Market insights reveal that Q4 2025 is shaping up to be an optimal time for purchasing new or used vehicles. With used car sales slowing and inventory levels rising, buyers may find better deals as dealerships are pressured to reduce prices on aged inventory. The hosts discuss the impact of rising interest rates and the overall health of the used car market, while also highlighting the new car market's potential for significant discounts as manufacturers aim to boost sales. The episode emphasizes strategic timing for buyers looking to maximize savings.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest news from Edmunds and Cox which make it seem like the tide could be turning for the auto industry. Tune in to learn more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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"The used vehicle market remains strong. Cox Automotive is projecting used vehicle sales between 37.9 and 38.5 million cars for the year."
Cox Automotive is a company that helps car dealerships and buyers understand the car market better. They provide data and insights about how many cars are being sold and what the market looks like.
Cox Automotive is a leading provider of automotive services and data, including insights into vehicle sales and market trends. They analyze both new and used car markets to provide valuable information to dealerships and consumers.
"The used vehicle market remains strong. Cox Automotive is projecting used vehicle sales between 37.9 and 38.5 million cars for the year."
The used vehicle market is where people buy and sell cars that have been owned before. It's a big part of the car industry and can change based on how many cars are available and how much people want to buy them.
The used vehicle market refers to the buying and selling of pre-owned cars. It is an important segment of the automotive industry, often influenced by factors such as economic conditions, vehicle availability, and consumer demand.
"they look at what they think they might be able to get for, say, that Bronco at the auction right now, perhaps they would be better off just taking a shorter deal from a customer."
The Ford Bronco is a tough SUV that's great for off-roading and outdoor adventures. It's popular among people who like to drive in rough terrains.
The Ford Bronco is a classic off-road vehicle that has been revived in recent years, known for its rugged design and capability. It appeals to enthusiasts and those looking for adventure vehicles.
"the current price is $33,500, but they'd previously had it up in the 34s."
MSRP is the price that car makers suggest dealers sell their cars for. It's a starting point for how much you might pay for a new car.
MSRP stands for Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, which is the price that the manufacturer recommends a dealer sell a vehicle for. It helps buyers understand the starting price for a vehicle before negotiations.
"Here's another vehicle. This time it's a 2022 Jeep Grand Cherokee."
The Jeep Grand Cherokee is a popular SUV that can handle rough roads and has a lot of space inside for passengers and cargo. The 2022 model includes modern features and comforts.
The 2022 Jeep Grand Cherokee is a midsize SUV known for its off-road capabilities, luxury features, and spacious interior. It's a popular choice for families and adventure seekers alike.
"...we are finally starting to see on the used car side at the wholesale auction's prices decline instead of appreciate."
A wholesale auction is where car dealers buy and sell used cars in large quantities. It's different from regular car sales because the cars are sold to dealers, not individual buyers.
A wholesale auction is a marketplace where used vehicles are sold in bulk to dealers rather than directly to consumers. Prices at these auctions can fluctuate based on supply and demand, impacting the overall used car market.
"...this really is a huge update for the used car market as we head into the fourth..."
The used car market is where people buy and sell cars that have been owned before. Prices can change based on how many cars are available and how many people want to buy them.
The used car market refers to the buying and selling of pre-owned vehicles. Factors such as inventory levels, demand, and auction prices can significantly influence this market.
"...I'm asking for the out the door price, I'm showing legitimate interest, I probably have some negotiating leverage..."
The out-the-door price is how much you will actually pay for a car after adding everything up, like taxes and fees. It's important to know this total before you buy a car.
The out-the-door price (OTD) is the total cost of purchasing a vehicle, including the price of the car, taxes, registration fees, and any additional dealer fees or add-ons. It's the final amount you will pay to drive the car off the lot.
"...ask for the oldest vehicle in inventory. If it's a used car, say, what are your over-aged used cars that you're looking to get rid of..."
Over-aged used cars are cars that have been sitting at the dealership for a long time. Dealers might want to sell these quickly, so they may offer better deals on them.
Over-aged used cars are vehicles that have been in a dealership's inventory for an extended period, often longer than typical. Dealerships may be more willing to negotiate on these cars to clear them out and make space for newer inventory.
