
52:11
Porsche just doesn't really offer this anymore, which is
52:14
this mid-engine car with a V10 engine that's naturally
52:17
aspirated and a manual transmission. And so,
52:20
you know, and certainly it's, you know, it's a
52:23
seven-figure car. But I think there's a few
52:26
factors that are starting to help its value
52:29
appreciation. One is, you know, they did the
52:32
suspension recall recently a couple years ago. And so
52:35
the cars are now pretty much better to drive.
52:39
You know, tire technologies advanced greatly in the
52:42
past 20 years. So Michelin can sell
52:45
tires that are much more sort of appropriate for
52:48
the vehicle. And then, you know, kind of at the
52:52
high end of the market, you know, there is
52:55
kind of this better understanding of, you know,
52:58
yes, most of them are GT silver or
53:02
steel gray or something. But there are, I think
53:06
that's, you know, I think, let me see, I think
53:08
there's something like 57 paint sample cars.
53:12
And, you know, maybe about half of them were sold
53:15
in the rest of the world and fewer than half
53:18
were sold in the US. And so those paint
53:21
sample cars are, you know, and that's 57 out
53:24
of about 1270 or so that were built.
53:28
And so those cars we're finding, seeing are
53:32
becoming very valuable. We have this sort of...
53:35
What's the gulf there? What's the gulf there
53:37
with the paint sample cars?
53:39
Yeah, it can be a little tough to identify it,
53:42
but we recently, we occasionally will do
53:45
this thing called the pricing out for our
53:48
price guide values, which is that if the car
53:51
is, like, if it's a 1963 Chevrolet Corvette
53:56
06 with a big gas tank or a small gas tank,
54:00
you know, sometimes, you know, it's the...
54:03
One of the tanks has, like, is worth another
54:06
$50,000, something like that. So in this
54:09
case, what we've determined is that
54:12
these paint-to-sample Porsche Curve GTs
54:15
can be worth 50% more than sort of a
54:18
similar sort of regular production car.
54:21
And so that's, yeah, it's a...
54:24
I wonder what a premium it was at the time.
54:26
I know I have a sense of, like, if you go
54:28
and get a new, you know, GT3, what that paint costs,
54:31
but, you know, I mean, just think of the...
54:34
how that investment paid off, right?
54:37
Just the paint that's wild.
54:39
Well, it's about the thing that you think about
54:41
at the time, like, now everybody's familiar
54:43
with paint-to-sample and paying more for a color,
54:46
but that concept at the time was newish
54:49
or much less common.
54:51
So then to look at whatever the premium was,
54:54
I would imagine it was even more, you know, striking.
54:57
Yeah, I mean, I think you had to know
55:00
that you could do it. And so, yeah,
55:03
I think it was unusual.
55:05
Now everyone does it, so, you know,
55:07
I think in GT Silver is the move 20 years from now, right?
55:10
At least that's what I'm hoping.
55:12
Yeah, the move is to pointedly not do PTS.
55:14
You know, clients white or something.
55:17
You just don't see any more, right?
55:19
Well, John, I know they had...
55:21
there was the Carrera GT that I think Porsche did
55:24
a full restoration on, and it's that blue one.
55:27
I think it's called Speedster Blue.
55:30
Yeah, I think, I mean, they've done a couple,
55:32
I think, and there was an Oak Green car
55:34
that they did, too, that was...
55:36
And so those, that's the other kind of option
55:39
is to go back, send it back to Porsche Special Wishes
55:43
and get a restored Carrera GT
55:47
and a different color or something.
55:49
We've got the Canapa cars now, too, right?
55:51
You know, he's done dozens, I think,
55:53
which is kind of wild to think about, right?
55:56
Because they seem like these sacred cows,
55:58
and then, you know, he's redoing them
56:00
at even that much more of a premium.
56:02
So, you know, I was looking through this list,
56:04
and I've followed this for a while for years,
56:07
and it struck me, you know,
56:09
are there any cars that come up year after year,
56:11
that never make the final list,
56:13
Always the bridesmaid,
56:14
never the bull market bride kind of thing?
56:19
I don't know, there's...
56:20
Sometimes, so there are a couple...
56:22
Some of the behind-the-scenes things is one...
56:27
We have to be able to find one to photograph it
56:31
and put it in the magazine.
56:33
And so, if we can't find one
56:35
or don't think that we can find one,
56:37
then that sort of means it's not on the list.
56:40
So, that shapes what happens.
56:43
The other thing is that one of the sort of things
56:47
to look out for is some of these cars,
56:50
you know, we didn't carry or we didn't have
56:52
in the Pagity Price Guide a year ago.
