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#440 - Are You Starting the Trade Conversation Too Late?

#440 - Are You Starting the Trade Conversation Too Late?

The Independent Dealer Podcast Jul 16, 2026 27 min
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About this episode

Dealers are getting squeezed from multiple angles—EV demand is rising, but financing and trade values are harder to pin down. The hosts tie EV price volatility to a need for a “velocity model,” explain why battery warranty pricing lags risk, and connect used-condition to subprime-driven repos. The core trade lesson: start the conversation earlier in the “low balance” cycle—around $6,500—and remarket as loans near the end. They also discuss using AI dashboards and flexible, car-club-style programs to keep customers cycling.

Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Term

ED sales

"[345.7s] Well, ED sales ramping up. [348.5s] And, you know, we've talked about ED sales. [350.5s] You and I talk about ED sales when it comes to Tesla's more than anything."

“ED sales” here means electric-vehicle sales. They’re talking about how many EVs people are buying and how that’s shifting by location.

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Lucid
Matti Blume (CC BY-SA)
Car

Lucid

"[399.4s] So I'm interested to see that technology in a different car besides Tesla. [404.7s] We were talking about Lucid's too. [406.4s] I think Lucid's a really good looking car."

Lucid is a company that makes electric cars. In this segment, they’re saying Lucid’s cars look great and they’re interested in what it offers beyond Tesla.

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Car

Cadillac EVs

"We need to start learning about the Cadillac EVs look amazing. [424.7s] I don't know if they're any good, but they look amazing, right?"

Cadillac is a luxury car brand. The host is saying Cadillac’s electric cars look great, even though they’re not sure how good they are.

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Term

direct to consumer

"Outselling franchises in the direct-to-consumer brands. [436.4s] So the Rivians, the Teslas, the Lucid's..."

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) describes how some EV brands sell cars without relying on the traditional franchise dealer network. That can affect how easily independent dealers can access trade-ins and used inventory from those brands.

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Car

Rivians

"So the Rivians, the Teslas, the Lucid's, if they got any fiskers laying around, maybe they'll sell a fiskier."

Rivian makes electric vehicles, especially trucks and SUVs. The host is mentioning it as one of the EV brands independents are now selling.

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Car

Teslas

"So the Rivians, the Teslas, the Lucid's, if they got any fiskers laying around, maybe they'll sell a fiskier."

Tesla is a company that makes electric cars. The host is using it as an example of EVs that independents are now selling more often.

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Car

Lucid's

"So the Rivians, the Teslas, the Lucid's, if they got any fiskers laying around, maybe they'll sell a fiskier."

Lucid makes electric luxury cars. The host is just naming it as another EV brand independents are selling.

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Cadillac
Eckhard Henkel (CC BY-SA 3.0 de)
Car

Cadillac

"Where's your Cadillac and your Hyundai? [452.2s] They're going to get off-leases."

Cadillac is a luxury car brand. Here it’s mentioned in the context of where dealers get inventory, like cars coming off leases.

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Hyundai
SealyPhoto (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Car

Hyundai

"Where's your Cadillac and your Hyundai? [452.2s] They're going to get off-leases."

Hyundai is a car brand. The host is saying Hyundai, like Cadillac, will have cars coming off leases that dealers can sell.

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Term

off-lease

"They're going to get off-leases. [453.7s] Yeah, they're going to have first dibs at most of the off-lease stuff."

Off-leases are cars that are coming back after a lease ends. Dealers can buy them and resell them, so having access to them helps you keep inventory on your lot.

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Term

banks

"And I think one thing we run into on the one Tesla we have, so it's not a good sample size of what we're doing. [476.4s] What we found is that certain banks don't really want to finance EVs in the retail space."

Here, “banks” means the companies that lend money for car purchases. The host is saying some lenders are hesitant to finance EVs, which can make it harder for buyers to get approved.

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Term

subprime buyers

"And maybe we've had more subprime buyers looking at buying these EVs. [490.4s] But there should be a market disruptor..."

Subprime buyers are people with lower credit scores. Lenders may be more cautious with them, and the host is saying that EV financing can be harder for this group.

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Term

ICE cars

"if you want to talk cost per mile, EVs are by far cheaper than ICE cars to maintain and to operate. [514.6s] So why would subprime banks not want to finance EVs..."