"Explain what a spiff is. That's some lingo that I'm not sure everyone knows. A spiff is an extra bonus that you get for selling certain vehicles that have been hard to sell."
A spiff is like a reward for car salespeople when they sell certain cars, especially ones that might not be selling well. It's extra money they can earn on top of their regular pay.
A spiff is an additional bonus or incentive given to salespeople for selling specific vehicles, often those that are harder to sell. It serves as a motivation to promote certain cars more aggressively.
"...k on any of them. Let's let's let's do this Honda Accord right here. Got a bunch of miles on it. Wow."
The Honda Accord is a type of car that is known for being very reliable and good on gas. Many people like it because it has a lot of space inside and is comfortable to drive, making it a great option for families or anyone who needs a practical vehicle.
The Honda Accord is a mid-size sedan known for its reliability, spacious interior, and fuel efficiency. It has been a popular choice among families and commuters since its introduction in 1976, often praised for its balance of performance and comfort. This car is frequently discussed due to its reputation as a dependable vehicle that holds its value well over time.
"...I've typed in Penske. Now we're looking at Penske dealerships that have inventory in this area."
Penske is a company that owns many car dealerships. They sell different car brands like Honda and Acura.
Penske is a well-known automotive group that operates a variety of dealerships across the United States, representing multiple brands including Honda and Acura.
"Go to Ferrari, North Scottsdale. Those would be the only stores and maybe the Porsche store."
Ferrari is a famous car brand from Italy that makes very fast and expensive sports cars. They are well-known for racing and have a strong history in motorsports.
Ferrari is an Italian luxury sports car manufacturer known for its high-performance vehicles and success in motorsport, particularly Formula 1.
"I remember I had a lot of new car sales because of drum roll please, electric vehicles. That being said, sales were actually off 14.2%."
Electric vehicles are cars that run on electricity instead of gas. They are getting more popular because they are better for the environment and technology is improving.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are cars that are powered entirely or partially by electricity, rather than traditional gasoline or diesel. They are becoming increasingly popular due to their environmental benefits and advancements in battery technology.
"The majority of the market are these ICE vehicles, these hybrid vehicles, and they have an oversupply of those too."
Hybrid vehicles are cars that use both a gasoline engine and an electric motor. This helps them save fuel and produce less pollution than regular cars.
Hybrid vehicles combine an internal combustion engine with an electric motor, allowing for improved fuel efficiency and reduced emissions compared to traditional ICE vehicles. They can operate on either power source or both simultaneously.
"...to not have EV sales fall off a cliff because of the end of the federal tax credits."
Federal tax credits are discounts you can get from the government when you buy an electric car. They help lower the price you pay for the car.
Federal tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs) are financial incentives provided by the government to encourage the purchase of electric cars. These credits can significantly reduce the overall cost of an EV for buyers.
"...there's two things. One are the incentives and the other would be the price history."
Incentives are like discounts or special deals that car companies offer to help sell their cars. They can make buying a car cheaper or more appealing.
In the automotive context, incentives refer to discounts or special offers provided by manufacturers or dealers to encourage customers to purchase a vehicle. These can include cash rebates, low-interest financing, or lease deals.
"...the incentives and the other would be the price history."
Price history shows how much a car has cost in the past. It helps people know if the current price is fair or if it's gone up or down.
Price history refers to the record of a vehicle's selling price over time. This information can help buyers understand how the price of a car has changed and whether it is currently a good deal.
"...and the market day supply as well. 274, that's really high."
Market day supply tells you how long it would take to sell all the cars available right now. If there are a lot of cars, buyers can often negotiate better prices.
Market day supply is a metric that indicates how many days it would take to sell the current inventory of vehicles at the current sales rate. A high number suggests a surplus of vehicles, giving buyers more negotiating power.
"...that's really high. That means there's a lot of negotiating leverage"
Negotiating leverage means how much power you have to get a better deal when buying a car. If there are lots of cars available, you can often ask for a lower price.
Negotiating leverage refers to the advantage a buyer has in negotiations, often influenced by factors like market conditions and supply. When supply is high, buyers typically have more power to negotiate lower prices.
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It's noon here in Ventner City, New Jersey and our nation's capital, Washington, D.C.