56:55
And so, as we, you know,
56:57
in some cases, if you're kind of anticipating
56:59
like a future pick and something seems like
57:03
it should be covered in the Pagity Price Guide,
57:05
but it isn't, then that could be
57:07
a potentially good pick in the future.
57:09
So, in this case, like for example,
57:14
like we didn't have that values in that
57:17
in the Pagity Price Guide a year ago,
57:19
but we've since added it
57:21
because we feel like it's becoming
57:23
collectible despite its appearances and things.
57:25
So, yeah, those are kind of the things.
57:28
So, if there are vehicles where, you know,
57:34
it's some unusual car,
57:36
say a Nissan Pulsar GT-IR
57:40
that, you know, is potentially fun,
57:44
but very hard to track down,
57:46
you know, we may not have put it on the list.
57:48
I'm laughing because I literally
57:50
took a picture of a Pulsar NX last night.
57:52
I hadn't seen one in a long time.
57:54
And it wasn't anything special, but it had,
57:56
you know, you could get the different rear-ends,
57:58
do more of the tops.
58:00
You can snap in a fastback or a wagon,
58:02
and this was the wagon,
58:03
and I almost sent it to you, Lindsay,
58:05
and I thought you're going to...
58:06
I thought it was like a bridge too far.
58:08
You know, I'm always up for spotting,
58:13
I mean, I feel like you and Dan are the poor recipients
58:15
of my constant, like, look at this.
58:17
I mean, you guys were talking, like,
58:19
I saw an R34 Skyline
58:21
riding on Drive at Christmas
58:23
and immediately sent it to Dan and Ryan.
58:27
It's no Defender, but that's another car.
58:29
It's going to mix it up every now and then, right?
58:34
So, John, obviously this is but one small part
58:36
of your role at Hagerty.
58:38
I'm sure you are also heavily involved
58:40
with the auction side of things with Broad Arrow, right?
58:44
I mean, we, you know, we try to,
58:46
because we're looking at the whole market,
58:48
we do try to maintain some neutrality
58:51
of some of the auctions,
58:54
and, you know, and further,
58:56
we won't necessarily call out, you know,
58:58
this auction, this auction company
59:01
did really well or did really poorly or something like that.
59:03
So, we do try to just kind of
59:07
observe what's happening in the market and things.
59:10
It's a judgment free zone.
59:14
I imagine the online auctions in particular
59:16
have really skewed right values,
59:18
especially the more accessible cars.
59:21
And, you know, and there's kind of one,
59:24
certainly that availability
59:27
and being able to find a particular car,
59:30
you know, and certainly with an online auction,
59:33
it has helped become,
59:35
helped a lot of cars become more collectible.
59:37
So, that sort of, you know,
59:40
in particular with live auctions,
59:42
you know, there's only so much time
59:44
that a car can cross the block
59:46
and, you know, in so many hours in the day and things,
59:49
but with an online auction,
59:50
there's so much more sort of breadth
59:52
and scale and things.
59:54
So, it's a, so I think those,
59:56
that format of auction has really helped
59:59
and sort of broadening out what's considered collectible.
00:04
I don't think, you know, you go back a few years,
00:06
I don't think anyone saw that coming.
00:10
It's a really remarkable change.
00:14
We do see that the online auction market has,
00:17
you know, they've long sold more vehicles
00:20
than live auctions, but it's, you know,
00:22
their total sales and dollars
00:24
has really, has now taken the lead
00:28
So, I think they're doing about $1.7 billion
00:31
in sales in North America last year.
00:35
So, and that's, I think the live auctions
00:39
were about $1.4 billion in sales.
00:42
So, they've gotten a pretty good size lead now.
00:45
It's just one of those things I just thought
00:47
never would be, right?
00:48
Like Uber or, you know, I mean, just like that doesn't...
00:51
Why would anybody do that?
00:55
You're just like Amazon first started and you're like,
00:57
oh yeah, I'm going to order a book online
00:59
and I'll actually get it.
01:03
The world has changed so much in such a short amount
01:05
of time and continues to do so.
01:09
So, can you give us sort of a look into,
01:13
I don't know, the next five years,
01:14
10 years, 20 years, like general trends.
01:16
I know you're not a, you know,
01:18
can't read the future, but...
01:19
Get out the crystal ball.
01:23
Well, we started forecasting dies a little bit.
01:26
I won't get into that, but we do make year-end predictions
01:30
for some predictions for this year, 2026.
01:34
And then we'll also score our prior year's predictions.
01:38
And so, occasionally we are pretty accurate.