ICE cars are gas or diesel cars that use an engine instead of an electric motor. The host is comparing them to EVs on running costs.

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Term

cost per mile

"And to take that a step further, if you want to talk cost per mile, EVs are by far cheaper than ICE cars to maintain and to operate. [514.6s] So why would subprime banks not want to finance EVs..."

Cost per mile means “how much it costs to drive one mile.” The host is saying EVs tend to be cheaper to run than gas cars.

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Term

price volatility

"I think the only answer I have is just the price volatility of the vehicles themselves. [527.4s] So obviously they'd appreciate very fast up front historically."

Price volatility means prices change a lot, not steadily. The host is saying lenders may be nervous about EVs because their prices can swing quickly, which makes it harder to estimate what the car will be worth later.

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Term

gas prices

"And the prices fluctuate so strongly with market demand and gas prices. [536.7s] Like we look at now, it's hard to value."

Gas prices are what you pay at the pump. The host is saying changes in gas prices can affect how much EVs are worth and how quickly they sell.

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Term

book

"So when I take a Tesla to a bank now, I need to get 140% of the book because the book hasn't caught up with the reality of the market right now."

“Book” here means a pricing reference number used to estimate a car’s value. The point is that the reference number is outdated compared to what buyers are actually paying right now.

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Concept

velocity model

"So because of the price fluctuations also leads the folks that are listening, if you're going to get into EV sales, it is a velocity model."

A “velocity model” in used-car retail means focusing on selling inventory quickly rather than waiting for the highest possible price. The host connects it to EVs because EV pricing can change fast, so dealers need fast turnover to avoid getting stuck with cars whose values drop.

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Concept

used market space

"It's about velocity and velocity is huge in the used market space. Everybody talks about it."

“Used market space” just means the world of selling pre-owned cars. The host is saying that how fast you sell matters because used-car prices can change.

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Term

battery warranty

"Again, they're just asking whatever they can ask. I think as the data comes in and they see less failure in battery packs, I think those aftermarket products will become more competitive and the price will start coming down when appropriate loss ratios are factored in."

A “battery warranty” is the protection plan for an EV’s battery. The host is saying dealers are pricing that protection as if failures are either more or less likely than they really are.

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battery pack

"I think as the data comes in and they see less failure in battery packs, I think those aftermarket products will become more competitive and the price will start coming down when appropriate loss ratios are factored in."

“Battery packs” are the big battery units inside an EV that provide the power. If they fail more (or less) than expected, it changes how expensive warranties and coverage plans become.

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Term

loss ratio

"I think those aftermarket products will become more competitive and the price will start coming down when appropriate loss ratios are factored in."

“Loss ratios” are a way insurers measure how much money they pay out in claims compared to what they collect. The host is saying the EV warranty/add-on pricing should get more accurate once the real claim rate is known.

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Term

aftermarket products

"I think as the data comes in and they see less failure in battery packs, I think those aftermarket products will become more competitive and the price will start coming down when appropriate loss ratios are factored in."

“Aftermarket products” are extras you buy for a car after it’s already been sold—often things like protection plans. The host is saying their price should change as people learn how often EV batteries actually fail.

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Term

reinsurance

"Long time, awesome sponsor of the podcast and who I use for all my reinsurance products. [663.3s] I can't thank them enough for teaching me so much about reinsurance over the years..."

Reinsurance is basically “insurance for the insurance company.” It helps spread out the risk so big claims don’t hurt the provider as much.

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Term

gap

"My customers have options of warranties and service contracts, gap. [676.9s] I think it's just been great, Jeff."

GAP coverage helps when your car is totaled or stolen and you still owe more than the car is worth. It covers the “gap” so you’re not stuck paying the difference.

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Term

service contracts

"My customers have options of warranties and service contracts, gap. [676.9s] I think it's just been great, Jeff."

A service contract is an agreement to help pay for repairs for a period of time. It’s like an extended warranty, usually sold separately by the dealer.

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Term

warranties

"My customers have options of warranties and service contracts, gap. [676.9s] I think it's just been great, Jeff."