And this is Car Edge Live for Wednesday, October 8th with your hosts, me, Ray here
in windy, wet, miserable Ventner City and Zach hanging out with the Saguaros in Arizona
somewhere.
Now, I'm in Washington, D.C.
Folks, good to be back with you Wednesday, October 8th.
Today's show, however, is brought to you by CarEdge.com.
Buy a car without the headaches.
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Did an interview this morning, Dad, with CBS 5 in Arizona, that's why I'm wearing
my Cardinals gear and the Arizona background.
But the story this morning, Dad, this comes by way of Cox Automotive.
Every single quarter, they provide us with these Mannheim used vehicle value updates,
these quarterly outlooks for what they're seeing in the new and used car market.
And I have a huge update for Q4 2025 that could be making the case, Dad, that right
now heading into the fourth quarter is the best time to buy a new or used vehicle.
So what I want to jump into here, I'm going to scroll all the way down, is right
there.
While strong overall used vehicle market ends Q3 with worrying signs.
So let me read some of this data out to you and then we'll get your take on timing the
new and used car market.
They also provide some context here for new cars.
So here we go, Pops.
You ready?
Yes.
The used vehicle market remains strong.
Cox Automotive is projecting used vehicle sales between 37.9 and 38.5 million cars
for the year.
So that's actually slightly up from where they were at the beginning of the year.
That being said, there's some caution as we head into Q4.
This comes from Jonathan Smoke, one of their head economists over there.
Quote, the signs for the last few weeks are not promising.
September ended with used vehicle prices at their highest point since the start of
the year.
Yet used vehicle sales have seen a slowdown and when coupling that with interest rates
moving up the picture for Q4 isn't the prettiest.
We actually saw, Dad, some depreciation in used vehicle prices, which for a long
period here, we haven't seen used vehicle prices come down.
And we're seeing, if I scroll down even further, retail used vehicle sales actually
going down while inventory is increasing.
So let's just stick with used cars for a moment here.
Yes.
You've got inventories building up.
You've got sales going down.
You've got the chief economist at Cox Automotive saying, you know what?
The end of September looks pretty rough.
I'm not super bullish about Q4.
What's your take on this?
Is there a best time to buy and could it be right now?
Well, I would think it would be soonish if all their data is correct.
And why I mean soonish and not like right this very minute is let the inventory levels build
up a little more, let sales slow down a little more, let some of the inventory age as most
dealerships have an aging policy where the used car manager has to move his used car inventory
every 60 to 90 days.
Anything approaching 60 to 90 days either gets a huge price cut or gets sent to the auction.
So if we saw inventories go up and sales go down in September, then you could extrapolate
out that probably by November and December if it continues along the same path that, yeah,
these dealers are going to have to lower the prices on their inventory at hand because
that's the only way they're going to be able to sell it.
And think about it on the used car side, you always have this kind of off or pressure
shift.
What the heck is the word I'm looking for?
Off valve.
I'm just, I want to say off ramp, off ramp.
That was the word I was looking for.
You have this off ramp, which is you take the cars to the auction and they're the longest
time they're dead.
Wholesale prices were actually going up, but they're not anymore.
That's what we're finally starting to see is wholesale prices are starting to depreciate
again, which means you can't just turn and send something to the auction that you previously
would have had to discount the sale to a retail customer.
Let's go early to a live experiment.
Let's go to the car edge car search.
I clicked on shop used and one of the things I want to do here data is I want
to come over here and I want to look at days on market as a filter.
So what you were just saying is what was the term policy you were describing?
The aging policy for most dealerships is somewhere between 60 and 90 days.
Okay.
So why don't we look at vehicles that have been on dealers lots for 102, wait for it, wait
for it.
It's loading.
Well, in most cases, those dealerships would have gotten rid of those cars.
So that's what I want to look is 100 to 150 days.
There are nationwide 204,000 used cars for sale right now that have been on dealers
lots between 100 and 150 days.
So over what you're saying is the typical aging policy at a dealership and what I'm interested
in here, dad, is like, let's first one.
Let's just click on it.
Let's see what happens.
What I'm interested here is to look at the price history of this vehicle.
So I'm going to come down.
Okay.
Here's the price history chart for this particular vehicle.
Let's just look at it in this format for a second.