01:41
Other times we've had a lot of misses.
01:44
But one of the things in sort of one of the general trends,
01:50
I will say one of the predictions that we made,
01:53
and this was kind of a little bit jokingly,
01:56
but it was well entirely joking,
01:58
was that, you know, we get a lot of kind of requests
02:03
from people saying, you know,
02:05
I have this Ferrari, Porsche, Corvette, something,
02:08
and, you know, and I think I want to ensure it
02:13
And it's, you know, well, what is that based on?
02:16
And, you know, and it turns out oftentimes
02:20
that we're getting these requests where it's some,
02:22
you know, it's some AI chatbot that sort of pulls in data
02:25
and says, you know, based on this listing price of this car,
02:29
you know, it's now we think this with this mileage
02:32
and then this color, we think it's, you know,
02:35
And so we tend to like push back on that.
02:37
So one of our predictions on that was, you know,
02:40
and this is because oftentimes asking prices
02:43
are not what's actually the price that's paid.
02:47
And, but, you know, our 10th prediction of for 2026
02:51
that was that Pontiac Aztec will be worth $100,000.
02:58
So we'll see, we'll check to come back
03:00
and see if we get any requests
03:02
for sort of $100,000 Pontiac Aztec.
03:06
That car was so ahead of its time, you know,
03:10
and, you know, it's just, it's, it's,
03:13
I wonder how much of that was the fault of the car
03:16
and how much of that was the fault of the marketing
03:19
and, you know, everything else.
03:20
Yeah, I'm a design.
03:21
I think it was the marketing, but,
03:23
a lot of plastic and play too.
03:26
So my husband just moved here from Albuquerque
03:29
and when he was in Albuquerque,
03:31
his daily driver was one of the Aztecs
03:33
in the Breaking Bad color with the mismatch wheels
03:36
for like a year and a half.
03:38
And he raves about it.
03:39
He's like, you know, I think it's a great car.
03:42
Never left him stranded like super capable.
03:46
Well, and, you know, I mean, if it,
03:48
if there ends up being the Pontiac Aztec tour
03:52
that, you know, visits the Peninsula hotel
03:57
or something and somewhere,
03:59
then maybe it will turn into a six-figure car.
04:02
But everyone will say,
04:03
Haggerty knew it all along.
04:07
John, I have learned a lot tonight.
04:09
I mean, this has really been fascinating.
04:11
I think we could talk to you for another hour very easily.
04:14
But one important question we didn't ask,
04:17
and that's what's in your garage.
04:22
One, my daily driver is a 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia.
04:28
Just the four-cylinder.
04:31
And I got that, you know, off-lease.
04:34
It's a fun, you know, kind of usable car,
04:37
but it's a little bit different.
04:40
So that's a nice car.
04:42
I've had that about five, six years now.
04:44
So, yeah, it's a good car.
04:49
The other car I've had long.
04:51
We accept that answer.
04:54
The other car I've had longer,
04:56
it's, you know, sort of one of these,
04:59
as Dave Kinney would say, you know,
05:03
Don't buy something for appreciation potential.
05:07
But it's a 2006 Maserati Grand Sport Spider,
05:12
which I bought cheaply.
05:15
And then, you know,
05:17
spent a lot to sort of catch up on maintenance.
05:20
And, you know, it's not vintage
05:24
and it's not that modern.
05:27
But it was my only car for a while.
05:30
And, yeah, and, you know,
05:34
we spoke earlier about sort of these
05:36
automated single clutch transmissions.
05:40
I think in this car it's the right transmission.
05:44
And obviously I ask because I have one.
05:47
You know, it's not, I don't think people
05:51
need to be using the clutch pedal,
05:54
you know, sort of the,
05:55
whatever the original design brief was,
05:57
it wasn't the, you know, full track driving
06:02
engagement kind of thing.
06:04
So I think it suits the car.
06:06
I don't feel like it's, it's not perfect.
06:08
But I think it works pretty well.
06:10
So I almost bought a coupe back.
06:16
I mean, that, you know,
06:17
you've got the, is it the,
06:18
the 360 or the 430 engine up front?
06:20
It's the, it's based on the 430 engine.
06:23
And so when it came out, you know,
06:25
before, before the 430 had it,
06:28
it is the 4.2 format.
06:31
It's dry sump, you know,
06:33
as a 4 cam, 390 horsepower,
06:40
So I think it's a lot of car for the money.
06:44
That is an enthusiast garage, John.
06:49
That's a pretty great lineup.
06:53
I'd like to get something more vintage at some point,
06:58
but I need to find space for it.