A warranty is a promise that if something breaks, the company will help pay to fix it. Dealers use them to offer coverage to customers and manage repair risk.

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Term

electric motor

"And we were having this discussion, you and I, and I think that electric motors, yeah, they'll make it 500,000 miles. [713.4s] The batteries, we don't know yet."

Electric motors are what actually move an EV. The host thinks they can last a very long time, but the battery is the part people aren’t sure about yet.

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Term

batteries

"The batteries, we don't know yet. [715.9s] But the interior pieces and all that things falling apart and that that would be a big market."

In an EV, the battery pack stores the electricity that powers the car. The host says the motor might last a long time, but we don’t yet know how long the battery will last at extreme mileage.

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Car

Tesla Model S

"...Tesla was a luxury brand in the painting with the Model S and X, they were a luxury brand. The Model Y and ..."

The Tesla Model S is an all-electric car that’s built to feel like a luxury sedan. It’s known for being a higher-end Tesla model, so it often gets mentioned when people compare Tesla’s more premium cars to its more affordable ones. It doesn’t use gasoline—it runs on electricity.

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Car

Model X

"I mean, Tesla was a luxury brand in the painting with the Model S and X, they were a luxury brand. [732.4s] The Model Y and the Model 3, they are commodity..."

The Tesla Model X is an all-electric SUV known for its distinctive design and electric drivetrain. The host mentions it alongside the Model S to describe how Tesla’s earlier vehicles felt more “luxury” in materials and finish.

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Car

Tesla Model 3

"... X, they were a luxury brand. The Model Y and the Model 3, they are commodity from literally their plastic ..."

The Tesla Model 3 is an all-electric sedan meant to be a more affordable, practical Tesla. It’s designed for everyday driving and doesn’t use gasoline. In simple terms, it’s one of Tesla’s main mass-market models.

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Car

Tesla Model Y

"... the Model S and X, they were a luxury brand. The Model Y and the Model 3, they are commodity from literall..."

The Tesla Model Y is an all-electric SUV that’s designed to be more widely bought than Tesla’s most expensive models. It’s a practical, everyday-sized vehicle, and it runs on electricity instead of gasoline. Because it’s popular, it often shows up frequently in used and dealer listings.

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Term

synthetic leather

"The Model Y and the Model 3, they are commodity from literally their plastic and synthetic leather. [742.7s] So yes, there's a lot of wear and tear..."

Synthetic leather is a fake leather material used for seats and trim. The host is saying it may wear and age in a way that affects long-term durability.

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window switches

"steering wheels are being replaced, seats are pretty durable seats, but they get worn. [750.4s] The window switches get worn very easily."

Window switches are the buttons you use to roll the windows up and down. The host says these controls tend to wear out sooner than you’d expect.

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Term

reconditioning standpoint

"So I think it'll be really interesting when you're trying to run a car up to 300, 400,000 miles. [758.4s] What does that now look like from a reconditioning standpoint?"

“Reconditioning” means getting a high-mileage car back into good shape for selling or keeping. The host is asking what repairs will be most common at very high mileage.

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dents and dings

"It's maybe less about the major mechanical and it's more about the paint jobs and how many dents and dings and body panels have been painted."

These are small cosmetic problems on a car’s body. A “ding” is usually a small dent, and a “dent” is a bigger or deeper one.

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paint job

"It's maybe less about the major mechanical and it's more about the paint jobs and how many dents and dings and body panels have been painted."

A paint job is when the car’s outside gets repainted. If it’s been repainted many times, it often means the car had damage that needed fixing.

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body panels

"It's maybe less about the major mechanical and it's more about the paint jobs and how many dents and dings and body panels have been painted."

Body panels are the car’s outer parts you can see, like doors and fenders. If they’ve been repainted, it can suggest the car was damaged before.

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driver's seat

"And what's the interior look like? And can I swap the driver's seat out now? You know, because it's just worn straight through."

The driver’s seat is the seat you sit in to drive. If it’s worn out or torn, it can tell you the car has been used a lot.

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frame

"The chassis, the frame, the vign might last for a long time, but how many different paint jobs has it had?"

The frame is the car’s main supporting structure. If it’s damaged, it can affect safety and how the car holds up over time.