I mean, I think we can see exactly what you were just describing when we look at the price
history of this first example.
Talk us through what you're seeing here.
Well, originally when it was offered for sale back on August 26, the listing price
was $29,358.
Today, it's $26,900.
That's what $2,400 difference approximately, $2,458 difference from when they first offered
it for sale to what it is today because, well, it is an aged unit.
And I have worked for dealerships where the aging policy was very strict.
At the Penske organization, it was typically 60 days at that time.
And you could ask for an exception or two for some vehicles to keep them an extra 30 days
to 90 days at the longest.
But most well-run dealerships have an aging policy that requires the vehicles to be gone
by a certain number of days that it's been sitting on the lot.
So if there's dealerships out there that are holding on to these cars for 120, 100, or
150 days, yeah, you should see price reductions.
And I would think based on probably what's going on at the auctions at the moment, if
they look at what they think they might be able to get for, say, that Bronco at
the auction right now, perhaps they would be better off just taking a shorter deal from
a customer.
Yeah.
And they won't lose nearly as much money.
So look at this, Ted.
Here's another vehicle.
This time it's a 2022 Jeep Grand Cherokee.
But the same dealership group, and what I want you to see here is, look at that.
The current price is $33,500, but they'd previously had it up in the 34s.
And so it's a good example here from the same dealership group that's operating in
a way where, obviously, to your point, the longer they sit on this inventory,
they just have to go down on price.
And what's interesting is when we look at the data, so again, I'll pull back up
what we have from Cox Automotive, they're showing us in black and white here that
vehicle sales are going down, inventory is increasing, and we are finally starting
to see on the use car side at the wholesale auction's prices decline
instead of appreciate.
That is why you can come to a show like today and say that this really
is a huge update for the used car market as we head into the fourth
quarter of 2025.
Those examples that we just shared, what was it that the total number was
like 204,000?
Yeah, there are 204,769 used cars for sale nationwide that have been on
dealers lots for over 100 days, but less than 150 days.
That's the sweet spot right now.
Like if you are shopping for a used car, please, folks, go use the car
edge car search, go click on shop used and set that filter 100 to 150 days.
These are the cars that are already being discounted.
And keep me honest here, Dad, if I'm a customer
and I reach out to you and I'm serious, I'm asking for the out the door price,
I'm showing legitimate interest, I probably have some negotiating leverage,
right? Because it is sitting there longer.
I do know inventory is building and I know sales have been down.
Absolutely.
I don't know how many times we have done videos where I have said as a
customer, if you go into a dealership and whether it be a new car or used
car, ask for the oldest vehicle in inventory.
If it's a used car, say, what are your over-aged used cars that you're looking
to get rid of, that you might be willing to take an even shorter deal
than what the advertised price is?
And trust me, the used car manager has placed a spiff on those vehicles
to get rid of them.
Explain what a spiff is.
That's some lingo that I'm not sure everyone knows.
A spiff is an extra bonus that you get for selling certain vehicles
that have been hard to sell.
So the used car manager might say on an aged vehicle like that,
the minimum commission will be $500 and the average commission might only
be $250 or $300 or the used car manager might say the minimum commission
is whatever the minimum commission is, but there's a $300 spiff on
top of that, a $300 bonus on top of that for selling that vehicle.
And typically there is a list and at most dealerships, you know,
when it comes to used cars, the list shouldn't be all that long
if they're doing their job right.
But there could be four or five cars that might be on that list that
the used car manager is desperate to get rid of and has added
this extra bonus to whatever salesperson sells it.
And the same happens on the new car side.
Well, one more example for used cars just to show that this is
geographically kind of happening everywhere.
So I went on the car edge car search and I changed the zip code over
there on the left, right above my dad's head to Scottsdale, Arizona,
where I used to live, where we used to live.
Yes.
Back in Arizona, whatever I can't zoom in on.
There you go, 85254 right there above his head.
And dad, you've got here still two hundred and four thousand used cars
for sale and I don't know which one do you want to click on?
We could literally click on any of them.
Let's let's let's do this Honda Accord right here.
Got a bunch of miles on it. Wow.
OK, so we've got a 2020 Honda Accord XL.
Again, these are live experiments.
Let's see what happens here.
How many miles?
Seventy. Where was it?