07:01
And those, I feel like those spiders in those coupes,
07:03
they're coming up too, aren't they?
07:04
People are finally kind of catching up.
07:10
You know, and this is,
07:12
it's kind of as with a lot of things,
07:17
the liquidity of the market helps it.
07:19
And so I think as more of them appear on the market
07:22
and there's buttons sold and there's sort of,
07:25
you know, and this is actually speaking of,
07:27
this is the, those, that era,
07:29
Maserati Coupes spider,
07:31
we don't cover in the Hagerty price guide yet.
07:34
So it's not really something that we have.
07:38
We don't see the demand to have it in the guide
07:41
and we'd also don't really have the transaction data
07:50
Well, John, I feel like you're kind of living the dream.
07:52
You know, you're working for Hagerty,
07:53
you know, doing what you're doing.
07:54
I mean, you really have the best of both of your worlds.
07:58
You're doing a pretty cool thing.
08:00
And I think, you know,
08:02
the work you do is only going to play more and more
08:04
into the, this, this enthusiast world,
08:06
you know, moving forward for a number of reasons.
08:08
So I think your timing is perfect too.
08:10
You know, these are anything else.
08:14
my question is what has been the most surprising thing
08:19
that you have either experienced or that you've seen
08:22
in the trends, putting, you know,
08:24
as you're putting the list together or like,
08:27
what's something that people assume about valuations
08:30
that is like totally incorrect?
08:33
Well, I mean, to me,
08:35
the surprising thing is,
08:37
is kind of this stereotype or belief that,
08:43
you know, people collect the thing that they liked,
08:47
you know, when, when they were 16 years old.
08:51
And, you know, and yes, I think that's,
08:54
that probably was true and or it needs to be,
08:58
there needs to be a sort of a follow-up,
09:00
which was that, you know,
09:01
it doesn't need to have been the car that was for sale new
09:05
when they were 16 years old.
09:07
It could be the car that was,
09:09
and this is the follow-up podcast or something,
09:14
but you know, one of the things with the Miata,
09:17
the N.A. Miata, which is the 1990 to 1997 built car,
09:22
that is the most commonly quoted vehicle of Gen Z.
09:30
And Gen Z, the oldest Gen Z-ers,
09:34
as far as Haggerty was concerned,
09:36
is they were born in 1997.
09:38
So this car was out of production by the time
09:41
the oldest of those were born.
09:43
So that, you know, for me,
09:46
that's kind of the surprising thing that we see is that,
09:48
you know, people like vehicles,
09:51
but there isn't, there's less and less of a sort of
09:53
association of like the new vehicles of their era.
09:58
That it's like a guarantee, hard and fast rule,
10:01
that it's like whatever was new when they were in high school.
10:03
Yeah, I think that used to be the case,
10:06
but it's no longer.
10:07
Well, and you talked about looking at, you know,
10:09
lifestyle and kind of usability and versatility of the car,
10:12
and they can make a good point with, you know,
10:14
this is the car, or the people quoting this particular car
10:17
were born that year,
10:19
so they obviously weren't aware of it at the time.
10:21
Right, but yeah, I mean, now they see that they can do,
10:24
you know, driving tours or events or something with it,
10:28
and so it has speaks to them in some other way,
10:30
besides sort of the car that they wanted
10:32
when they were about to get their driver's license.
10:34
Yeah, well, and you look at two, I mean,
10:36
you mentioned movies earlier with the Skyline,
10:39
like maybe the cars weren't brand new,
10:42
but if you look at the movies that were like coming out
10:45
when they were learning to drive,
10:47
that's going to influence their likes too,
10:49
and it might not be a car that was brand new at the time, too.
10:51
Yeah, Tom Toretto drove one.
10:55
Maybe you don't want that car, maybe you do, right?
10:58
Yeah, you read my mind.
11:00
We can't argue with the data.
11:02
And John Wiley, it's really been a pleasure having you on.
11:05
So again, John, you are Hagerty's director of valuation analytics,
11:11
and it's been a fascinating conversation.
11:13
Thank you very much.
11:14
And I would love to have you back.
11:16
I know, you know, we got to have you back.
11:18
There's got to be a part two to this.
11:19
There's so much more to talk about.
11:23
And you're obviously a true enthusiast as well
11:25
as evidenced by your two-car solution.
11:28
And it's really been fun.
11:30
Thank you so much for joining us.
11:31
Lindsay, thank you.
11:32
Appreciate having you.
11:33
Yeah, I appreciate having you.
11:36
Until next time, John Wiley.
11:38
And this has been that car show, Lindsay.
11:42
And remember, always be driving.
11:44
And we'll see you next week.