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chassis

"The chassis, the frame, the vign might last for a long time, but how many different paint jobs has it had?"

The chassis is the car’s main structure—the part that everything else mounts to. If the chassis is solid, the car may still be usable even if the exterior looks rough.

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interiors have been swapped out

"How many interiors have been swapped out? How many times has the carpet been swapped out?"

This means parts inside the car—like seats or trim—were replaced. If it’s happened a lot, it can suggest the car was used hard or needed repairs.

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carpet

"How many interiors have been swapped out? How many times has the carpet been swapped out?"

Carpet is the floor covering inside the car. If it’s been replaced, it can mean the original was worn out or damaged.

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Term

repos

"How many subprime buyers have been in that car? Because we know what happens to those repos. They sometimes, if you really want to use yourself and you're at an auction one day, go to the Westlake Lane and just start looking through the doors."

“Repos” means the car gets taken back by the lender. When that happens, the car often ends up with more wear and sometimes missing or damaged parts.

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Place

Westlake Lane

"They sometimes, if you really want to use yourself and you're at an auction one day, go to the Westlake Lane and just start looking through the doors."

“Westlake Lane” sounds like a specific place where cars are auctioned or stored. The host is saying you can go there and look closely at vehicles.

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Term

lenders

"What else is interesting to you while we've been out here? So when you say that about Westlake, I mean, I've seen a lot of lenders."

Here, “lenders” are the companies that provide the money for car loans. The episode is talking about which lenders are still active and how that affects the market.

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Company

CAP one

"So I think there are people out there signing up that haven't been signing up independence for a while or actually starting to sign up. We got a call from CAP one other day and we had not reached out to them."

“CAP one” sounds like a financial company that provides loans. The hosts mention they got a call from them.

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Term

buy here, pay here

"I need to go after the buy here, pay here folks at 12% or 18%. Or 24%, which I saw one come through today."

“Buy here, pay here” means the car lot both sells you the car and finances your payments. It’s often used by people with less-than-perfect credit, so the interest rate can be higher.

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Term

charge off

"Assuming they have the appetite and assuming the delinquencies and the charge off, stay in line and, you know."

A “charge off” is when a lender gives up trying to collect on a loan and treats it as a loss. Lenders track this to understand how risky a type of borrower is.

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down payment

"One quick topic of outside lenders and down payments. I hear buy here, pay here, stores out there talking about they can't get a down payment at this and another."

A down payment is the money you pay upfront when you buy the car. It lowers the loan amount, which can help you qualify and can reduce the lender’s risk.

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Concept

low balance trade cycle

"And one thing we did notice is that maybe we started to process a little too late in the subprime trade in the low balance trade cycle."

A “low balance trade cycle” is the dealer/finance workflow of when customers with a relatively small remaining loan balance become good candidates to trade. The episode frames it as a timing window—start the conversation at a certain remaining balance/loan age so the customer can roll into a new deal without the trade becoming financially unworkable.

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Concept

subprime trade

"And one thing we did notice is that maybe we started to process a little too late in the subprime trade in the low balance trade cycle."

“Subprime trade” means the customer is considered higher risk for financing. That can make it harder to get approved, so dealers have to start the trade conversation early enough to make the numbers work.

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Concept

time and loan

"It's relative to your loan. I look at time and loan. Okay."

The hosts are saying you should look at two things: how much time is left on the loan and how much you still owe. That helps decide when a trade conversation is likely to work.

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Term

no commitment lease

"It's almost like a no commitment lease. Yeah. And you're like, hey, great."

It’s a lease that’s meant to feel flexible, not like you’re stuck for a long time. The idea is you can return the car after the set period and get into another one.

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Term

trade it in

"I'm going to have you in this car for 24 months and then you're going to come in and trade it in, quote unquote. Give it back and I'll get you into another one for another 24 months."

It means you bring your current car back to the dealer and use it toward the cost of a new car. The dealer then helps you get into the next one.

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Concept

remarketing those people

"You know, okay, I sold this car to this customer and I know they had a 60 month loan. At what point do we start remarketing those people? Because I just wonder if that ever happens."

It means the dealer plans ahead to contact customers again later—like when their lease is ending. The goal is to get them to come back to the dealer instead of shopping elsewhere.