Seventy seven.
Seventy.
Almost seventy two.
Seventy two.
A lot of miles.
Well, you know, it's a it's a pretty wide valley.
This is an interesting price history chart, actually.
So they originally listed it.
It's going all the way back, all the way back, all the way back.
Man, they've had this one for a while.
Can you go back to twenty twenty two?
No, no, no, I'm going back to twenty twenty five.
So they originally listed it twenty four to twenty.
In March.
In March.
In March.
So let's try and understand.
As they lowered the price, they lowered the price, they lowered the price,
they lowered the price, they jacked the price back up.
They lowered the price, they lowered the price, they lowered the price,
they jacked the price back up.
Yeah, would would seem to me that maybe they're using it as a price
leader and they have absolutely no intention of ever selling it at whatever
the advertised price is.
I don't know.
I mean, I don't know why you'd be sitting on a car for seven months.
It it it doesn't.
It is a pre-owned car.
Typically, other than in covid times.
A pre-owned car is not appreciating in value.
It is depreciating in value from the moment you either buy it at
the auction or you trade it at the dealership.
But dad, I think there's actually a really easy story.
Here. OK, I want to hear this.
This vehicle, let's scroll all the way down, all the way down,
all the way down, all the way down.
This is at Bell Road, Toyota. OK.
This is potentially. Yeah.
How Bell Road, Toyota just so happens to price their used vehicle inventory.
And the reason I say that is because I've picked on a different vehicle
here that we can look at together.
This is that AutoNation CDJR Ram CDJR, excuse me, in North Phoenix.
OK. Now look at how they priced this particular vehicle,
which they've had 142 days. OK.
Much more reasonable price history here.
You mean it starts high and goes down?
I mean, look at this.
Well, listed it for sale back in May at twenty seven thousand two hundred
and sixteen bucks. Yes.
The current advertised price for that same vehicle is four thousand
dollars less at twenty three one six two.
Oh, that would that would be the normal way of doing it.
Right. So I think this could actually just be like I look back again
at this Honda that we were looking at, which is at that one one dealership.
They seem to be playing the price drop notification game.
Good day. The price on Tuesday dropped the price on Wednesday.
The customer or the user gets a notification price drop
come into the dealership by the vehicle versus this dealership,
this AutoNation dealership.
This is textbook.
I mean, again, we do this stuff live.
So I didn't like cherry pick this.
This is textbook, but you described that every couple of weeks
they were lower in the price by a few hundred bucks all the way
all the way to the place where it's four thousand dollars less today
than it was in May.
And and here's the really interesting part.
Hasn't hasn't worked for either one of them.
It is fascinating to look at this chart.
Yes, compared to this is so interesting.
I love doing this live.
Yeah, I mean, this is.
Yeah, is it to use cars that both dealerships
have been holding on to for a hundred between 100 and 150 days
to totally different styles of how they're pricing it to try and sell it.
So fascinating.
And one in the AutoNation store.
That one is the norm, let's say, as opposed to the other one.
And and I can't imagine.
I really can't at AutoNation that they would ever allow
one of their dealerships to keep a used car for 150 days.
I just, you know, a small mom and pop stores.
Medium sized mom and pop stores, I worked for some, you know,
where where we believe that our used car inventory was like a fine line
and it would only get better with age and that ultimately we would
regardless of how many days it took, whether it was a year or two years.
Ultimately, we would have the only one left in the country that was available
and somebody would have to pay our price if they wanted it.
Yeah. Now, that doesn't make good sense to me,
especially if you have $30,000 or $20,000 tied up in something
and you're waiting two years to get a return on that investment.
Just seems seems foolish to do it that way.
And I can't for the life of me believe an organization as big as AutoNation
would give their used car managers or their general managers
enough rope to allow them to keep their used car inventories 150 days.
It just but I'm telling you at the Penske organization,
it was a strict 60 day turn.
Yeah. And if it wasn't retailed in 60 days,
it either went to our internal auction that was done
where we had used car buyers come in and bid on the vehicles
on I believe it was Tuesdays or it went to the auction
and it was disposed of because the Penske organization
realizes that you're limiting your return on your investment
the longer you hold it.
Definitely.
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Dad, we're gonna put it to the test
and then we're gonna talk about the new car market here.