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Concept

car club

"I spoke with a dealer last night that's looking to doing more of a car club, you know, more of a, even a step away from leasing, where it's like, hey, this is basically a cash rental on 12 months."

A “car club” is like a membership program where you get access to cars and can switch them after a set time. It’s designed to make it easier to keep coming back.

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Term

cash rental

"where it's like, hey, this is basically a cash rental on 12 months. Yeah. And we take care of everything, tires, oil changes, everything."

They’re describing a straightforward 12-month arrangement that works like renting a car. Instead of complex lease terms, it’s treated more like a direct paid program.

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Term

tires, oil changes

"And we take care of everything, tires, oil changes, everything. And you come back to us in 12 months and you get to pick a new one from your section."

They’re saying the program covers things like tires and oil changes. That way, you don’t have to worry about those extra costs separately.

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Term

gold tier

"And you come back to us in 12 months and you get to pick a new one from your section. You know, you're in the gold tier, the silver tier. I'd pick another one."

“Gold tier” means you’re in a higher membership level. That level determines what cars you’re allowed to choose from when you come back.

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Term

negative equity

"And you're like just getting slaughtered on negative equity. Getting slaughtered."

Negative equity means your current car is worth less than what you still owe on it. When you trade it in, that “shortfall” usually gets added to your next purchase, making the new deal cost more.

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Company

GM

"The Cadillac, GM and Cadillac, I think, tried this before COVID and it didn't work. They could not figure out the numbers."

GM is General Motors, one of the big car companies. Here, the point is that even a huge company like GM couldn’t accurately predict the financial math needed for a vehicle program.

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Term

residuals

"They could not figure out the numbers. And if a company the size of GM can't figure out the residuals and the amount of money it's going to take to make this happen..."

Residuals are an estimate of what a car will be worth in the future. If that future value estimate is off, it can make leasing or trade-in programs much harder to make profitable.

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residual values

"And if a company the size of GM can't figure out the residuals and the amount of money it's going to take to make this happen..."

Residual value is what the car is expected to be worth later on. If that estimate is wrong, the deal can end up costing more than planned.

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Term

OEM

"I think the affordability factor on a nicer, newer car would make it very hard for OEMs to pull this off..."

OEMs are the actual car makers. The idea here is that if the program would make payments too expensive, it becomes hard for the car companies to pull off.

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Car

Cadillac Escalade

"Put someone into a 2026 Escalade on a rental type."

The Cadillac Escalade is a large, high-end SUV. Here, they’re using a 2026 Escalade as an example of a luxury vehicle you might put someone into with a rental/lease-like setup.

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Term

luxury lease

"We take care of everything programmed for 24 months, at least a luxury lease, you would almost call it."

A luxury lease is basically renting a luxury car for a fixed time with monthly payments. At the end, you usually return the car (or sometimes buy it), and the deal is based on expected value and usage rules.

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Term

24 months

"We take care of everything programmed for 24 months, at least a luxury lease, you would almost call it."

“24 months” just means the program runs for two years. Here, they’re saying the setup covers you for that length of time.

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Term

payment platform

"You know, they're not just a payment platform, not just a processor, but they're also a collections platform and analytics platform and who knows what else Robin and the team are going to get into."

A payment platform is the system that handles collecting money from customers. In car deals, it can automate monthly payments so dealers don’t have to manage everything by hand.

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Term

collections platform

"You know, they're not just a payment platform, not just a processor, but they're also a collections platform and analytics platform and who knows what else Robin and the team are going to get into."

A collections platform helps companies chase down overdue payments. In the car business, it can track who hasn’t paid yet and help handle follow-ups in a structured way.

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analytics platform

"You know, they're not just a payment platform, not just a processor, but they're also a collections platform and analytics platform and who knows what else Robin and the team are going to get into."

An analytics platform is a tool that looks at data and turns it into useful insights. For dealers, it can help them understand what’s happening with customers and payments.

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Term

AIS

"Yeah. Data is hard to process from just everyday dealers, but Blitz is going to harness that and they're going to harness AI and they're going to combine that with payment platforms"

AI means “smart computer” technology that can analyze information and help make decisions. In this segment, they’re saying it can help dealers understand data and manage payments better.

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