So for those of you that have been waiting,
new cars coming soon.
Another feature that we have,
back on the Car Edge Car Search.
So again, I'm on shop used.
I've set the days on market.
So how long has the vehicle been sitting
between 100 and 150 days?
Dad, I've also come now down
to the dealership filter here
and I've typed in Penske.
Now we're looking at Penske dealerships
that have inventory in this area.
So I'm gonna choose Penske Honda.
I guess that's over in Indianapolis.
Let's not do that.
Let's go vehicles for sale.
Or actually, Dad, what was one of the Penske dealerships?
Cause it'll show up as like Acura North Scottsdale, right?
Yeah.
Okay.
So let's do Acura North Scottsdale.
That was the dealership that you used to run.
Yeah.
See if I can get it to come up here.
McLaren Scottsdale Acura of North Tampa.
No, Scottsdale?
Interesting.
I'm not seeing that pop up.
Why don't we do BMW of North Scottsdale?
Is that okay?
Yeah.
That was all part of the same campus.
Yep.
So let's see how this Penske dealership, BMW, you wanna do?
I don't know.
I don't wanna do it.
I don't wanna do a 2025.
Let's do a slightly older one.
Wow.
They have a lot of used 2025s with zero models.
I'll be retired service loaners.
Holy shoot.
Look at all of them.
They're retired.
But what you have to realize, especially with BMW.
And now that they have inventory again.
So many of these are 26s too.
They ask their dealers to dump a poop ton of cars
into service loaner fleet.
And so, and they're allowed to turn them
as quickly as they want.
What is going on?
So that's why you'd have so many.
Yeah, but dad, all of their used car inventory
between 100 and 150 days are service loaners.
I don't have a single one in here
that isn't a service loaner.
Okay, so those are probably the exception to the rule.
Okay, but let's look at Audi here.
Let's see.
Oh my gosh, Audi's going to be the same thing.
We just proved exactly what you said,
which is Penske doesn't let their dealers
hold used car inventory more than 60 days.
All of the ones that are over 100 days
are all service loaners.
This is so interesting.
Go to McLaren, North Scottsdale.
Go to Ferrari, North Scottsdale.
Those would be the only stores
and maybe the Porsche store.
Yeah, you could be.
Where they would allow the occasional exception
because, well, you can't replicate the vehicle.
You know, dad, that's why accurate
didn't show up in the filter there because there's zero.
More than likely.
Wow, this is so interesting.
It's so interesting.
Okay, well, anyway, folks, the point is,
the point is, the point is,
obviously use the used car search.
It's really compelling what you're able
to figure out in there.
But the point is, the longer these vehicles sit,
some dealerships don't even allow their dealers to have it,
AKA Penske is a good example of that.
Other dealers have very clear,
linear downward trends of price discounts
and other dealers are gonna try and get you
on the price drop notification.
No matter how you slice it and dice it,
inventory is building back up on the used car side,
slowly but surely, and sales are down,
gives you the customer leverage,
especially on that aged inventory.
Wow, 20 minutes of just used car market talk.
I like that.
You wanna talk new cars for a second?
Okay, just jipping only for a second.
The headline here from Cox Automotive,
new vehicle sales decrease in September.
Sales pace remains steady.
So here's what's interesting.
Yes.
I remember I had a lot of new car sales
because of drum roll please, electric vehicles.
That being said, sales were actually off 14.2%
from August to September.
And that includes the huge pull ahead
in people buying electric vehicles,
which we know goes away now that we're in October.
And so, Dad, the new car market
has growing inventory even more rapidly
than the used car market.
And there was a pull ahead in demand
for electric vehicles last month.
That no longer exists here in October.
I think the new car market,
we've talked about it for a long time.
The best time to buy a new car
is the fourth quarter of the year.
It's looking, it's setting up
to be a pretty strong buyers market, I think,
in Q4.25.
Any number of the manufacturers
have already said when it comes to their EVs,
we're just gonna discount our vehicles
by the amount of, and then so.
I don't even wanna talk EVs, Meg.
It's such a small portion,
all the pull ahead, EV Schmivi.
The majority of the market are these ICE vehicles,
these hybrid vehicles,
and they have an oversupply of those too.
I'm just saying that in an effort
to not have EV sales fall off a cliff
because of the end of the federal tax credits
that many of the manufacturers have decided,
at least for a month,
to continue the program,
but they're funding it themselves,
and they're doing it by just offering
an additional $7,500 discount
on a purchase or a lease.
And when I see that,
it says to me,
what the hell were we underwriting the program
for in the first place?
I don't wanna talk about EVs.
I know you don't wanna talk about EVs.
Oh, man, I just don't wanna.
So I just wanted to make that point.
That's all.
Okay?
Sometimes just have to allow me
to make my point and we can move on.
All we talked about, folks,
if you tuned into the show in September
was EV this, EV that, EV this, EV that.
We're finally done with freaking EVs.
The government's not underwriting them anymore
to your point that manufacturers
are the ones that have to do it now,
but that 90% of the market are non-electric vehicles.
And what are we seeing?
Month over month sales in the auto industry
for new cars were down 14.2%.
We know inventory is building up.
It's inventory of hybrids and ICE vehicles
because the automakers have already stopped production
of these electric vehicles.
They knew they weren't selling.
They knew they weren't going to be producing more of them.
Here you go.
These EVs have been canceled or postponed in the US.
So the big story here, Ted, the big story.
TNU up, baby.
The big story.
Big story.
What's the big story?
Is it actually the best time?
I'm swarming behind you.
Let me through.
Is it actually the best time to buy a new car?
I'm giving you the floor.
Is it actually the best time to buy a new car?
We just painted the case
for why the used car market's looking interesting
in the Q4.
What about new cars, Ted?
Not EVs.
It will be.
It will be.
It always is.
The fourth quarter is always the best time.
That's when the manufacturers throw the most money
towards incentives.
Is it now?
No.
It'll be November and December.
Those are the two best months.
And the best, best, best time to buy a new car
or a used car is the week between Christmas and New Year's.
Hasn't changed.
Probably won't change.
Probably will be that way forever
because everybody is pushing to hit sales goals,
whether it be the manufacturers,
whether it be the individual dealerships,
whether it be the individual sales people in dealerships.
And so there is so much emotion tied up
in hitting these goals
that oftentimes dealers will take a deal or two
that they would have never considered
during any other time of the year.
And I think what's interesting to me, Ted,
is if we look at where we are right now,
what information we have
to inform what we expect to see happen
in November and December, it's weakening.
There's weakness in the new car market.
You cannot tell me
that you have all this pull ahead demand
in September for all the reasons we've noted
and yet still sales are off almost 15% month over month.
So there's a little bit of foreshadowing
that I think we are privileged enough to be able to do
to say, hey, there's weakening going on
which should set us up for huge incentives, big discounts,
lots of negotiating leverage for buyers
as we head into the end of the fourth quarter.
And I will do live experiment here in a second
but I wanna hear your reaction to that.
Well, and I think that some of the manufacturers
are indicating by what they're doing
on the EV side of things, that they are going
and are willing to highly incentivize
the sale of new vehicles moving forward.
I understand the extra cost to move those EVs
but I think they're going to find themselves
in a position where they're going to have
to throw extra money at non-EVs.
And I think by what they're doing towards the EVs
we're seeing that there is a willingness to do that.
That some of these manufacturers have decided
it is time to increase our market share
and the only way they know how to do it is to buy it.
And what do I mean by that?
They increase the incentives dramatically
in order to make such a compelling story
that the customer goes, I don't have a say no to that.
Yeah, I think you're right, Dad.
But let's do a little bit of live experimentation right now.
So now, instead of shopping for used cars
I clicked on shop new.
And what I'm interested here, Dad,
is I actually wanna see what the incentives are
and also what the advertised prices have been
for particular vehicles.
Do you have a particular make and model
that you're interested in looking at, Dad?
I'm thinking, I don't know, I don't, I have, no.
I'm curious what Jeep's up to
because we know they've been struggling
trying to recapture some market share, things like that.
So let's look at new Jeeps
and let's do similarly to what we were looking at before.
I'm not gonna look at the dealership filter right now.
I wanna do days on market.
I'll say up to 150 days on market.
Trying 100 and 150 days, let's see here.
Give it a second to load.
Okay, so now we're looking at,
there are almost 20,000 new Jeeps for sale nationwide
that have been sitting on dealers lots
between 100 and 150 days.
And I just wanna click on,
I'll click on this first one here.
Wow, what an expensive vehicle.
But I'm curious about here, Dad,
there's two things.
One are the incentives
and the other would be the price history.
So I'm gonna come down here.
Yeah, and the market day supply as well.
274, that's really high.
That means there's a lot of negotiating leverage
as a customer.
Oh my, what is going on here?
Okay.
All right, well, it's a Jeep dealer.
Yeah, I think what they're probably doing,
let's go back even further.
Let's see.
Yeah, this is a pattern of their behavior.
They just jack the price all around
to probably do price drops.
So that's an interesting one.
Let's look at the incentives, however.
What story is that?
Just out of curiosity.
This was, let's see, Airpark Dodge Chrysler Jeep.
We're gonna look at a different one in a moment.
Yeah.
Dad, look at this.
The incentives aren't even that good.
The lease incentive right now.
This is a 6.72% APR, that's bad.
No, that's terrible.
That's worse than bad.
Wow, okay, so let's go back.
So let's not look at that dealership.
Let's look at a different dealership now.
So that was Airpark.
Let's look at the AutoNation one.
Sure.
All right.
AutoNation dealership has 56.
Or dad, look at Bill Luke.
They have 105 Jeeps that are new
that have been sitting for 100 to 150 days.
That's such great intelligence.
You wanna know which dealership
has the most age inventory.
There it is.
It's Bill Luke, Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, and Ram.
This is what I love about the CarEdge CarSearch.
But let's click on, how about this one?
114 days on the lot.
Dude, what are they doing here?
Why are they playing the price drop game?
It's really annoying.
Maybe because the incentives
are not that good so far for October.
Oh my God, they're really bad.
Okay, maybe that has something to do with it.
So what happens if you're Jeep dad
and you look mid month at your sales
and you're seeing nationwide,
your dealers are not selling cars
and you know it's because the incentives suck.
Yeah, and to your point,
they're gonna have to jack up the incentives.
That happens, I spent enough time
in retail automotive to see the brands
that I represented suddenly on the 15th of the month go,
well, the month didn't start out
quite the way we would have liked.
So we've decided to offer this incentive
or that incentive to try and jumpstart things.
So it happens.
You know, they're trying to evaluate
what it is that they're going to need to do
to move the metal.
You know, and we're only what, the eighth day of the month.
It's over the time.
Yeah, give them a little time to figure it out.
You know, certainly it should never be quite as bad
as it had been two years ago for Jeep.
Yeah, we'll see what happens.
But I think it's an interesting experiment
and kind of indicative of what's going on the auto industry.
I like from space here,
they're resetting their rankings
on the car listing website.
Yeah, that's what we see with all these price movements
and things like that.
Yeah, quickly for Jen, what'd we say about used cars?
You have some leverage,
which is a change in the used car market.
Used car sales on the retail side were down.
Inventory is slowly starting to build back up
and wholesale prices are going down.
That means our advice to you is wait
or find vehicles that are 100 to 150 days on the market.
Really anything past 60 days
is kind of what my dad's saying.
You have an opportunity
because the dealership's feeling pressure
to sell that used car.
And on new cars, excuse me,
we expect December to be the best deals,
the best opportunities,
but we're starting to see some weakening
in the new car market,
which gives us confidence to say
that the market conditions will get better
for shoppers and quite frankly worse
for dealers and automakers,
which is a good thing for those of you
that wanna save some money.
Now, final thing on saving some money,
if we can help you with anything.
Today on the show,
we used a lot of the tools back on caredge.com.
This is what we do day in, day out.
We help thousands of people save money.
So please, please, please folks, check out caredge.com
and learn a little bit more about why
so many people turn their attention to us
to get the help they need
when it comes to buying a new or used vehicle.
Pops, that's all I had for today.
Do it again tomorrow.
Um, excuse me, that would be my plan, absolutely.
And I'm actually looking forward to it.
I am too.
All right, folks, we'll be back tomorrow.
I love you, Pops.
Love you too, handsome, good seeing you again.
Like that jersey.
Yeah, yeah, buddy.
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